2. Marquette vs. 11. NC State
Supposedly, they played for a title in 1974. Al McGuire got ejected before half. Imagine that today.
NC State rides a 7-game winning streak into this matchup and are an interesting team. Not great in anything other than not turning it over and not bad in anything. They’re an average team who has gotten hot or lucky, depending on how you look at it, at the right time.
Marquette is a poor rebounding team but NC State is average on the glass. Marquette thrives on turnovers but NC State doesn’t turn it over. Can Marquette increase NC State turnovers?
The difference for me is Marquette’s 55.5% effective offensive FG%. That’s an elite number and even if not turning NC State over, the offense should generate plenty of good looks. Plus, they’ll have the best player on the floor.
The Pick: Marquette 75 NC State 69
1. Houston vs. 4. Duke
Easily the best matchup of the 8 games, we have the KenPom number 2, Houston, against the KenPom number 6, Duke.
Houston likes to grind you down and play slow, but Duke isn’t exactly the showtime Lakers. They’re 245th in pace. Houston is an elite offensive rebounding team. Duke is a solid defensive rebounding team. If they can limit Houston’s second chance opportunities, that’ll be a great sign for Duke.
Duke shoots 38% from 3, 13th best in the nation. Opponents shoot 30% from 3 against Houston, 10th best in the nation. Duke has the 18th best effective offensive fg%, Houston is 2nd on the defensive side. Duke is 23rd in offensive turnover %, Houston is 3rd in defensive turnover %.
The game will come down to whether Duke is making shots and/or limiting second chance opportunities for Houston. If they turn it over and lose on the glass, winning will be hard. Tough game to predict.
The Pick: Duke 60 Houston 59
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