Elite 8 Sunday

Midwest Region: 1. Purdue vs. 2. Tennessee

Brian and I were exchanging texts on Friday night where I said I think we’re simply steamrolling to a Purdue-UConn final. Tennessee’s 18-0 run against Creighton gave me pause and then they almost blew it.

The Pick: Purdue 74 Tennessee 69

South Region: 4. Duke vs. 11. NC State

We’ve now arrived at the stage where NC State is no longer cute but annoying. I get it, the world hates Duke, but do we want Purdue-NC State? I think not.

The Pick: Duke 78 NC State 73

Elite 8 Saturday

East: 1. UConn vs. 3. Illinois

UConn played their C game for a half against SDSU and then won by 30. Illinois jumped Iowa State and held on, but never really felt threatened, answering each Iowa State bucket that made it a one possession game. Impressive stuff in its own right.

Ultimately, I simply think UConn is better. Illinois can certainly shoot themselves to an upset but I have my doubts they get enough stops to fend off UConn like they did the Clones.

The Pick: UConn 82 Illinois 77

West: 4. Alabama vs. 6. Clemson

Of all the permeations you could get from the top-8 teams of this region, this one somehow feels the least likely. Neither marched in triumphantly to March.

Both got some help in the Sweet 16. UNC went ice cold in the second half from deep and they had looks. Arizona had plenty of good looks, too. Clemson didn’t do anything special to them. If I’m a UNC or Arizona fan today, I’m still confused how we lost.

Between the 2, Clemson’s win felt flukier. Banked 3’s, bail out hook shots and other makes at the shot clock. They also gave up a lot of early offensive rebounds against Zona. Zona missed a lot of second and third chances. Not sure Clemson can do that against Bama who also cleans the offensive glass. Also, I’m still bitter about the Tigers not beating the Gooophers in ‘97.

The Pick: Alabama 91 Clemson 78

Sweet 16 Midwest Preview

1. Purdue vs. 5. Gonzaga 

Another Sweet 16 for the Zags. Say what you will about them, but that is impressive in this day and age to continually be in the Sweet 16. Great teams get upset on opening weekend all the time. Great programs have down years all the time. Should probably appreciate the Zags.

As for the game, I want to find a reason to pick the Zags. Purdue can be dicey with the ball but Gonzaga typically doesn’t turn opponents over. The Zags don’t put teams on the line but Purdue is a different creature from anything any team has seen in that regard.

To win this game, the Zags need to be bucket getters. I’d also let Edey get his and pressure the Purdue guards. You’re probably not stopping Edey but if you can make the guys around him minuses, you have a chance. I don’t think the Zags are that team.

The Pick: Purdue 81 Gonzaga 79

2. Tennessee vs. 3. Creighton

The BlueJays return to the Sweet 16 and bring with them another top-25 defense predicated on not fouling and forcing bad shots. Worst team when it comes to forcing turnovers in the nation. Why do I think this matters? Tennessee’s offense is good, but not great, capable of clunkers.

Tennessee’s defense is 3rd in KenPom based largely on the nations 3rd best defensive effective fg%. They will foul a bit and good, not great at the other 2 4 Factors. Creighton rarely gets to the line, though, and is a weak offensive rebounding team, so that’s a wash.

Creighton’s offense is 11th in KenPom with the 3rd best offensive effective fg%. Another clash in numbers in the night games. This could be a classic.

The Pick: Creighton 66 Tennessee 65

Sweet 16 South Preview

2. Marquette vs. 11. NC State

Supposedly, they played for a title in 1974. Al McGuire got ejected before half. Imagine that today. 

NC State rides a 7-game winning streak into this matchup and are an interesting team. Not great in anything other than not turning it over and not bad in anything. They’re an average team who has gotten hot or lucky, depending on how you look at it, at the right time.

Marquette is a poor rebounding team but NC State is average on the glass. Marquette thrives on turnovers but NC State doesn’t turn it over. Can Marquette increase NC State turnovers? 

The difference for me is Marquette’s 55.5% effective offensive FG%. That’s an elite number and even if not turning NC State over, the offense should generate plenty of good looks. Plus, they’ll have the best player on the floor.

The Pick: Marquette 75 NC State 69

1. Houston vs. 4. Duke

Easily the best matchup of the 8 games, we have the KenPom number 2, Houston, against the KenPom number 6, Duke.

Houston likes to grind you down and play slow, but Duke isn’t exactly the showtime Lakers. They’re 245th in pace. Houston is an elite offensive rebounding team. Duke is a solid defensive rebounding team. If they can limit Houston’s second chance opportunities, that’ll be a great sign for Duke.

Duke shoots 38% from 3, 13th best in the nation. Opponents shoot 30% from 3 against Houston, 10th best in the nation. Duke has the 18th best effective offensive fg%, Houston is 2nd on the defensive side. Duke is 23rd in offensive turnover %, Houston is 3rd in defensive turnover %. 

The game will come down to whether Duke is making shots and/or limiting second chance opportunities for Houston. If they turn it over and lose on the glass, winning will be hard. Tough game to predict.

The Pick: Duke 60 Houston 59

Sweet 16 East Preview

1. UConn vs. 5. San Diego State

UConn has won 8 straight tournament games by double digits. San Diego State doesn’t have enough offensive firepower to beat them. UConn’s spurtability will let them pull away and win comfortably.

The Pick: UConn 70 San Diego State 60

2. Iowa State vs. 3. Illinois

Contrasting teams meetup in this fascinating game. Iowa State is 49th and 1st in effective offensive and defensive efficiency. The Illini are 1st and 92nd in those categories.

Looking at the 4 Factors, Illinois is actually solid across the board defensively except turning teams over. They’re 360th of 362 teams in turning the opponent over (Interestingly, Creighton is the worst). Iowa State typically doesn’t turn it over. There isn’t anything they do bad on offense, they’re just not excellent in any category. I think these two seemingly weaknesses of both teams might not matter.

The Pick: Illinois 71 Iowa State 69

Sweet 16 West Preview

2. Arizona vs. 6. Clemson:

In what is a bit of a surprise matchup, Clemson meets Arizona in the early tip Thursday. The Wildcats like to play fast, Clemson likes to slow it down. A matchup of clashing styles.

If we look at Arizona’s 4 Factors, we don’t find anything they do bad. Clemson on the other hand is a bad offensive rebounding team and one of the worst at turning teams over. Zona is 7th in the nation in defensive rebounding %.

I’d like to find a reason to pick Clemson in an upset but I think this is a game Zona handles with relative ease.

The Pick: Arizona 82 Clemson 69

4. Alabama vs. 1. UNC

This being a Sweet 16 game at the start of the year wouldn’t have been a huge surprise. What the teams play like might be.

As we know, Bama is a bad defensive team. They are the best offense in the nation, however. That is mitigated by the Heels 6th rated defense. The one thing that Carolina doesn’t do is, turn teams over and that’s a minor blemish on Bama’s offensive scorecard. 

Bama is 26th in offensive rebounding %. Carolina is 6th in defensive rebounding %. The chaos of Bama’s offense can be negated a bit by good defensive rebounding by the Heels.

Pace will electric in this game. Carolina won’t be fazed by Bama’s up-and-down style. If it’s a game that becomes a matchup of making shots, Bama is 10th in offensive effective fg% and UNC is 119th. They counter with the nation’s 15th best effective defenisve fg%. As they say, something has to give. 

The Pick: UNC 101 Alabama 96

Sweet 16 Breakdown

Let’s rank out the Sweet 16 by KenPom. It’s a remarkably chalky Sweet 16. In theory, we should get better games, but we shall see.

1. UConn, 1st KP (1-seed East)

2. Houston, 2nd KP (1-seed South)

3. Purdue, 3rd KP (1-seed MW)

4. Arizona, 5th KP (2-seed West)

5. Duke, 6th KP (4-seed South)

6. Iowa State, 7th KP (2-seed East)

7. Tennessee, 8th KP (2-seed MW)

8. UNC, 9th KP (1-seed West)

9. Illinois, 10th KP (3-seed East)

10. Creighton, 11th KP (3-seed MW)

11. Gonzaga, 12th KP (5-seed MW)

12. Marquette, 13th KP (2-seed South)

13. Alabama, 14th KP (4-seed West)

14. San Diego State, 17th KP (5-seed East)

15. Clemson, 23rd KP (6-seed West)

16. NC State, 53rd KP (11-seed South)

Notes:

East is the best region in the bracket. 3 top-10 and SDSU is 17. SDSU is the “underdog” in this group and is 17 in KenPom. Legit Sweet 16 team. Though it is the best region, I have a hard time envisioning any of these teams beating UConn.

Midwest is the next toughest bracket left.  3-top 10 and the Zags at 12 in KenPom. Purdue coasted in rounds 1 and 2. In this regional, they will earn a bid should they make it through. Bet all these games are close.

West and South are weaker with it being a coin flip which is weakest but I’ll say NC State makes the South the weakest. In the west, your top 2-seeds should be solid favorites. Seems like a showdown is brewing between UNC and Zona.

The South pits its 2-best remaining teams against one another in Duke and Houston. Duke rolled to the Sweet 16, Houston survived. Heckuva matchup on Friday. Other than  history long, long ago, NC State and Marquette is the weakest matchup. NC State has won 7 straight and have a history of doing stuff that surprises everyone. Either would be an underdog on Sunday.

Re-Seed Midwest

1. Purdue (3)

2. Tennessee (7)

3. Creighton (11)

4. Gonzaga (15)

5. Kansas (22)

6. Texas (27)

7. TCU (33)

8. Colorado State (38)

9. Utah State (48)

10. South Carolina 49

11. Oregon (55)

12. McNeese State (60)

13. Virginia (69)

Notes

- Potential chaos region. 4&5 are on high alert. Zags are a year away. If they can keep the roster together, they’ll be in the mix to enter 2024-25 as the number 1 team. Kansas was a bit of a mess roster-wise before the injuries. 4-5 losing benefits Purdue who should beat either the 8 or 9.

- Virginia is a disgrace which means a sweet-16 probably. I’d have to look but they’re one of the worst at-large bid teams from a KenPom perspective in history. Tempted to ride Colorado State into the Sweet 16 and Niko Medved taking the Michigan gig. Tennessee has entered prove it territory for me. Big time trust issues, Vols.

- If the Sweet 16 is 1, 3, 10, 12, wouldn’t be surprised. I promised myself I’d pick Purdue after Maui but let’s do what I’ve historically done and break all promises to myself and pick Creighton. Better defense than you think and a top-15 offense. Plus, a body to throw at Edey.

Re-Seed South

1. Houston (2)

2. Duke (8)

3. Marquette (12)

4. Wisconsin (17)

5. Kentucky (19)

6. Texas Tech (24)

7. Colorado (26)

8. Nebraska (28)

9. Florida (29)

10. Boise State (39)

11. Texas A&M (44)

12. NC State (58)

13. JMU (59)

Notes:

- Probably the most balanced region? 9 top 30 teams probably makes up for the sort of weak top 4. Bid thief appears here and just reiterates what a disaster tourney week was for the actually heath of this bracket.

- Colorado in the play-in game is a borderline crime but they did hire Prime Time and they have to pay for that across all sports. At Marquette’s expense, I can see them playing into the Sweet 16.

- The love affair Kentucky is getting is odd. The offense is blistering but the defense is 108th in the nation. That kind of team gets punted early. It won’t be Oakland but Texas Tech can make some 3’s.

- Wisconsin got no favors with JMU and/or Duke. I suspect the Badgers will be up for JMU but Duke’s the kind of team that can match buckets with them and plays better defense than they get credit for.  I’ve seen some Vermont upset chatter but this isn’t a vintage Catamount team.

- I’m going to pick Houston because I think everyone is passing on them after the Iowa State game. They should be healthier. The offense is a legit concern and if they met Marquette in the regional final, I could see a 54-53 type rock fight.

Re-Seed West

1. Arizona (6)

2. UNC (9)

3. Alabama (13)

4. Baylor (14)

5. Michigan State (18)

6. St. Mary’s (20)

7. New Mexico (23)

8. Mississippi State (30)

9. Dayton (32)

10. Clemson (34)

11. Nevada (36)

12. Grand Canyon (53)

Notes:

- The top is somewhat weak here. Bama and Baylor are great offensive teams but aren’t much on defense. That said, Bama has a favorable draw.

- Leaning towards New Mexico into the Sweet 16 as a bid thief. Really like them against Clemson and I’m just not sold on Baylor. Baylor has NBA players but something hasn’t felt right about them all year. Big wild card in this region.

- Grand Canyon will get a lot of love over St. Mary’s and rightfully so. They’re 10th in the nation in defensive effective fg% because they have 5 guys that can block shots. Interestingly, both teams are very good offensive rebounding teams, so can one win that box? St. Mary’s plays slow and is eh on offense. 

- Michigan State is loved by the computers and is reminiscent of ‘21 Wisconsin who was an 9-seed and had similar computer numbers. That Badger team was 18-13, this Spartan team is 19-14. Trust the eye test. They ain’t making the Sweet 16.

- Seeding is wonky between 6-11 versus KenPom. This region has the opportunity for some volatility and possibly producing a surprise Final 4 participant but I’ll take Arizona who is plus-plus in all of the 4 factors. I ain’t confident in it but I have to pick someone.

Re-Seed East

1. UConn (1)

2. Auburn (4)

3. Iowa State (5)

4. Illinois (10)

5. BYU (16)

6. SDSU (21)

7. FAU (41)

8. Washington State (42)

9. Northwestern (46)

10. Drake (51)

11. Duquesne (86)

12. UAB (106)

Notes:

- We have two bid thieves here. The Dukes and the Blazers. Their KenPom rankings show what a wrench they threw into the bracketing. Having watched UAB play, though, I do wonder if their super athleticism gives SDSU a lot of grief in the opener. 

- It is the toughest top 4-seeds of any region but I still think UConn breezes through this region. Not convinced Iowa State can match them bucket for bucket and Auburn’s resume is razor-thin.  UConn has that spurtability that ISU lacks and can blow the door off Auburn.

- No quibbles with the seeding here. BYU is a 6 because they don’t play on Sundays.

- Of the 14-3 matchups, if I had the money to waste, I’d take a flyer on Morehead State. Illinois doesn’t play a lick of defense. Only concern here is, Morehead State plays slow. If Illinois is making buckets, game over.

The pick is UConn

Final Bracket for 2024

 

1 seed vs 16 seed Uconn(Beast) vs Montana St (Bsky)/Wagner (NEC) Purdue vs Stetson(Asun)/Grambling(SWAC) Houston vs Howard(MEAC) N.Carolina vs St.Peter's(MAAC) 2 seed vs 15 seed Tennessee vs Longwood(Bsouth) Arizona vs W.Kentucky(Cusa) Marquette vs S.Dakota St(Summit) Iowa State(B12) vs Long Beach St(Bwest) 3 seed vs 14 seed Creighton vs Colgate(Pat) Baylor vs Oakland(Horizon) Illinois(B1G) vs Morehead(OVC) Kentucky vs Akron (MAC) 4 seed vs 13 seed Auburn(SEC) vs Charleston(CAA) Duke vs Vermont(Aeast) Kansas vs UAB(AAC) Alabama vs Yale(Ivy) 5 seed vs 12 seed BYU vs Duquesne(A10) South Carolina vs McNeese St(Sland) Wisconsin vs Samford(SoCon) Utah State vs Grand Canyon(WAC) 6 seed vs 11 seed St. Mary's(WCC) vs NC State(ACC) Florida vs Oregon(P12) Texas Tech vs Drake(Mvalley) San Diego St vs James Madison(Sbelt) 7 seed vs 10 seed Washington St vs Oklahoma/St John's Nevada vs TCU/Colorado Gonzaga vs FAU Boise State vs Michigan St 8 seed vs 9 seed Clemson vs Dayton Nebraska vs Colorado St Northwestern vs Mississippi State Texas vs New Mexico(MW)

First Four Out Pittsburgh Texas A&M Indiana St Virginia Next Four Out Seton Hall Providence Villanova Iowa

Bracket As Of This Morning

 

1 seed vs 16 seed

Uconn(Beast) vs Montana St (Bsky)/Wagner (NEC)

Purdue vs Grambling(SWAC)/Longwood(Bsouth)

Houston vs Stetson(Asun)

N.Carolina vs Howard(MEAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Tennessee vs St.Peter's(MAAC)

Arizona vs W.Kentucky(Cusa)

Marquette vs S.Dakota St(Summit)

Iowa State(B12) vs Long Beach ST(Bwest)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Creighton vs Colgate(Pat)

Baylor vs Oakland(Horizon)

Illinois(B1G) vs Morehead(OVC)

Kentucky vs Akron (MAC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Auburn(SEC) vs Charleston(CAA)

Duke vs Vermont(Aeast)

Kansas vs UAB(AAC)

Alabama vs Yale(Ivy)

5 seed vs 12 seed

BYU vs McNeese St(Sland)

South Carolina vs VCU (A10)

Wisconsin vs Samford(SoCon)

St. Mary's(WCC) vs Grand Canyon(WAC)

6 seed vs 11 seed

Florida vs NC State(ACC)

Nevada vs Oregon(P12)

Texas Tech vs Drake(Mvalley)

Washington St vs James Madison(Sbelt)

7 seed vs 10 seed

Utah State vs Oklahoma/St John's

San Diego St vs TCU/Colorado

Gonzaga vs Michigan St

Boise State vs Dayton

8 seed vs 9 seed

Clemson vs Colorado St

Nebraska vs FAU

Northwestern vs Mississippi State

Texas vs New Mexico(MW)

First Four Out

Pittsburgh

Texas A&M

Indiana St

Virginia

Next Four Out

Seton Hall

Providence

Villanova

Iowa

Also Considered

Ohio State

Wake Forest

Kansas St

Today's Bids

 

America East: #1 Vermont vs #2 Mass-Lowell

Pick - Vermont

MEAC: #4 Howard vs #6 Delaware State

Pick – Delaware State

SWAC: #1 Grambling vs #3 Texas Southern

Pick – Texas Southern

Big 12: #1 Houston vs #2 Iowa State

Pick – Iowa State

Mountain West: #6 San Diego State vs #6 New Mexico

Pick – San Diego State

Big East: #1 Uconn vs #3 Marquette

Pick -Uconn

MAC: #2 Akron vs #8 Kent State

Pick - Akron

MAAC: #2 Fairfield vs #5 St.Peter’s

Pick - Fairfield

ACC: #1 North Carolina vs #10 North Carolina State

Pick – North Carolina

C-USA: #3 Western Kentucky vs #5 UTEP

Pick - UTEP

Pac 12: #3 Colorado vs #4 Oregon

Pick - Colorado

Big West: #2 UC-Davis vs #4 Long Beach State

Pick – Long Beach State

WAC: #1 Grand Canyon vs #3 UT-Arlington

Pick – Grand Canyon

Friday Bracketology

 

1 seed vs 16 seed
Uconn(Beast) vs Montana St (Bsky)/Wagner (NEC)
Purdue(B1G) vs Grambling(SWAC)/Longwood(Bsouth)
Houston(B12) vs Stetson(Asun)
Tennessee(SEC) vs Norfolk(MEAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
N.Carolina(ACC) vs Quinnipiac(MAAC)
Arizona(P12) vs Sam Houston(CUSA)
Marquette vs S.Dakota St(Summit)
Baylor vs Colgate(Pat)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Creighton vs Oakland(Horizon)
Iowa State vs Morehead(OVC)
Illinois vs Akron (MAC)
Kentucky vs Charleston(CAA)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Duke vs Vermont(Aeast)
Kansas vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
Alabama vs McNeese St(Sland)
Auburn vs VCU (A10)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Utah State (MW) vs Samford(SoCon)
San Diego St vs South Florida(AAC)
Clemson vs Princeton(Ivy)
BYU vs Grand Canyon(WAC)
6 seed vs 11 seed
South Carolina vs Seton Hall/New Mexico
Nevada vs Mississippi State/TCU
Florida vs Drake(Mvalley)
Washington St vs James Madison(Sbelt)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Wisconsin vs Virginia
St. Mary's(WCC) vs Colorado
Texas Tech vs Northwestern
Boise State vs Oklahoma
8 seed vs 9 seed
Gonzaga vs St John's
FAU vs Michigan St
Colorado St vs Nebraska
Dayton vs Texas
First Four Out
Pittsburgh
Providence
Indiana St
Ohio State
Next Four Out
Texas A&M
Villanova
Iowa
Utah
Also Considered
Wake Forest
Kansas St
Cincinnati