American: Woof, playing this in Ft. Worth. Stop at Colonial and play 18. South Florida, yes, South Florida won the regular season title but Brian has them as a 12-seed which means this group is on the bubble.
FAU finished 2nd and is the highest rated KenPom team (37th). The only other bid would be a thief. SMU (63), Memphis (71) & North Texas (74) are the other top-100 KenPom teams.
I like a bid thief here. Let’s say SMU, even though they’ve lost 4 of 5.
Big West: Henderson, Nevada is the home for this tournament. UC-Irvine won the regular season and is 73rd in KenPom. The only other team with a positive AdjEM is UC-San Diego who are 123 in KenPom.
Irvine is the pick and good enough to steal a win next week.
MEAC: 16-seed play-in tournament. It’s in Norfolk and Norfolk State is the 1-seed. North Carolina Central is pretty close by the metrics and the pick. Everyone else has a losing record entering this tournament.
Mountain West: Yes, this is the best conference tournament this year. Playing in Las Vegas, the MWC should be a good watch.
Brian has 5 teams in. New Mexico is on the bubble. UNLV is good enough to steal a bid. New Mexico is 4-6 in their last 10, so it seems unlikely they’ll steal a bid here.
I’ll take Nevada here but expect this to be wide open.
SWAC: Who is ready for some SWAC-tion from beautiful Birmingham? Not the one in England. Grambling State won the league title. Southern is the best KenPom team at 257 and the pick. 16-seed play-in.
WAC: Who is ready for some WAC-tion from Las Vegas? The league was ok this year. Grand Canyon won it and are the clear favorite. They’re 55th in KenPom and +10 points better in AdjEM than any other team in the league.
UT-Arlington is 127 in KenPom, Seattle is 130 and Tarleton State is 135. These are the most likely to knock off Gramd Canyon who is the pick
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