A-10

This past week, the tournament committee invited college basketball journalists to Indianapolis for a mock selection session. The committee chose 5 teams in this mock by having St. Bonaventure steal a bid by winning the A-10 tournament.

Current Tourney Teams

The current teams in the tournament would be Dayton, St. Joe's, VCU & George Washington.

Dayton looks like a lock. The other 3 probably can't afford any bad losses. As I wrote Thursday, St. Joe's is favored to win the rest of their games and if they do, they'd win the regular season title. 

VCU won their first 9 league games but have lost two straight. The first was at home against GW and then had a bad loss at UMass. They challenged themselves in non-conference but didn't win any of those games. They don't have any room for error.

George Washington is in but they have even less room for error. They got smoked at DePaul and have a home loss to Richmond and at St. Louis. The Colonials are also only 88th in KenPom.

The Wildcard 

The committee put St. Bonaventure in and at 8-3 in league play (16-6 overall). Like I mentioned, it was based on them winning the league tourney. The Bonnie's are projected to finish 14-4 in league play. That can fluctuate wildly between now and then but if they do finish 14-4, they could make a case over GW.

The Disappointments

Richmond and Davidson were expected to contend for tournament bids but both will need to win the A10 tournament to make it. I'd put Rhode Island here, too, but the loss of E.C. Matthews was too much to overcome. The Rams have still been competitive but will once again miss the tournament.

The Bottom

The bottom 4 teams in the A-10 are LaSalle, 3 years removed from the Sweet 16 at 1-10. They're all the way down to 298 in KenPom. Somehow, their one win is over Dayton.

George Mason is 2-9 as they recover from the Paul Hewitt mess. The two teams at 3-8, UMass and St. Louis should be better. To the credit of the Dukes, Duquesne is 6-5 in league play this year. 

This is a competitive league but I don't see a Sweet 16 team here. Dayton is getting run from pundits based largely on reputation. The Flyers are 86th in offensive efficiency. That's not a second weekend profile. 

The league is 7th in RPI, so it's still a solid league and actually ahead of the American. Despite this, I'd expect a disappointing March for the league.