The Duke Conundrum

This hasn’t been a very good season for Duke. Should Duke fail to win the ACC Tournament, it seems likely they will miss the dance and that of course, means no Final 4. That would be a Final 4 drought dating back to 2015, matching the 2004-2010 drought.

Getting to Final 4’s isn’t easy. Coach K and Duke spoiled it’s fans from 1986-2004, making 10 Final 4’s. That’s an incredible feat. Since 2004, only the title teams of 2010 and 2015 have reached the Final 4.

Perhaps asking what’s wrong with Duke or what does the future hold is the wrong question.  They’ve been awfully good the last decade, of course. Prior to this season, the worst Duke team was 2012, when they finished 19th in KenPom. That team also was over seeded and got bounced by Lehigh.

The real conundrum is, where do they go from here? They have two 5* recruits coming in next year but we’re at the point where the question needs to be asked, so what? Who is coming back with them? Is this how to build a roster and win? Have the best one-and-done teams happened? What is the best way to build a roster?

I think that last question is the one Duke has to wrestle with. After catching lightning in a bottle in 2015, Duke has gotten close twice since then. In 2019 with Zion and 2018 with Bagley and Carter. It shows it can be done but with the doors opening to the G-League, is one-and-done a viable option moving forward? I think it’s a question Kentucky is wrestling with right now, too.

The one-and-done model is a model of potential instant gratification and that isn’t a surprise given K’s age. The administration isn’t going to question his strategy, however, maybe the assistants need to take a bigger picture look. Coach K has adapted through the decades, perhaps the pendulum is tilting back towards “getting old together”. It’s not as glamorous and not a sure thing. Transfers from a program and available transfers from other programs make roster management that much more difficult.

The other issue Duke has staring at it is, succession. There’s little doubt K’s successor is going to be from the family. The problem as we know is, there isn’t a natural choice. It seems almost certain to me, his successor is in Durham right now with him. None of his tree is good enough to come home.

And that’s the crux of what I think about where Duke is today and it’s a hard discussion to have. Duke can’t force K out nor should they but it is time to look forward. With the retirement of AD Kevin White, the new AD is going to take this job knowing that decision looms. Whoever takes that position has to know K’s plan. Duke can defer or be proactive. For their sake, they can’t defer.

It’s my contention the new AD has to be able to hire his own coach and not have one dropped in his or her lap and if that means leaving the family, so be it. There isn’t a Roy Williams to replace Dean eventually. It’s an unenviable position for whoever will take that job but for Duke’s sake, it has to be the best available candidate and if that means a coach with no Duke connections, so be it.

College programs become beholden to the past (Hi, I’m a Michigan football fan) to the point where moving forward is damn near impossible. Alabama football spent 25 years trying to replace Bear Bryant. UCLA still hasn’t replaced John Wooden. Hell, Marquette fans still pine for a guy that roamed the sidelines 45 years ago. Duke must learn from this and the alumni and fan base need to learn from this. The past was great and the future can be, too, just don’t let remember when influence the now. 

Coach K is 74 years-old and as great as he’s been, history tells us 74 year-olds don’t have many good coaching years ahead of them. The clock is ticking in Durham and Duke has to be ready for when it strikes midnight. It also has to understand a new day means new opportunities and not to be afraid of them.