Michigan vs. Florida State - The Wolverines are still favored by 3 according to Vegas andKenPom likes them by 4. They handled an aggressive LSU team but the Noles are a much better defensive team.
FSU is 29th in defense while LSU was around 110. The Noles are 21st in effective fg% defense but don’t force many turnovers and foul a lot. They also give up a lot of 2nd chance points. They’re 296th on defensive rebounding. Michigan doesn’t crash the offensive glass typically, however, they’re a dangerous team to give second looks to. They make 38.5% from 3, 11th in the nation. FSU is 272nd in 3PA/FGA. That is a morsel worth noting.
FSU is no slouch making 3’s themselves. They’re making 38%, close to what Michigan makes and they have an offensive rebounding % of 34.8%, 18th in the nation. Their weakness on defense matches their strength on offense. Michigan is a much better defensive rebounding team than FSU and are 30th in the nation in 3PA/FGA.
Without Livers, FSU is a trendy pick in this region and game. The numbers really show me this isn’t a bad matchup for Michigan, though. I’m much more bullish on them than I would have been without looking at the numbers
The Pick: Michigan 77 Florida State 75
Alabama vs. UCLA - This is a contrast in styles. Bama is the 12th fastest team in the nation. UCLA is 337th. Almost 47% of Alabama’s shots are 3’s versus UCLA whose shots are 31% 3’s, 301st in the country. Vegas has the Tide favored by 6.5 and KenPom likes them by 4.
UCLA may play slow but it’s an efficient offense. 79th in effective fg%, 80th in offensive rebounding %, 28th in 3-point shooting % and protect the ball. Bama is 17th in effective fg% defense and teams only shoot 29% from 3 against them. That’s 9th best in the nation. They are a bad defensive rebounding team, though. They’re 218th in defensive rebounding %. They can force turnovers. What gives here? Can UCLA make baskets, can Bama prevent second chances?
On defense, the Bruins are far worse. They protect the glass but don’t force turnovers. They’re just below average in defensive effective fg%. Bama isn’t a great offense but are capable of blowing teams out. They crash the boards and as we’ve noted, for a team that shoots a lot of 3’s, second chances are something UCLA can’t allow.
There’s a path here for the Bruins. If they can get Bama to slog it out with them and limit possessions and second chances, you could see UCLA frustrate the Tide. I think Bama’s defense, though, can handle a low possesssion game if it comes to that and make it a slog for UCLA as well. This is a fascinating game.
The Pick: Alabama 62 UCLA 58
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