KenPom Fun

A week ago, Brian and I agreed Illinois is much better than Ohio State despite the relative closeness in the top 10 of KenPom. I think the historical data backs this up. It’s my thinking, Illinois is a national title contender while Ohio State is a pretender.  The Buckeyes can certainly make a run in March. They’re legit good enough to make a Final 4 but it would be a historical anomaly to do anything beyond that (And let’s be clear, a Final 4 for them would be a great achievement).

KenPom dating back to 2002 gives us one almost certainty, whoever wins the national title will have a top 20 offense and defense. Only 1 year was that not true and that was 2014 when UConn won. The Huskies finished 15th overall in KenPom and 39th on offense and 10th on defense. 

2014 was a weird year. If we look back, we remember there wasn’t a dominant team. Louisville finished the year atop KenPom but were a 4-seed! Wichita State went undefeated in the regular season only to lose to 8-seed Kentucky. Kentucky was 19th in KenPom before the tournament started. They were much better than an 8-seed. Louisville was the only team that season with a top ten offense and defense. No one else was relatively close. The top offensive team was Duke who was abysmal on defense (86th). The top defensive team was Arizona who was 20th on offense. They made an elite 8, as could have been expected. 2014 best team was probably Florida and they made the Final 4. Why this time on 2014? It’s important to see this anomaly because I thought maybe with the Covid season this year we could see more volatility on the court but I don’t think that’s the case. I think we can trust history and the numbers.

Excluding 2020, 11 of 18 seasons, the team that finished on top of KenPom won the national title. In the 7 other seasons, the top team made the Final 4, 4 times. The exclusions were Kentucky in 2003 (regional final), UNC in 2007 (regional final) and Ohio State in 2011 (Sweet 16). Ohio State lost to Kentucky in the Sweet 16 that year. The Wildcats finished 7th in KenPom and entered the tournament 9th in KenPom. They were the 4-seed in Ohio State’s region which was a tough team to draw that early. One thing to keep an eye on this March is, Ohio State was head and shoulders ahead of the 2nd best KenPom team. They were +5 in AdjEm over Duke, the 2 team in KenPom. That’s where Gonzaga resides now over Michigan and Baylor. To put in perspective how good Gonzaga is this year, they’re +5 over that Ohio State team, too.

Other quick note to highlight include only 3 teams outside the KenPom top 3 have cut down the nets. Syracuse at 8 in 2003 is interesting because they entered the tournament 20 in KenPom. UConn’s 2011 team was 10 to finish the year in KenPom. They entered the tournament 15. Cuse finished 17th and 14th, UConn 2011 19th and 15th in offense and defense.

Since 2015, 2 teams that finished 3rd in KenPom won it all. Duke in 2015 and UNC in 2017. Duke was 6th in KenPom when the tournament started and though they finished 3rd overall, they were the best 3rd KenPom team in history. Don’t let history forget they were a better defensive team than Wisconsin that year. Baylor is currently 3 in KenPom but outside the top 20 (24) on defense. They are very similar to that Duke team.

2017 UNC won finishing 3rd overall, -4 versus Gonzaga in AdjustedEM. That Zags team was good but not nearly as good as this years team. 2017 lacked a great team across the board. That’s why a South Carolina made a Final 4.

What does it all mean? Well, the final weekend of the regular season is wrapping up and we have 4 teams that meet the criteria laid out as national title contenders. They are Gonzaga, Michigan, Illinois and Houston. Houston, like Illinois and Michigan have top 10 offense and defenses. Not included is Baylor who has dropped to 24 in overall defense. This isn’t meant to be an a-ha moment but more a pause for concern. While the Big 14 is the best league this year, I think it has gotten softer as we’ve marched towards the madness while Baylor’s top opponents all seem to be trending up. It’s a minor quibble with no basis other than passing observation. Baylor can cut the nets down.

The top has separated themselves this year and those are clearly the best teams. Iowa is 4th in KenPom but are 60th in defense. Unless I see that in the 20-30 range, I’m dismissing them. The 7th best team, Ohio State is closer to the 20th team at the moment than the 6th. Chaos in a chaos year? It’ll buck a lot of history if that’s the case.