Re-Seeding: MIDWEST

1. Illinois (3)

2. Houston (6)

3. Loyola (9)

4. San Diego State (20)

5. Tennessee (21)

6. West Virginia (27)

7. Oklahoma State (30)

8. Georgia Tech (32)

9. Rutgers (34)

10. Syracuse (41)

11. Clemson (42)

This region is a mess. The top 2 seeds are the clear favorites and are 2 teams that profile as potential national champions. Loyola got the 8-seed and are 9th in KenPom. They are woefully under seeded in this regard but as we know, while the committee claims they use analytics, I think that’s only partly true. Loyola is where they probably should be. The difference between them and Illinois is roughly 7 in AdjEM. It’s roughly the same between them and Syracuse the other way. Instead of potentially getting Syracuse in either the first or second round, though, they get Georgia Tech and them potentially Illinois. That’s tough for the 9th best KenPom team but such is the life of a true mid-major.

As we noted in the East, West Virginia is too high as a 3-seed. It sickens me to say, but there’s a path to the Sweet 16 for Syracuse who loves to prove the committee right. That said, it does also open up a legit chance for San Diego State to do the same as a 6.

Oklahoma State got a lot of love as a team that should have gotten a better seed and they did just beat Baylor but they are over seeded at 4. They should handle Liberty but would be underdogs to Tennessee and everyone else on that side of the bracket save Georgia Tech and Oregon State. They have a very good team and the best player in Cade Cunningham and that could be the difference but I’d take a great pause anointing them as a sleeper in this region.

It’ll be an upset in my mind if we don’t get Houston and Illinois in the regional final. Seeing a 6-seed get to the Sweet 16 seems like the likely “upset” in this region. Rutgers would be favored over Clemson but 10-7 isn’t a big upset.

Morehead State will probably get some upset picks but they got blown out by Ohio State, Richmond, Kentucky and Clemson during the regular season. This region feels pretty chalky.