Villanova vs. Baylor - What could have been...Baylor is favored by 7.5 in Vegas while KenPom is less bullish, having them over by 4.
The Wildcats are with out Colin Gillespie as we know. For the season, no one turned the ball over less than Villanova. Only 2 teams in the nation forced more turnovers than Baylor. The Gilllespie injury catches up to the Wildcats Saturday. To their credit, none of the Nova regulars turn the ball over but Chris Arcidiacano does and if he plays a lot Saturday, that could be a problem.
While we marvel at Villanova from distance, Baylor actually lead the nation in 3pt %. Nova was 237th in 3pt % defense. Couple that with a bad defensive effective fg% and this is simply a bad matchup for Villanova across the board.
We’ve seen Villanova shoot teams out of gyms but I think this will go the other way this weekend. Baylor isn’t great defensively but they’re much better than Villanova and the Bears offense is slightly better than Villanova and that’s impressive unto itself.
The Pick: Baylor 82 Villanova 72
Oral Roberts vs. Arkansas - KenPom gives Arkansas an 89% chance of winning this game with a predicted score of 86-72. They actually played earlier this year with Arkansas only winning by 11.
The Razorbacks have won 11 of 12 heading into this game and are a clear step above and defense Oral Bob has played. Arkansas isn’t anything special on offense but also don’t have any glaring warts you thing Oral Bob might exploit. Both teams play fast, averaging around 72 possessions per game, so there isn’t an advantage there.
The key will be can Oral Roberts make 3’s? They’re 14th in 3pt % and 18th in attempts per FGA. They’ll put shots up and that gives them a punchers chance. While the Razorbacks are 10th in AdjustedD, they’re average in 3pt defense. I can see the Golden Eagles putting a scare into Arkansas but the Razorbacks should win.
The Pick: Arkansas 84 Oral Roberts 70
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