Baylor vs. Houston - It’s easy for us to forget what a great basketball history Houston has. This is their 6th Final 4. Remarkably, every time they’ve made an Elite 8, they’ve made the Final 4, albeit today’s Elite 8 is much different than 1968. Despite that history, they do not have a national title to their name. Phi Slamma Jamma made 3 trips in a row to the Final 4, losing the title games in 1983 & 1984. Prior to the arrival of Kelvin Sampson, Houston had been to only 4 NCAA Tournaments since losing the title game to Georgetown in 1984. Prior to winning in the opening round in 2018, their last tournament win was in the Final 4 in 1984 over Virginia, 49-47. Never change, Cavs.
Baylor basketball made two Final 4’s prior to this season. They were in 1948 and 1950. Before Scott Drew arrived, they had one NCAA appearance in total since that Final 4 in 1950. That was in 1988. They didn’t make it back to the dance until 2008. In a world of what have you done for me lately, Drew was hired in 2003. That means it took 5 years to make the tourney (We all know the mess he inherited) and has had seasons where he missed the tournament since, as recent as 2018. Baylor has made a lot of bad choices the last decade, keeping Scott Drew around is not one of them.
As for the game, Houston has done enough to win twice in games over Rutgers and Oregon State. They handled Syracuse with realtive ease as well in a matchup that favored them greatly. KenPom views this as a tossup as Baylor is 2 and Houston is 3. Baylor has a much better offense despite Houston being 7th in AdjuestedO (118.6) vs. Baylor who is 3 (123.0). Houston has the edge on defense, 8th overall (88.4) vs. Baylor, 28th overall (92.2). Basically, it’s a wash.
These are the 2nd and 3rd best offensive rebounding teams in the nation. Baylor is the nations top 3-point shooting team. Houston is 11th best in 3-pt fg% defense. Houston doesn’t turn it over much, Baylor forces a ton of turnovers. Baylor has the nations 7th best effective offensive fg%, Houston has the nations best effective defensive fg%. It’s a classic matchup of strength versus strength.
I’ll always lean towards the team with a better offense and in this case, I’ll do the same because Baylor’s 3-pt shooting is better than Houston’s and I think that’s the difference. Both teams will have extra possessions because of their offensive rebounding. Baylor should get more makes and if it’s a close game, I think that matters. Something else to watch, Baylor doesn’t typically shoot a lot of FTs but Houston fouls a lot. In a close game, it could matter.
The Pick: Baylor 70 Houston 68
UCLA vs. Gonzaga - Sigh. A Michigan-Gonzaga game could have been interesting. It’s possible this game could be, too. Gonzaga averages almost 10 more possessions per game than UCLA. UCLA does shoot it well enough from distance that if they get the Zags into a low possession slog, they may outscore them from distance.
However, USC was a much better defensive team than UCLA is and the Zags barely broke a sweat in what was one of the most, if not most impressive performance by a singular team this tournament. I said this about the Michigan-UCLA game, the Bruins are playing with house money and are 13.5 underdogs in this game. Hell, KenPom likes the Zags by 12 with an 86% win probability in a Final 4 game! The UCLA freaking Bruins are David to Gonzaga’s Goliath and it’s barely hyperbole.
UCLA has no pressure while the Zags chase perfection. I don’t dismiss that, especially in a game the Bruins will try and make ugly. Despite this warning, I think this Zags team eventually blows them out as Michigan could have and maybe should have done to UCLA. The difference between Gonzaga and Michigan is pretty staggering by the numbers.
The Pick: Gonzaga 80 UCLA 69
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