Cal was trending towards major disappointment before this recent run. Prior to this weekend, Cal hadn't won any road games in conference so maybe they are starting to figure things out. They went on the road in December and lost by 1 to Virginia in overtime and all 5 conference losses were by single digits.
They've risen to 26th in KenPom. Offense is 41st and defense is 29th. The high number on defense is driven by effective fg% defense. They are 4th in the nation with an effective fg% of 43.6% on defense and tops overall on 2pt defense. They also protect the defensive glass. Opponents rebound 25.5% of misses, 26th best.
The Bears offensive effective fg% is 53.2%, 44th best. They're loose with the ball. They have a turnover % of 18.3%, 187th. They're okay at rebounding on the offensive glass. They have an offensive rebounding % of 32.8%, 70th best. One potential flaw is free throw shooting. They only shoot 65.9% from the line and they do a good job getting to the line. Can they win close games at the line with the pressure ratcheted up?
The Bears have two of the nation's top frosh in the class in F Jaylen Brown and big man Ivan Rabb. Brown scores 15.7ppg and 5.5rpg. Rabb scores 12ppg and 8.3rpg. Rabb shoots 62% and along with Brown gets to the line. Senior Tyrone Wallace does it all. He scores 15.3ppg and adds 5.2rpg and 4.3apg. Brown and Wallace shoot plenty of 3's but don't scratch 30%. Junior Jordan Mathews shoots 45% from 3.
Cal's 5 game winning streak has included 4 wins by double digits. That includes a rout of Oregon. They get the LA schools at home this week before traveling to the desert to close the season. A 3-1 finish is expected and seems reasonable. These 4 games should tell us what Cal is capable of in March.
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