Mid Majors, RPI, and At-Large Bids

When it comes to At-Large Bids the highest RPI to ever receive an At-Large is right around the mid 60’s based on which RPI model you use.  Currently I have 2 teams higher than that getting bids.  UCLA at 71 and Gonzaga at 69.

Now, all RPI’s are not created equal as 50 for a top 6 conference is almost a lock for an at large while it’s almost a a guarantee NIT berth for a low to mid major.  That being said let’s look at the sub 50 mid majors right now and their chances at getting an at large bid come Selection Sunday.  For simplicity sake and to make it more uniform let’s assume all of these teams win out and then lose in their conference championship as most would fall out of the top 50 if they lose 1 or 2 more games.

UA-Little Rock, RPI 50, 17-2 .  Currently 1-1 against the top 50 but they have no more chance to pad that stat.  UT-Arlington falling off the map gives them no more top 50 chances.  30-3 would be solid

Chattanooga, RPI 46, 17-3.  Big Win over Dayton which looks better every day.  2 bad losses probably leaves them out.

St. Mary’s, RPI 42, 17-2.  Are they a Mid-Major?  Nobody thinks Gonzaga is but St. Mary’s still gets little brother treatment.  Wins over the Zags, BYU, and Stanford.  If they win out they would be locks.  They have some wiggle room for a bump in the road.

William and Mary, RPI 36, 13-6.  Flat out too many losses.  3 is probably the breaking point for a low major

Valparaiso, RPI 35, 17-4.  0-1 against the top 25 but 3-1 against 50-100.  That’s going to look good on the resume come March.  Their conference is going to hold them back as the next highest team is Oakland at 136.  I think they are a big loser if they can’t win the conference title.

Monmouth, RPI 28, 18-5.  Just a couple lines ago I said the cutoff was 3 losses but Monmouth is a curious case.  Not only did they schedule non-conference difficult but they went out and won a bunch of them.  USC, Notre Dame, UCLA, and Georgia all fell to the Mountain Hawks.  They are 6-2 against the top 100 and could have 1 more chance in their conference tournament.  The only blemish is 3 sub-200 losses.  If they make it all the way to the conference tournament without a loss the committee could reward them for scheduling such a difficult non-conference.