Loyola Chicago vs. Oregon State - Vegas like the Ramblers by 6.5 and KenPom does by 7. Loyola is 9th in KenPom with the nations best defense and Oregon State is 49th overall.
That Rambler defense does everything well. 45th in effective defensive FG% and turnover % coupled with the 2nd best defensive rebounding % and 2nd least fouling team, they make you earn it. Add a slow tempo and you better be crisp on offense. The Beavers are 41st on AdjustedO but don’t have anything in particular they hang their hats on. 216th in effective fg% is a scary number.
OSU isn’t particularly stout on defense as well, 68th in AdjustedD. The effective fg% is ok but they don’t turn teams over, give up offensive rebounds and foul a lot. The Beavs are 238 in 2pt% defense, Loyola is 4th in 2pt% offense. The Rambler offense isn’t as good as their defense (35th in Adjusted O) but it has a lot going for it versus OSU. I think Loyola is a clear favorite for a reason.
The Pick: Loyola 69 Oregon State 58
Houston vs. Syracuse- The spread favors Houston by 7 and KenPom likes them by 8. The Cougs have looked sluggish at times over the last few weeks, though, and Syracuse is a pain in the ass. That said, Houston is 4th in KenPom and 7th in AdjustedO and 11th in AdjustedD. That’s the title contender formula.
On offense, the Cougars have an offensive rebounding % of 39.9%, 2nd best. The effective fg% is ok and they hoist a lot of 3’s (42% 3PA/FGA, 56th highest). They aren’t a great shooting team, though. If you’re looking for a reason Houston wins, well, Syracuse is awful in defensive rebounding % (zone and all), 340th overall and give up a lot of 3-pt attempts (44% 3PA/FGA). There’s a chance Houston blows them out. Syracuse is 86th overall in AdjustedD.
They’re better offensively at 17 but don’t do anything particularly well other than protect the ball. They shoot well enough from 3 that it should concern Houston. Houston does have the best defensive effective fg% in America and teams make less than 30% from 3 against them. They do foul a lot but force a lot of turnovers. The Orange haven’t gotten to the line much this year, though.
I just don’t see a scenario where Syracuse wins without a real stinker from Houston. It’s certainly possible but Houston is clearly better and this matchup should strongly favor them.
The Pick: Houston 80 Syracuse 64
No comments:
Post a Comment