2. UNC (9)
3. Alabama (13)
4. Baylor (14)
5. Michigan State (18)
6. St. Mary’s (20)
7. New Mexico (23)
8. Mississippi State (30)
9. Dayton (32)
10. Clemson (34)
11. Nevada (36)
12. Grand Canyon (53)
Notes:
- The top is somewhat weak here. Bama and Baylor are great offensive teams but aren’t much on defense. That said, Bama has a favorable draw.
- Leaning towards New Mexico into the Sweet 16 as a bid thief. Really like them against Clemson and I’m just not sold on Baylor. Baylor has NBA players but something hasn’t felt right about them all year. Big wild card in this region.
- Grand Canyon will get a lot of love over St. Mary’s and rightfully so. They’re 10th in the nation in defensive effective fg% because they have 5 guys that can block shots. Interestingly, both teams are very good offensive rebounding teams, so can one win that box? St. Mary’s plays slow and is eh on offense.
- Michigan State is loved by the computers and is reminiscent of ‘21 Wisconsin who was an 9-seed and had similar computer numbers. That Badger team was 18-13, this Spartan team is 19-14. Trust the eye test. They ain’t making the Sweet 16.
- Seeding is wonky between 6-11 versus KenPom. This region has the opportunity for some volatility and possibly producing a surprise Final 4 participant but I’ll take Arizona who is plus-plus in all of the 4 factors. I ain’t confident in it but I have to pick someone.
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