Gonzaga versus Baylor was the ultimate destination this season was on. Rarely do we get 1 versus 2 in this sport at the end of the season. While Baylor went through the motions post-Covid break, they’ve locked back in and thoroughly humiliated a very good Houston team. They’d still be a statistical outlier should they win Monday night but wouldn’t be a surprise to win.
We should stop and appreciate what a brilliant game we saw last night between Gonzaga and UCLA. UCLA came out and kept throwing uppercuts at Gonzaga who took blow after blow and found a way to win. We’ll know after Monday’s game if it’s an all-time classic (They have to win the whole thing for it to match the pantheon of Duke-UK). That’s a game that deserved a full arena.
As for the game, KenPom has Gonzaga by 4, with a 65% win probability. I think it’s closer than that just because Baylor won’t flinch and are every bit as good as UCLA. The one thing I’ll come back to is, even as well as Baylor has played in this tournament, there have been moments where they get disinterested. It’s not sloppy, it’s a stretch where the defense is exposed. If they have that 10 minute stretch against Gonzaga, they’ll be hard pressed to pull the upset.
The Pick: Gonzaga 84 Baylor 79
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