Final Four Picks

Final Four:

Duke

Purdue

St. Mary's

Baylor

Championship Game:

Duke over Purdue

2023-2024 College Basketball Preseason Top 25

 

2023-2024 College Basketball Preseason Top 25

1.  Kansas
2.  Purdue
3.  Duke
4.  Michigan State
5.  Marquette
6.  Creighton
7.  Uconn
8.  Gonzaga
9.  Arizona
10.  Houston
11.  Baylor
12.  Tennessee
13.  FAU
14.  Texas A&M
15.  Villanova
16.  Texas
17.  Saint Mary's
18.  Miami
19.  North Carolina
20.  Alabama
21.  UCLA
22.  Illinois
23.  San Diego State
24.  Arkansas
25.  Wisconsin

2023-2024 Season

 Just a heads up that the season preview will be coming up in the next week or so.  The top 5-6 teams look stacked but can the best teams advance to the Final Four?  Sneak Peak....it won't be Kansas.

Blue Bloods

What’s a blue blood in college basketball? You can debate that however you like, but since Duke won its first title in 1991, we’ve had 32 tournaments. Here’s who has won the most in that stretch:

T1: Duke 5 (91, 92, 01, 10, 15); UConn 5 (99, 04, 11, 14, 23)

3. UNC 4 (93, 05, 09, 17)

4. Kentucky 3 (96, 98, 12)

Over half the tournaments have been won by these 3 schools. Blue bloods with a special shout-out to Kansas who hs titles in 08 & 22, runner-ups in 91, 03 & 12 and 8 Final Four appearances in that stretch. 

Those are your modern day blue bloods. 

Elite Eight Sunday

After a solid 2-6 Sweet 16, to hell with KenPom:

South: 5. San Diego State vs 6. Creighton 

All year, Creighton hovered in the magic KenPom zone as a profile of a national champ. Well, to hell with KenPom

San Diego State 66 Creighton 65

Midwest: 2. Texas vs. 5. Miami 

As I was fake golfing last night, I overheard badger fans in the bay next to me talking about how they could have won it all. Idiots.

Texas 78 Miami 72

Elite Eight: Saturday

East: 3. Kansas State vs. 8. Florida Atlantic

When I was younger, I had this formula where I’d pick Final 4 participants based on history of what seed historically came out of regions. The East used to produce the most 1-seeds. Well, suck on that stupid, young Eric.

Kansas State had 5 turnovers against Michigan State. They’re 263rd in the nation in offensive turnover %. For all the talk of Izzo is March, I’d have figured out a way to force a team that turns it over a lot, to you know, turn it over.

Florida Atlantic took advantage of a Rick Barnes team. Whatever the reason is, Barnes coached teams loose in March because the offense breaks bad. I’ll say this, though, FAU is top-30 KenPom defense and offense. I think the committee owes it to teams like FAU more respect. I don’t care what team you are. 28-3 regular season record in a top-10 league deserves way more respect.

Amazing this is the regional final at MSG. Tickets are probably pretty easy to get.  If I was there, I’d buy them because this could be a great game. KenPom likes FAU by 1. Guess it’s FAU 69 Kansas State 68

West: 3. Gonzaga vs. 4. UConn

UConn has come out of the West 3 of the 4 times they’ve won national championships. In 1999, they shattered Cinderella’s shoe. What does that mean? Nothing.

UConn’s demolition of Arkansas was as impressive as anything we’ve seen this tournament. They looked a lot like the Huskies of early season. It’s also a reminder to probably not overreact to a bad stretch of a season. If a team has a great, sustained stretch, barring injury, that’s what that team is capable of.

As for the Zags, I’d rather focus on Mick Cronin. At one point in the first half last night, Dan Bonner noticed Cronin telling his team to slow down as they were running all over the hapless Zag defense. That was the point I knew Gonzaga could win should they keep UCLA within distance in the first half. UCLA needed to bury Gonzaga like UConn buried Arkansas. Instead, Cronin was so concerned with playing within his system, he almost certainly lost the opportunity. His near future at UCLA with the guys he’s losing becomes interesting.

The Zags defense last night gets buried by UConn. Saturday is a new day, however. They also dropped 33 in the first half against a good UCLA defense which would be pretty damn good had they not given up 46. The 46 they scored in the 2nd half is even more impressive. The nation’s number 1 offense needs to do that again. It should be a thriller. I like UConn 80 Gonzaga 78

Sweet 16: The Midwest

Thank you, Midwest region.

1. Houston vs. 5. Miami

Kelvin Sampson has done impressive work at Houston. Same with Jim Larranaga at Miami. Houston is a heavy 8-point Ken Pom favorite. Having the 8th best offense and 4th best defense will do that. Doesn’t hurt that Miami’s 108th ranked defense is a problem for the Hurricanes.

Miami’s offense on the other hand, is the 11th best KenPom offense. They’re not a fast-paced team, so Houston’s methodical style won’t bother them greatly. Miami has the nation’s 23rd best effective fg%. They shoot the ball well from 2 and 3, 35th and 39th respectively in the nation. However, Houston has the nation’s 2nd best defensive effective fg%.

Houston’s offense is efficient, but hardly dynamic. 71st I’m effective fg% is fine, 165th in 3pt% is ok. What sets them apart is their offensive rebounding % which is 4th best on the nation at 37%. They extend possessions to make up for what they may lack in explosiveness. While Miami is also a good offensive rebounding team, they’re just average on the defensive glass. 

Miami has good guards and that’ll help neutralize Houston to an extent but the difference is Jarace Walker for the Cougars. Houston 63 Miami 58

2. Texas vs 3. Xavier 

Xavier is back in the Sweet 16, as is Sean Miller. Rodney Terry has done a great job getting Texas here as well despite a turbulent December. This could be one of the better games of the Sweet 16.

Texas still profiles as a national title contender. They’re 15th and 10th in KenPom offense and defense respectively. They’re 5th overall. X is 15th overall but a 64th rated defense is the red flag in this game.

Xavier has two defensive deficiencies. They don’t force turnovers and teams shoot the 3 ball well against them. Texas isn’t a great 3-point shooting team, however, and they don’t turn it over much. 

On the defensive side of things, Texas force a lot of turnovers and has the nation’s 57th best defensive effective fg%. They do not rebound well, 219th on defensive boards and they put teams on the line. They’re 240th in FTA/FGA. X doesn’t necessarily do those things great on offense but they do them well enough. They’re also the 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the nation.

I had Texas in the Final 4 but I sort of like X here. Xavier 81 Texas 78

Sweet 16: The South

Good job, Arizona, Virginia, Missouri & Baylor.

1. Alabama vs. 5. San Diego State

Good to see SDSU make a Sweet 16. We forget how good they were in 2020. They’re also real good this year. While Alabama is 2 in KenPom, SDSU is 14. They’re a legit Sweet 16 team. Can they win?

There’s a path to victory. They have the 4th best 3-point defense in the nation. Teams only shoot 28.7% from deep. Bama loves shooting the 3. They’re 8th in attempts in 3PA/FGA. While they shoot a lot, they’re middle of the road in overall 3-point shooting %. It’ll be imperative the Aztecs keep the Tide off the offensive glass. SDSU is 54th in defensive rebounding %. That’s strong.

The concern for the Aztecs is the offense is prone to rock fighting. 70th in KenPom, they’re taking on the nation’s 3rd best defense. Teams don’t shoot well typically against Alabama as evidenced by the fact they’re 3rd in 3pt fg% and 1st in 2pt fg% defense. Yeah, that’s a red flag for me for San Diego State.

San Diego State will need to muck it up but I think Alabama is too powerful for them and the offensive droughts SDSU have has me at Alabama 71 San Diego State 58

6. Creighton vs. 15. Princeton 

So, Princeton was certainly underseeded by the committee. The Ivy is 12th in KenPom conference rankings with a positive Adjusted EM, granted, small at +1.00. Losses to Delaware and Dartmouth crushed their net numbers. Still, let this be a lesson. An Ivy as a 15 should send off alarm bells in the future.

As for the game itself, Creighton is a heavy metrics favorite. Despite a wonky Big East season, they’re 12th in KenPom with the 23rd best offense and 13th best defense. Those are borderline national championship numbers and certainly Final Four good.

I’m trying to find something for Princeton that says they can win this game and all I got is, they just beat Arizona and Missouri, throw the numbers out. That said, I think Creighton is better than those two teams. One thing to keep in the back of your mind is, rumors are heavily circulating Gregg McDermott could be the next guy at Notre Dame. The team and him will have to answer those questions. Still, I’ll take Creighton 75 Princeton 60

Sweet 16: The West

The main event Thursday is out west. Even with the 1-seed at home, Arkansas has multiple NBA players. Whoever wins this region will have earned it.

4. UConn vs. 8. Arkansas

Arkansas is 19th in KenPom at the moment and a 6-point KenPom dog. UConn has all the earmarks of a national title contender despite a 4th place Big East finish.

Arkansas has a bad offense. They don’t shoot the 3 well at all and are 131st in effective fg%. They’re 23rd in getting to the line but 268th in FT%, so it’s a wash. UConn’s effective defensive fg% is 11th in the nation but they foul a it. They’re 319th in defensive FTA/FGA. The Hogs are going to get those FTs. If they shoot above average, there’s a chance to make hay.

On the offensive end for UConn, they’re 3rd in KenPom with the 53rd best effective FG% and 2nd in offensive rebounding %. Arkansas is slightly above average defensive rebounding team but not great. UConn should get extra possessions. 

Before the tourney, UConn had won 8 of 10 in the regular season and their loss in the BE Tournament was a tossup against Marquette. The Hogs lost 5 of 7, split in Nashville and beat Kansas without Bill Self. Give me UConn 70 Arkansas 64

2. UCLA vs. 3. Gonzaga

UCLA has the numbers of a possible champ but injury issues are mounting. Mick won’t let them run and the offense which I think could be more dynamic has enough stretches that even a weak defensive team like Gonzaga can do enough to win.

UCLA is 21st in KenPom offense. They limit turnovers and get to the glass but are 144th in effective FG%. The Zags don’t force a lot of turns but clean the defensive glass. The concern is their defensive effective fg% which is 245th in the nation. That’s hard to look past.

It’s hard to look past until you get to the offense which is the best in America because they don’t turn it over, 12th in turnover % and have the nation’s best offensive effective fg% at 58.3. To top it off, they’re above average in offensive rebounding and getting to the line. Just to add to the pile, they’re 2nd in 2pt fg% and 10th in 3pt fg%.

Of course, UCLA is 2nd in defensive effective fg%. UCLA does everything well on defense except maybe rebound and even that shouldn’t be a concern. What gives in the rubber match between these West Coast powers? I can’t get past the Zags defensive deficiency and think UCLA has enough in the tank to get this one but if they see guys fall out due to injury during the game, all bets are off but as is? Give me UCLA 72 Gonzaga 71 in another classic

Sweet 16: The East

Back in the real world this week after an opening weekend that began with so much promise and then crashed in spectacular fashion. Let’s make some picks.

7. Michigan State vs. 3. Kansas State

Let’s get the disclaimer out of the way, Michigan State is gross. Tom Izzo is gross. The deification of college coaches is gross. This game is gross.

KenPom calls this a tossup and it is. Neither is separated by much according to fancy stats but this should send alarm bells off. KState is 285th in offensive turnover % and 241st in defensive rebounding %. Sparty isn’t great at forcing turnovers or offensive rebounding but if you have to pick which team wins this battle, it’s usually Michigan State.

Michigan State has been prone to real dumb basketball at times this year and Izzo’s stubbornness almost cost him yesterday when he auto benched Hoggard for the final 8 minutes of the first half. Also, despite the Izzo is March stuff, his team also lost to a bad Ohio State team in the Big Ten quarters. 

If K-State controls turnovers, they can win.  If they turn it over a lot like they have throughout the course of the season, they lose. Markquis Nowell does have the look of a guy trying to become a legend. Well, this is your chance against one of the last big name teams left. It’s a tossup but those turnover numbers sway me to Michigan State 62 Kansas State 58

4. Tennessee vs. 9. Florida Atlantic

I have some thoughts on Tennessee’s approach this past Saturday. It was obvious they were going to play bully ball against Duke and it worked. I’m not sure it can work against a team playing with house money, however.

There is no questioning the Vols defense. It’s the best in the land. The offense, though, has dropped to 60 in KenPom. That’s not a legit title contender. Zak Zeigler’s injury seemed like a death blow but maybe a few games without him have forced them to embrace the defensive side and damn the torpedoes. It also helps having Santiago Vescovi play like an All-American, too.

FAU is solid and shoots the 3-well. Tennessee has the nation’s best 3-point defense. I think FAU has to be hot early and force Tennessee to make buckets. If the Vols defense is suffocating the Owls, they win pretty easily, albeit maybe not as aesthetically pretty. If FAU comes out blazing, things get interesting. My guess is, they don’t and that sways me to Tennessee 61 FAU 53

Final Four Picks

South Region

1 Alabama over 6 Creighton

East Region

1 Duke over 2 Marquette

Midwest Region

1 Houston over 3 Xavier

West Region

3 Gonzaga over 4 Connecticut

Final Four

 Duke over Alabama

Gonzaga over Houston

Final

Duke over Gonzaga

Reseeding the East

1. Tennessee

2. Purdue

3. Marquette

4. Memphis

5. Duke 

6. Kansas State 

7. FAU

8. Kentucky 

9. Michigan State

10. USC 

So, woof? Tennessee lost Zak Zeigler, so falling to a 4 isn’t a surprise. They still have the KenPom number 2 defense, but, yeah. 

You have 3 KenPom top 12 teams but one of which is compromised. Purdue has no excuses not go make the Final 4. That said, Duke is surging and Marquette hasn’t lost since early February. And frankly, Purdue isn’tgetting a break from whoever wins the 8/9.

Worth noting a potential Hauser Bowl in round two. Bitter Marquette fans are torn going against their wronged prince.

Oral Roberts can score. And they don’t turn it over. Methinks some sweating awaits Brian. After that though, I love their path. It’s them or Marquette and I’m picking Duke 

Reseeding The West

1. UCLA 

2. UConn

3. Gonzaga 

4. Kansas

5. St. Mary’s

6. Arkansas 

7. TCU

8. Boise State

9. Illinois

10. Northwestern 

This is the region of death. There are 5 KenPom top-11 teams in this region. 5! 

St. Mary’s has to fly across the country to play VCU in Albany. That’s wrong. If they win, they likely get UConn but UConn probably isn’t thrilled that they got Iona either. However, I love UConn in the top half of this bracket.

This is no picnic for Kansas either. They get stuck in the hardest region for all 1-seeds and a potential second round game with Arkansas who has two NBA lottery picks. 

Another potential UCLA-Gonzaga tilt awaits as well. 

I thought I’d go against the grain in picking UConn but a lot of people have picked them. I think the winner of them and Kansas makes the final four and I’ll stick with UConn.

Reseeding the Midwest

1. Houston

2. Texas

3. Xavier

4. Iowa State

5. Texas A&M

6. Auburn

7. Indiana

8. Iowa

9. Penn State

10. Miami

Yes, Miami is way overseeded. They should be the 5-seed most vulnerable to an upset. They have an injury concern and are terrible defensively. A&M is a sneaky tough matchup for Texas in a potential round 2 matchup and will be super fun. 

The question is how healthy is Houston? Sounds like Sasser will be good to go but if he isn’t, the Cougars are vulnerable beginning in round two.

A Houston-Texas regional final is spicy and what I expect. Overall, not a great region.

The Pick is Texas

Reseeding The South

1. Alabama

2. Arizona

3. Creighton

4. San Diego State

5. West Virginia

6. Utah State

7. Maryland

8. Virginia

9. Missouri

The South is the region of mystery. A lot of KenPom teams that were seeded much lower than their analytics would seed them. No arguments to be made, though.

Reality is, this region could get wonky but I think it’s between Alabama and Arizona. The 4 & 5 seeds are definitely vulnerable here. Furman can beat Virginia and SDSU has to travel to Orlando to play Charleston. The non power 5 got screwed.

No storyline matchups in this region either. Boring

The Pick is Alabama

Final Bracket

1 seed vs 16 seed
Houston(AAC) vs SEMO(OVC)/Tex Southern(SWAC)
Kansas vs Howard(MEAC)/FDU(NEC)
Alabama(SEC) vs T.A&M-CC(Sland)
Purdue (B1G) vs N. Kentukcy (Hor)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Texas(B12) vs UNC-Ash(Bsouth)
Marquette(Beast) vs Montana St(Bsky)
Arizona(Pac12) vs Colgate(Pat)
UCLA vs Princeton(Ivy)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Connecticut vs Vermont(Aeast)
Gonzaga(WCC) vs Kenessaw(Asun)
Baylor vs UCSB(Bwest)
Tennessee vs GrandCanyon(WAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Kansas St vs Furman(SoCon)
Xavier vs Kent State(MAC)
Duke(ACC) vs Louisiana(Sbelt)
Texas A&M vs Iona(MAAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Iowa State vs Charleston(Col)
Virginia vs VCU(A10)
Miami vs Drake(Mvalley)
Indiana vs Oral Roberts(Sum)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Creighton vs Utah St/Arizona St
SD St(Mwest) vs Rutgers/Mississippi St
TCU vs Pittsbugh
St. Mary's vs USC
7 seed vs 10 seed
Northwestern vs Providence
Missouri vs Boise State
Kentucky vs Illinois
Michigan State vs NC State
8 seed vs 9 seed
Maryland vs West Virginia
Memphis vs Penn State
Arkansas vs FAU(Cusa)
Auburn vs Iowa
First Four Out
Nevada
Oklahoma St
Oregon
Vanderbilt
Next Four Out
Clemson
Michigan
North Carolina
Wisconsin

Almost Done

 Just fit Princeton into the bracket.  I don't think the last two games will matter much.

I think its going to come down to Arizona State or Nevada for the final spot but the committee could surprise and leave out Rutgers or Pittsburgh.

Todays Bids

 Ivy - Yale vs Princeton 

Pick - Yale

A-10 - VCU vs Dayton 

Pick - Dayton 

SEC - Alabama vs Texas A&M

Pick - Alabama

American - Houston vs Memphis

Pick - Memphis

Big 10 - Penn State vs Purdue

Pick - Penn State

Early Sunday Bracket

1 seed vs 16 seed
Houston(AAC) vs SEMO(OVC)/Tex Southern(SWAC)
Kansas vs Howard(MEAC)/FDU(NEC)
Alabama(SEC) vs T.A&M-CC(Sland)
Purdue (B1G) vs N. Kentukcy (Hor)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Texas(B12) vs UNC-Ash(Bsouth)
Marquette(Beast) vs Montana St(Bsky)
Arizona(Pac12) vs Colgate(Pat)
Gonzaga(WCC) vs Kenessaw(Asun)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Connecticut vs Vermont(Aeast)
UCLA vs UCSB(Bwest)
Baylor vs GrandCanyon(WAC)
Tennessee vs Furman(SoCon)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Kansas St vs Kent State(MAC)
Xavier vs Louisiana(Sbelt)
Duke(ACC) vs Yale(Ivy)
Texas A&M vs Iona(MAAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
TCU vs Charleston(Col)
Virginia vs VCU(A10)
Miami vs Drake(Mvalley)
Indiana vs Oral Roberts(Sum)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Creighton vs Utah St/Arizona St
SD St(Mwest) vs Rutgers/Mississippi St
Northwestern vs Pittsbugh
St. Mary's vs USC
7 seed vs 10 seed
Iowa State vs Providence
Missouri vs West Virginia
Kentucky vs Boise State
Michigan State vs NC State
8 seed vs 9 seed
Maryland vs Iowa
Illinois vs Penn State
Arkansas vs FAU(Cusa)
Auburn vs Memphis
First Four Out
Nevada
Oklahoma St
Oregon
Vanderbilt
Next Four Out
Clemson
Michigan
North Carolina
Wisconsin

Saturday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Houston(AAC) vs FDU(NEC)/SEMO(OVC)
Kansas(B12) vs T.A&M-CC(Sland)/Howard(MEAC)
Alabama(SEC) vs Grambling(SWAC)
UCLA(Pac12) vs N. Kentukcy (Hor)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Purdue (B1G) vs UNC-Ash(Bsouth)
Texas vs Montana St(Bsky)
Marquette(Beast) vs Colgate(Pat)
Gonzaga(WCC) vs Kenessaw(Asun)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Connecticut vs Vermont(Aeast)
Arizona vs UCSB(Bwest)
Baylor vs S. Utah(WAC)
Tennessee vs Furman(SoCon)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Kansas St vs Toledo(MAC)
Xavier vs Louisiana(Sbelt)
Virginia(ACC) vs Yale(Ivy)
Indiana vs Iona(MAAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
TCU vs Charleston(Col)
Duke vs VCU(A10)
Miami vs Drake(Mvalley)
Texas A&M vs Oral Roberts(Sum)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Creighton vs Utah St/Arizona St
SD St(Mwest) vs Rutgers/Mississippi St
Northwestern vs Pittsbugh
St. Mary's vs USC
7 seed vs 10 seed
Iowa State vs Providence
Missouri vs West Virginia
Kentucky vs Penn State
Michigan State vs NC State
8 seed vs 9 seed
Maryland vs Iowa
Illinois vs Boise State
Arkansas vs FAU(Cusa)
Auburn vs Memphis
First Four Out
Nevada
Oklahoma St
Oregon
Vanderbilt
Next Four Out
Clemson
Michigan
North Carolina
Wisconsin

Bubble

 A new Bracket will be out later but first glance this morning tells me the bubble is all but settled.  There's a chance of some bid stealers but the only team who can win today and lose tomorrow and possibly make the tournament is Vanderbilt.

Reviewing one last time before posting....

Today's Bids

America East: No. 2 UMass-Lowell vs. No.1 Vermont

Pick – No.1 Vermont.

MEAC: No. 3 Norfolk State vs. No. 1 Howard

Pick – No. 3 Norfolk State

SWAC: No. 8 Texas Southern vs. No. 2 Grambling

Pick – No. 2 Grambling

Big 12: No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 1 Texas

Pick – No. 2 Kansas

Mountain West: No. 3 Utah State vs. No. 1 San Diego State

Pick – No. 3 Utah State

Big East: No. 2 Xavier vs. No. 1 Marquette

Pick – No. 2 Xavier

MAAC: No. 11 Marust vs. No. 1 Iona

Pick – No. 1 Iona

MAC: No. 2 Kent State vs. No. 1 Toledo

Pick – No. 2 Kent State

ACC: No. 4 Duke vs. No. 2 Virginia

Pick – No.4 Duke

Conference USA: No. 3 UAB vs. No. 1 FAU

Pick – No. 3 UAB

Big West: No. 4 Cal State-Fullerton vs. No. 2 UC-Santa Barbara

Pick – No. 4 Cal State-Fullerton

Pac-12: No. 2 Arizona vs. No.1 UCLA

Pick – No. 1 UCLA

WAC: No. 5 Grand Canyon vs. No. 3 Southern Utah

Pick – No. 3 Southern Utah

Wednesday Night Results

Teams that had a good day:

Utah State - beats New Mexico to keep their at-large hopes alive

Mississippi State - An Overtime win will put them in today's bracket

Arizona State - Stays in the conversation by beating USC

Rutgers - beats Michigan in a lose and you are out game

Teams that had a bad day:

Michigan- bye bye

New Mexico - gone

North Carolina - 95% sure they are out with a loss last night

Oklahoma State - could of locked a bid in with a win.  Now I'm not so sure where they stand.

There were a couple other losses that I need to figure out including USC, Providence, and West Virginia.  They seem safe but I want to finalize their numbers and go from there.

Late Bubble Games

Penn State vs Illinois – PSU is an 11 seed and more than likely need today to be safe

Arkansas vs Auburn – I would guess both are in but if one team blows out the other there may be questions.

Oklahoma State vs Texas – State is my last team in right now.  It’s not a bad loss but with bid stealers coming I wouldn’t want to be one of the last 2-3 in by Saturday

North Carolina vs Virginia – Can we make it so both teams lose?  UNC still needs to win this game to be in.

Boise State vs UNLV – this would be a bad loss for Boise and they shouldn’t risk it at this point

Louisiana Tech vs North Texas – Conference Tournament Title game or bust for sure for the Mean Green

NC State vs Clemson – the 6 seed is safe but 3 seeded Clemson needs to win 2 to be in.

Arizona State vs USC – ASU needs the win while USC could get in with a loss here

New Mexico vs Utah State – This, like Rutgers vs Michigan is a loser is out game.

Bubble Burst

Wake Forest is official out.  Looks like Michigan will join Wisconsin in the NIT.

Rutgers is looking good for a last 4 in.

Early Bubble Games - Thursday

 
Rutgers vs Michigan – this may be winner is in, loser is out.
 
Wake Forest vs Miami – The Deacon’s slim hopes hang on to a win over Miami otherwise they are done
 
Mississippi St vs Florida – I have Miss St out but most brackets have them in.  This game is a must win.

West Virginia vs Kansas – I said earlier they should be locked in.  Can’t lose by 30 here.
 
Washington State vs Oregon – I admittingly haven’t dug deep into Oregon’s resume.  I do know they need 2 wins at least in the conference tournament.

Wednesday Night Results

 

Congratulations to Texas A&M-CC, Colgate, and Montana State on punching their tickets to the Big Dance.  Auto Bids are done for a couple days so we focus on Bubble Teams going forward.

Teams that had a good day:

Wake Forest – hung on to their slim hopes of a at-large by sending Jim Boeheim into retirement.

Pittsburgh – I think they did enough for an at-large even if they get blown out by Duke today.

North Carolina – Crushed Boston College and now comes the question whether they need to win today or if this was enough.  I lean towards win today.

West Virginia – should be locked in after beating Texas Tech

New Mexico – slim hopes are alive and there are plenty of Q1 wins to have in the Mountain West tournament.

Oklahoma State – they probably took Wisconsin’s bid with last nights win.  Can they keep it?

NC State – dancing, that’s a lock

Arizona State – hanging on to that dream.  Need at least one more win, maybe two.

 

Teams that had a bad day:

Seton Hall – probably didn’t have a chance at an at-large anyway but now there is no chance.

Wisconsin – I guess they proved what we all thought; they weren’t a tournament team anyway.  Lost by 8 but it wasn’t close all game.  Their NET is not good enough for an at-large so they will fall out today.

Thursday (and Saturday) Conference Tips

Thursday

MAC #1 Seed - Toledo

Pick - #3 Akron 

American #1 Seed – Houston

Pick - #1 Houston

Saturday

Ivy #1 Seed - Yale

Pick - #1 Yale

America

The American Athletic Conference tournament kicks-off tomorrow live from Fort Worth, TX. The 1-seed is Houston who is 1 in just about everything. They can win it all and stuff.

Not much else to see here. Memphis should be in. Outside that, the league needs a bid thief. The most likely candidates are UCF, 62nd in KenPom, Cincinnati, 65th in KenPom or Tulane, 99th in KenPom. Temple was playing well but lost 6 of 8.

Houston is the pick but wouldn’t mind seeing someone steal a bid here 

Late Bubble Games – Wednesday

Ohio State vs Wisconsin – Huge bubble game to start the night.  Wisconsin has a barely good enough resume as is with a Net in the 70s.  A loss here dooms them out.  A win might be enough to lock them in.

 

Boston College vs North Carolina – Currently out, UNC needs this one and probably the next one as well. Boy, it would be a shame….

 

Texas Tech vs West Virginia – West Virginia is currently a 10 seed and their computer numbers would say they are safe.  Still one more win wouldn’t hurt

 

Wyoming vs New Mexico – The Lobos have fallen apart and now are just an Also Considered.  They need a deep run to leap past 8+ teams

 

Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State – Okie State is my first team out.  A loss here and they remain out.  It’s a tough road but it has to start tonight.

 

Virginia Tech vs North Carolina State – NC State may not be as safe as people think.  Most have them as a 9 seed and their numbers don’t jump out at you in the mid 40s.  More than likely safe but win here and you are in.

Early Bubble Games – Wednesday

 

Wake Forest vs Syracuse – Wake is way off the bubble but with a run could get back on it.  Syracuse is out

Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh – Pitt is not as safe as you would think.  The computer numbers are not good and this would be a bad loss.  Currently a 9 seed.

Depaul vs Seton Hall – The Hall is in the same situation as Wake Forest.  Continue to win and hope.

Wednesday Conference Tips

MEAC #1 Seed - Howard
Pick - #2 NC-Central
 
SWAC #1 Seed – Alcorn State
Pick - #2 Grambling
 
Big 12 #1 Seed - Kansas
Pick - #4 Baylor
 
Mountain West #1 Seed – San Diego State
Pick - #3 Utah State

Big East #1 Seed - Marquette
Pick - #4 Connecticut
 
Conference USA #1 Seed – Florida Atlantic
Pick - #2 North Texas
 
Pac 12 #1 Seed - UCLA
Pick - #2 Arizona
 
SEC #1 Seed - Alabama
Pick - #4 Missouri
 
Big Ten #1 Seed - Purdue
Pick - #10 Penn State

Today's Bids

Southland: #1 Texas A&M-CC vs #2 Northwestern St

Pick - #2 Northwestern St

Patriot: #1 Colgate vs #6 Lafayette

Pick - #1 Colgate

Big Sky: #2 Montana State vs #9 Northern Arizona

Pick #2 Montana State

Mountain West & SEC

Mountain West

The Mountain West returns to Las Vegas for their conference tournament. In his last bracket, Brian had 4 teams in the tournament. Two of them were last 4 in, so buckle up.

The league is 6th best in KenPom, with conference champ San Diego State up to 15 overall. Utah State is 23 and Boise State is 29. Nevada checks in at 39.

The early season darling was New Mexico who ended up 8-10 in conference play and need to win the tournament to make the dance. If someone from this league steals a bid, it’ll likely be from one of their brethren. The pick is San Diego St., however, so only the drama of Sunday night.

SEC

The SEC is playing its tournament in Nashville. If you’re there, get yourself some delicious Nelson Brothers bourbon. The 1-seed is Alabama. The 2-seed is Texas A&M. Bama had the leagues best offense and defense during league play.

Picking a winner here is another adventure. Bama is clearly the best team but might be distracted. A&M is the 4th best KenPom team, behind Kentucky and Arkansas. Mississippi State and Vandy need wins.

I’m taking Vandy to shock the world and steal a bid. They won 8 of their last 9 and it’s a “home game” or something.

Wednesday Big Tourneys

Big XII

The Big XII, hands down the best league in the nation, begins their conference tournament from Kansas City on Wednesday.

7 teams are KenPom top-25. Is it an 8-bid league? Maybe, but it’s definitely putting 7 in the dance. The game in question to watch will be Oklahoma State against Oklahoma in the 7-10 game. The Pokes can’t lose. A loss pops the bubble. A win gets them Texas and a path to dance.

As for the rest of the league, the seeds seems pretty set for the most part. Could Texas Tech or OU steal a bid? Maybe, but it seems unlikely. The pick is Kansas.

Big East

The Big East returns to MSG on Wednesday for its tournament. Your Marquette Golden Eagles are the 1-seed. 5 teams appear to be locks, though, if I’m Providence I’m a little nervous.

There is a chance for a bid thief here. Seton Hall likes to muck things up and can defend. Doubt they have enough offense, though. Villanova will be a trendy pick here and they’ve played better, winning 6 of 8. They get GTown and then Xavier in the quarters. Again, a path to the final exists. Do watch X this week, too. They’ve actually been statistically better without Zach Fremantle. Depth is a concern and this will be a good test for that. 

The pick is UConn who is the best team in the league and good enough to cut down the nets at MSG and Houston.

Big Ten

The Big Ten goes to Chicago for their tournament. Purdue is the 1-seed and then it’s 100% chaos. Not a criticism. The league is good in depth, just lacking great teams, though I think there is one lurking.

That team lurking is Michigan State. I don’t necessarily need to see them win the league but playing Sunday will make them someone worth paying attention to next week. If we get sloppy Sparty, then I won’t get fooled again.

Bid thief? It depends. Michigan has to be out at the moment but they’re dumb enough to win this tourney. Same with Nebraska. I’m taking Michigan State because I have to take someone. Good luck figuring this one out. 

Today's Bids

 

Colonial - #2 Charleston vs #4 UNC-Wilmington
 
Pick - #2 Charleston
 
Horizon - #3 Cleveland State vs #4 Northern Kentucky
 
Pick - #3 Cleveland State
 
Northeast - #1 Merrimack vs #2 FDU
 
Pick –  #2 FDU (they get the bid win or lose)
 
Summit - #1 Oral Roberts vs #3 North Dakota State
 
Pick - #1 Oral Roberts
 
West Coast - #1 St. Mary’s vs #2 Gonzaga
 
Pick - #2 Gonzaga

Tuesday Conference Tips

Congrats to Louisiana and Furman on locking up bids last night.  We have 5 going out tonight as well as 5 more tournaments starting.

MAAC #1 Seed - Iona

Pick - #1 Iona

ACC#1 Seed - Miami

Pick - #4 Duke

Big West - #1 Seed - UC-Irvine

Pick - #4 CS-Fullerton

WAC #1 Seed - Sam Houston St

Pick - #2 Utah Valley

A-10 - #1 Seed - VCU

Pick - #4 St. Louis

The ACC Tournament

The ACC Tournament begins tomorrow from Greensboro, much to the delight of Jim Boeheim. The ACC is the 7th best conference this year behind the Mountain West. According to KenPom, the league is closer to the WCC than the Mountain West. The league has seen better times.

In Brian’s latest bracket, he has 5 ACC teams in the bracket. Virginia, Duke and Miami are locks. Pitt and NC State appear pretty safe as well. Not in, are Clemson, UNC & Syracuse. Neither is Louisville who is 284th in KenPom. I’ll assume that’s the worse any of the blue bloods have ever been in KenPom.

Clemson earned the 3-seed and of the aforementioned bubble teams, has a window that seems feasible. They should get NC State. A win would propel them into a possible matchup with Virginia or UNC. Get to the final and see what happens. Or they could lose right away and hope the NIT has slots.

The scenario that should have non-ACC bubble Teams worried is, chaos on Tobacco Road. It’s entirely possible. Miami is the 1-seed and doesn’t play defense. Virginia is the 2-seed but isn’t a vintage Tony Bennett team. Only 36th in KenPom, they can be had by anyone.

Is Duke the best team? Maybe. They’ve dealt with injuries but are finally healthy. They’ve won 6 straight. Kyle Filipowski is the best player in the league. Still, they turn it over way too much. It’ll get them in the big dance and may get them this week.

I’m picking chaos and taking Clemson because the rules of these things say you have to pick someone but won’t be surprised if it’s someone winning 4 in 4 days.

Wednesday Conference Tournaments: The Mid-Majors

Let’s wrap up the mid-majors.

Conference USA

Conference USA is playing its games in Frisco, Texas. Who is in Conference USA? Fair question. No one really knows but it was a pretty good league this year. 10th best in KenPom.

The champ was Florida Atlantic. FAU is 28-3 and 27th in KenPom. They should be a lock over say, Wisconsin, but we know how this works. Based on Brian’s latest bracket, I think they’re a lock.

Not a lock is North Texas and UAB. Both are 46th and 58th in KenPom. UAB needs to win the tournament to get in. They were swept by UNT and split with FAU. I’ll take UAB for the mass chaos it’ll cause amongst some of the big boys.

MEAC

Howard won the league but North Carolina Central has the best KenPom number at 195. Norfolk State is 204 and all games are played in Norfolk. However, North Carolina Central has won 7 straight while Howard and Norfolk State have stumbled to the finish line. Give me LeVelle Moten and the Eagles.

SWAC

The SWAC is playing its games in Birmingham. Alcorn State is the 1-seed by virtue of a win over Grambling State. Both finished 15-3 in league. Alcorn State also has wins over Wichita State & Stephen F. Austin. They’re 239 in KenPom.

Grambling State is 173 in KenPom and has a win over Colorado and Vandy. They’re the pick here. No other team has a winning record overall and only 3 others are top-300 in KenPom.

MAC

The MAC begins their tournament on Thursday from Cleveland. The regular season champ was Toledo who is 84th in KenPom. Kent State finished second and is 80th in KenPom.

On January 10th, Toledo went into Kent State and lost 75-63. They’ve reeled off 15 straight wins since then. That includes 2 double-digit wins over 3-seed Akron. The Zips are 110 in KenPom.

The pick is Toledo. The Rockets have won their 3rd straight regular season title under Tod Kowalczyk. They haven’t danced since 1980. That ends this year and they win a game next week.

Monday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Houston(AAC) vs AlcornSt(SWAC)/SEMO(OVC)
Kansas(B12) vs FDU(NEC)/Howard(MEAC)
Alabama(SEC) vs T.A&M-CC(Sland)
UCLA(Pac12) vs UNC-Ash(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Purdue (B1G) vs Vermont(Aeast)
Texas vs Montana St(Bsky)
Marquette(Beast) vs Kenessaw(Asun)
Baylor vs YoungSt(Hor)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Baylor vs Colgate(Pat)
Kansas St vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
Gonzaga vs Hofstra(CAA)
Connecticut vs Furman(SoCon)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Xavier vs Toledo(MAC)
Tennessee vs Louisiana(Sbelt)
Arizona vs Yale(Ivy)
Virginia vs S.Houston(WAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Indiana vs Iona(MAAC)
St. Mary's(WCC) vs VCU(A10)
Duke vs Drake(Mvalley)
Miami(ACC) vs Oral Roberts(Sum)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Texas A&M vs Wisconsin/Utah St
Creighton vs Rutgers/Nevada
SD St(Mwest) vs Penn State
Northwestern vs Boise State
7 seed vs 10 seed
Missouri vs Arkansas
Iowa State vs West Virginia
TCU vs Auburn
Kentucky vs USC
8 seed vs 9 seed
Michigan State vs FAU(Cusa)
Providence vs Pittsbugh
Iowa vs NC State
Illinois vs Memphis
First Four Out
Charleston
Oklahoma St
Mississippi St
North Carolina
Next Four Out
North Texas
Michigan
Arizona St
Clemson
Also Considered
Oregon
New Mexico
Vanderbilt

Monday Notes

Congrats to SEMO, Kennesaw St, Drake, FDU, and UNC-Ashville on grabbing bids this weekend.  FDU still plays on Tuesday but they have the bid since Merrimack is ineligible.

Here are the bids for tonight. No conference start today but we are down to 7 days of basketball.

SoCon - #1 Furman vs #7 Chattanooga

Pick - #1 Furman

SunBelt - #2 Louisiana vs #8 South Alabam

Pick - #2 Louisiana

Tuesday Conference Tournaments: The Mid-Major Edition

Things get mad starting Tuesday as we have multiple leagues tip-off, some continuing and a few ending. Let’s look at the mid-majors as we’ll give the big boys a deeper look.

A-10

It’s kind of sad to include the A-10 in this but they’re the 12th best KenPom league, between the WAC & Sun Belt. The tournament will be played in Brooklyn and is a one-bid league in 2023.

VCU won the league and is 75th in KenPom. Runner-up Dayton is 72. They’re very close according to the analytic. No other team is top-100 in KenPom. St. Louis is close at 103 and has a talented roster. Despite that, they’re 5-5 in their last 10.

Fordham and Duquesne have had impressive seasons. It would be wild to see one of them win the tournament. I’ll take VCU.

Big West

The Big West tips Tuesday from Henderson, NV. The Big West may have one of the more entertaining tournaments this season. UC-Irvine is the 1-seed. The Anteaters are 100 in KenPom and have a win over Oregon. 

The 2-seed, UC-Santa Barbara is 107 in KenPom. The 3-seed is UC-Riverside who is 144 in KenPom. The 4&5 seeds, UC-Fullerton and Hawaii, 117 and 126 in KenPom are the 4-5 game and either one can win this.

The pick is Irvine but this thing is wide open.

MAAC

Our friends in the northeast begin Tuesday live from Atlanatic City. Iona won the league going away and is 78th in KenPom and the proverbial team no one wants to see.

Only 2 other teams are top-200 KenPom. They are 2-seed Rider at 197 and 3-seed Quinnipiac at 171. Siena is the 4-seed at 203. I’ll argue it’s better for the league and the tournament for Iona to win and they’re the pick. That said, this league tends to produce some upsets, including St. Peter’s last year.

WAC

The WAC has been good this year. As mentioned earlier, it’s better than the A-10. They have 2 top-100 KenPom teams. 1-seed Utah Valley is 79 in KenPom. They own wins over Oregon and BYU. They also have a win over 2-seed Sam Houston St. in their only matchup.

Sam Houston State is 66 in KenPom with the nation’s 15th best defense. Southern Utah is 102 in KenPom. They split with the other two teams. Grand Canyon is 120 in KenPom and Stephen F. Austin is 129. 

Another late night league, like the Big West, this tournament ought to be a lot of fun. I’ll take Sam Houston State 

Bids! Bids, and more Bids!

 Congrats to SEMO on locking up the first bid of the year last night in the Ohio Valley.  3 More bids come out today.  We will hit those then get bubbly and then highlight today's games.

Big South - #1 UNC-Ashville vs #7 Campbell

Pick - Campbell

Missouri Valley - #1 Bradley vs #2 Drake

Pick - Drake

Atlantic Sun - #1 Kennesaw St vs #2 Liberty

Pick - Liberty

Woebegone Wisconsin

There are currently a plethora of Wisconsin cager fans who want Greg Gard sent to the moon via cannon. As of this afternoon, the Badgers are either one of the last teams in the tournament or one of the first out. It’s bubble season in Madison a year after sharing a Big Ten title.

So, what happened? The simple answer is they lost a lottery pick in Johnny Davis. It isn’t easy to replace those but Davis was also an inefficient player at times and high usage player. They probably miss Brad Davison more, who was more efficient. 

The big drop off has come from Tyler Wahl who has battled injuries this year. Last year, he had an ORtg of 106.8 this year and it’s 89.1 this year. His usage has skyrocketed and  his offense has cratered overall. Chucky Hepburn gets a lot criticism and his end of game decision making isn’t great, but he’s pretty much the same player as he was last year.

The offense just isn’t good this year. It’s 148th in KenPom after being 62nd last year. They still don’t turn it over. The effective fg% this year is 262nd in the nation, actually better than last year’s 276th. They’re shooting 35.7% from 3 this year versus 30.6% last year. They’re worse on 2pt shooting. What’s stunning is the 66.7% FT shooting, 323 in the nation.

15-5 in 5 point games last year, they’re 9-8 in such games this year. Basically, last year, they had luck on their side. 

As of today, most of the roster is scheduled to be back. Don’t count on it. They’ll be active in the transfer portal, coming and going. Barring a big run in the tournament, next year is a vital year for the future of Greg Gard at UW-Madison

Southland Conference Tournament

The Southland tips-off tomorrow from Lake Charles, Louisiana. Texas A&M-Chorpus Christi won the regular season title and is the only top-200 KenPom team. They’ve won 10 out of 11 and are the pick.

Saturday Morning Rumbling

 New Mexico took another loss and they are definitely on the wring side of the bubble.

The first bid goes out later tonight and there are plenty of bubble games.  Hope to update through the day.

Ohio Valley

#2 Tenn Tech vs #5 SE Missouri St

The winner is a 16 seed at best and I may invent a 17 seed if it's SE Missouri.  The pick is Tennessee Tech

Conference Tournaments - Saturday/Sunday

Big Sky - #1 Seed: Eastern Washington
Pick - #2 Montana State
 
America East - #1 Seed: Vermont
Pick - #1 Vermont
 
Southland - #1 Seed: Texas A&M - CC
Pick - #3 SELA

Friday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Houston(AAC) vs Howard(MEAC)/MoreheadSt(OVC)
Kansas(B12) vs FDU(NEC)/Grambling(SWAC)
Alabama(SEC) vs TexasA&M-CC(Sland)
UCLA(Pac12) vs UNC-Ashville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Purdue (B1G) vs Vermont(Aeast)
Baylor vs E.Wash(Bsky)
Texas vs KenessawSt(Asun)
Kansas St vs YoungSt(Hor)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Tennessee vs Colgate(Pat)
Arizona vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
Marquette(Beast) vs Hofstra(CAA)
Gonzaga vs Furman(SoCon)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Connecticut vs Toledo(MAC)
Xavier vs SoMiss(Sbelt)
Virginia(ACC) vs Yale(Ivy)
Indiana vs Utah Valley(WAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
St. Mary's(WCC) vs Iona(MAAC)
Duke vs VCU(A10)
Miami vs Bradley(Mvalley)
San Diego St(Mwest) vs Oral Roberts(Summit)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Creighton vs Miss St/Penn St
TCU vs West Virginia/UNC
Northwestern vs Auburn
Missouri vs Rutgers
7 seed vs 10 seed
Texas A&M vs USC
Iowa State vs Arkansas
Providence vs Nevada
Iowa vs Boise State
8 seed vs 9 seed
Michigan State vs FAU(Cusa)
Kentucky vs Pittsbugh
Illinois vs NC State
Maryland vs Memphis
First Four Out
Wisconsin
Charleston
Utah St
Oklahoma St
Next Four Out
New Mexico
Michigan
Arizona St
Clemson
Also Considered
Oregon
North Texas
Virginia Tech
Cincinnati
Wake Forest

Conference Tourneys March 4

Two more leagues begin March festivities on Saturday. The America East and Big Sky tip-off respectively. 

America East

The American East will play all its conference tournament games on campus sites. Once again, the league champ is Vermont. This isn’t a vintage Vermont team. They’re 124th in KenPom which is not as good as some Catamount teams of the past decade. They have some stinky losses but finished the season on a 12-game winning streak.

In second place is UMass-Lowell who split the regular season matchups with Vermont. They’re 140th in KenPom. No other team is top-200. The pick is Vermont who will scare someone in a few weeks for a half or so.

Big Sky

The Big Sky tips things off from beautiful Boise on Saturday. Eastern Washington is the 1-seed who was cruising along nicely until losing their last 2. That includes a loss on the road to a bad Idaho State team and at home to Montana State. EKU is 121 in KenPom

Montana State is the 2-seed. The Bobcats are 108 in KenPom and are a statistical favorite. Montana is 155 and Weber State is 199. 

The pick is going to be Montana State. Again, a possible pest in a few weeks. EKU’s defensive numbers are pretty putrid and that gives MSU the edge.

Summit League*

I missed the Summit for March 3 tournament starters. This bad boy will be played in Sioux Falls.

Oral Roberts is The 1-seed and prohibitive favorite. They went 18-0 in league and are 61st in KenPom. South Dakota State at 159 is the only other top-200 KenPom team. They lost this past weekend by 4 at home to Oral Bob. They also lost by 39 to them earlier in the year.

The pick is Oral Bob

Conference Tournaments - Friday

Only one bubble game tonight and that is New Mexico at Colorado State.  The Lobos need this.

Conference Tournaments kicking off today:

Southern - #1 Seed: Furman
Pick - #1 Furman
 
Colonial - #1 Seed: Hofstra
Pick - #2 Charleston
 
Summit - #1 Seed: Oral Roberts
Pick - #1 Oral Roberts

Bubble Results

Losers on the night include Michigan, Rutgers, Arizona State, USC, and Wisconsin.

I think one of Michigan or Wisconsin stays in the bracket after analysis is done but nobody is making a big push for the spots vacated by bottom team losing.  Of the last 7 teams in my bracket Monday, 5 of them (Wis, Mich, USC, Auburn, and Arkansas) lost. Of the 1st 7 out in the same time frame only Miss St, Penn St, Utah St, and New Mexico won.  The problem for those teams is that only Miss St was probably only win out of moving in.  The rest, with the exception of Utah St, who I will take a closer look at, are 2 wins out.

Winners on the night include FAU, Memphis, and North Texas.  The first 2 are locks at this point but North Texas needs to win out to the conference tournament final.

More posts to come today including bubble games today, conference tournament predictions, and a new bracket.  With the first bids coming tomorrow the analysis on the bracket goes from the normal form to the full form with Q1-Q4 wins, NET, KenPom, etc.  It's an exciting time!

Bubble Games Tonight

 Michigan is in a must win game at Illinois.  They need to keep the momentum and this would be a great win.  We will see if Jett Howard plays.

FAU is at Rice and currently has the auto-bid.  Their resume is at-large worthy but any loss hurts

North Texas hosts Middle Tenn St and they may not have a chance anyway but a loss kills them.

Arizona State is at UCLA and they need to build off the buzzer beater against Arizona.  Can't have a let down tonight.

Purdue is at Wisconsin and boy do the Badgers need this one.  A loss and Michigan win and they flip in and out.

Arizona is at USC and I think USC is probably safe but this would be nice for the old resume.

Conference Tourneys March 3

Friday sees two conference tournaments starting. The Colonial and SoCon begin respectively.

Colonial 

The CAA tournament will be played in Washington D.C. Insert your own jokes. Charleston was the early season darling and finished 16-2 in league. However, it is Hofstra is the 1-seed on the strength of a head-to-head win. Charleston is 71 in KenPom and Hofstra is 91.

Only two other teams are KenPom top-200. They are Towson at 137 and UNC-Wilmington at 172. The league wants one of the top-2 win. Charleston’s 2 losses in league were by a combined 5 points. They’re the pick but if it’s Hofstra, they can win a game in March.

SoCon 

The SoCon also kicks off Friday from Asheville, NC. After some years of multiple good mid-majors, the league was not nearly as good this season. Furman and Sanford shared the regular season title but Furman earned the 1-seed by virtue of a season sweep that included a decisive 14-point win at Samford this past Saturday. 

Furman is 89 in KenPom. They’ve been top-100 KenPom since 2018 but have been stifled in the conference tournament. Samford is 129. UNC-Greensboro is 108th in KenPom and the 3-seed. They finished 1-game out of 1st and are the only other team with a positive AdjustedEM.

The next best team is Chattanooga at 201 KenPom. One of the top 3 should win and like the CAA, that’s what they want. The pick is Furman to breakthrough 

Conference Tournaments - Thursday

 Missouri Valley - #1 Seed: Bradley

Pick – #2 Drake

 

West Coast - #1 Seed: Gonzaga

Pick - #1 Gonzaga

Bubble Results

 We were even on bubble games yesterday.  Pittsburgh took a bad loss at Notre Dame and Kentucky was "Bad Kentucky" again and lost to Vanderbilt.

On the positive side Penn State got a Quad 1 win over Northwestern while Utah State clung on to hope with a win over UNLV.

Conference Previews to come later...

Bubble Games Tonight

Vanderbilt @ Kentucky - The Wildcats seem safe at this point but this would be a bad loss.

Penn State @ Northwestern - PSU is running out of chances to get good wins.   This would be a good win.

Utah State @ UNLV - Utah State keeps hanging around the Next Four out but have a solid resume.  This game would help a little, but a loss would hurt a lot.

Conference Tourneys March 2

Two of the better conference tournaments commence starting Thursday, Arch Madness and the WCC. Let’s jump in.

Arch Madness (Missouri Valley)

Arch Madness may not be what it used to be but still draws great crowds from programs that love college hoops. Regular season champ Bradley, behind a stingy defense are the 1-seed and 79 in KenPom. Drake is the 2-seed and 80. They split in the regular season with the Braves winning this past weekend to take the outright season crown. It ended a 10-game winning streak for Drake and continues a 10-game streak for Bradley.

Indiana State at 97 is the only other KenPom top-100 team. Only 3 other teams are top-200. The Valley wants one of the top-3 to get that bid to have much of a chance next month. The pick is Drake, though it’s a coin flip between them and Bradley.

WCC

The WCC is playing their conference tournament in Las Vegas once again. St. Mary’s, 8th in KenPom is the 1-seed and Gonzaga, 10th in KenPom is the 2-seed. Both are tournament locks.

BYU is 77th in KenPom and the 5-seed. Santa Clara is 82nd in KenPom and the 3-seed. LMU is 101 in KenPom and the 4-seed. USF is 108 in KenPom and the 6-seed. LMU owns wins over the Zags and Gaels during the regular season.

This is a league where bubble teams do not want a bid thief and a league where it is possible, however, unlikely. The pick is Gonzaga but I’ll be rooting for some chaos. Santa Clara has 7 straight wins. Between them or LMU, those are your most likely thieves.

Conference Tournaments - Wednesday

Ohio Valley - #1 Seed: Morehead State

Pick – #1 Morehead State

Big South - #1 Seed: UNC-Ashville

Pick - #3 Longwood

 

Northeast - #1 Seed: Merrimack***

Pick – #4 Sacred Heart

Tuesday Night Results

 Lots of great action last night including Iowa crushing Indiana and Duke outlasting North Carolina State.  I'm biased but I need to take a longer look at this Duke team.  Them seem to be getting better as their entire team is finally completely healthy for a good 10 game stretch.  I think their only loss with a full roster (In a weaker ACC) is the joke that was Virginia.

Bubble Winners last night:

New Mexico - Next 4 Out
Texas A&M - Might be locked at this point
Mississippi State - its them vs Oklahoma St for the last spot in
Boise State - Should be in now
Virginia Tech - Just still an also Considered.

Bubble Losers last night:

Wake Forest - all but done
Texas Tech - is done
Arkansas - floating in the 10/11 seed area
Seton Hall - see Texas Tech

More conference tournaments tipping tonight...

Conference Tourneys March 1

Three more conferences tournaments begin on Wednesday. Time for a quick look.

Big South

The Big South invades Charlotte for their tournament this year. Three teams are currently above 200 in KenPom. They include league champ, UNC-Asheville at 148 who is one of two teams amongst conference brethren with a positive AdjEM. They won the league by 4 games and should be prohibitive favorites.

Longwood is also a positive AdjEM and 160 in KenPom but we’re swept by Asheville. Radford is 180 in KenPom. Winthrop has been the best offense during league play and has a win over Asheville.

Asheville is the pick and can probably be a pain for someone for awhile in a game in the opening round.

NEC

The NEC, the worst KenPom division in D1, also begins tomorrow night. All games will be played on campus sites. Merrimack won the league and still has an overall losing record. They have won 8 in a row.

All teams are in the 300’s, so it’s “wide-open”. Wagner has the best KenPom number at 315, one spot ahead of Merrimack and they have a road win over them as well. They’re the pick, even at 8-8 in league. Play-in fodder.

Ohio Valley 

The OVC kicks off tomorrow from Evansville, IN and will be the first league to put a team into the dance.

There is no Murray State or Belmont anymore, so the OVC has lost a bit of its luster. Morehead State won the regular season title by 3 games and is 241 in KenPom. There are a handful of teams between that number and 300 in KenPom, so Morehead State isn’t a lock.

Morehead State has won 11 of 12 and is the pick but this thing has the potential for chaos.

Tuesday Notes and Conference Tournaments

3 of the last 4 in played last night and 1 of them took a loss.  North Carolina beat Florida State to stay in the bracket while West Virginia got a great win at Iowa State to probably move up a bit.  Oklahoma State was only loser of the bunch getting beat by Baylor. Not a horrible loss but Mississippi state and Michigan are ready to pounce.

Also, Nevada took a bad loss at Wyoming.  They are a 10 seed currently but this one hurts the resume.

As for my Tuesday Conference previews, here you go:

Sun Belt - #1 Seed: Southern Miss

Pick: #3 Seed Marshall

 

Horizon - #1 Seed: Youngstown State

Pick: #3 Seed Cleveland State

 

Patriot - #1 Seed: Colgate

Pick: #1 Seed Colgate

Conference Tournaments February 28 Edition

Horizon League

Our friends in the Horizon League begin their conference tournament tomorrow at campus sites and play the semi-finals and the final in Indianapolis.

Youngstown State won the league and is the top KenPom team at 122. Northern Kentucky is 174 and Cleveland State is 187. The 2-seed is Milwaukee which is 231. Wright State, who is the 6-seed is 179 in KenPom.

This tends to produce wild results in their tournament, so let’s go with Wright State who somehow played their final 4 games on the road, finishing 1-3.

Patriot League

The Patriot League begins their conference tournament tomorrow as well with all games on campus sites.

Colgate won the league going away once again, finishing 17-1. They’re 117th in KenPom. Navy who finished tied for 2nd is the only other league member with a sub-200 KenPom number at 176.  All others are 250+.

If we remember, Colgate went 16-2 last year in league and earned a 14-seed and should have beaten Wisconsin in the opener. They’re the easy pick in the Patriot and a potential Cinderella.

Sun Belt

The Sun Belt is ready to start rocking Pensacola tomorrow night with the Fun Belt tournament kicking off. The Sun Belt has a positive AdjustedEM for the overall league, albeit +.022, so it’s not bad.

Southern Miss won the league after being picked by most to finish in the bottom. They’re one of 4 top-100 KenPom teams at 92. 3-seed Marshall is 79, 4-seed James Madison is 95 and 2- seed Louisiana is 95. So, yeah, 12 or 13 seed stuff but definitely capable of beating a 4 or 5.

Worth pointing out, Old Dominion closed out the season with home wins over Southern Miss and Marshall and finished 19-11 overall. KenPom doesn’t love them because of losses to 2 near sub-300 teams near mid-season. 

The pick will be Marshall but this one feels like it’s wide open a d could be lots of fun for junkies.

Monday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Houston(AAC) vs NorfolkMEAC)/MoreheadSt(OVC)
Kansas(B12) vs FDU(NEC)/Grambling(SWAC)
Alabama(SEC) vs TexasA&M-CC(Sland)
UCLA(Pac12) vs UNC-Ashville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Purdue (B1G) vs Vermont(Aeast)
Baylor vs E.Wash(Bsky)
Tennessee vs KenessawSt(Asun)
Kansas St vs YoungSt(Hor)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Texas vs Colgate(Pat)
Arizona vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
Marquette(Beast) vs Toledo(MAC)
Gonzaga vs Furman(SoCon)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Iowa State vs Utah Valley(WAC)
Indiana vs Iona(MAAC)
Connecticut vs Marshall(Sbelt)
Xavier vs Yale(Ivy)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Virginia vs VCU(A10)
San Diego St(Mwest) vs Bradley(Mvalley)
Duke vs Oral Roberts(Summit)
Miami vs Hofstra(CAA)
6 seed vs 11 seed
St. Mary's(WCC) vs West Virginia/Wisconsin
Creighton vs OkieSt/UNC
TCU vs Auburn
Illinois vs USC
7 seed vs 10 seed
Northwestern vs Arkansas
Missouri vs Boise State
Providence vs Nevada
Iowa vs FAU(Cusa)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Maryland vs Rutgers
Kentucky vs Pittsburgh(ACC)
NC State vs Texas A&M
Michigan State vs Memphis
First Four Out
Miss St
Michigan
Arizona St
Charleston
Next Four Out
Penn St
Utah St
New Mexico
Clemson
Also Considered
Oregon
Seton Hall
Virginia Tech
Cincinnati
Wake Forest
Texas Tech
North Texas 

Conference Tournaments - Monday

 Looks like both Kurly and I will be doing conference tournament previews.  Guessing his will be more in depth than mine!

Atlantic Sun - #1 Seed: Kennesaw State

Pick: Liberty

Bracketology to come later....

Weekly Top-10 Overseeded/Underseeded

It’s been a bit of a wild year in college hoops and March may hold more of the same. Let’s look at some teams that are going to be over and underseeded come March

Note: These are based off Friday bracketology and some lines changed over the weekend.

10. Boise State: UNDERSEEDED AT 10: Boise State is 27 in this mornings KenPom and have the nation’s 10th best defense. They have a 15-point win over Texas A&M. Overtime loss to San Jose State wasn’t good last night as they finish with San Diego State and Utah State. They may end up swearing in two weeks but the analytics like them.

9. Texas A&M: UNDERSEEDED AT 8: The Aggies lost yesterday at Mississippi State but remain in second in the SEC. They’re 25th overall in KenPom. On the 8/9 line, they’d be a tough second round opponent for any 1-seed.

8. West Virginia: UNDERSEEDED AT 11: Like Boise State, a loss yesterday puts them on the bubble. Still, at 21st in KenPom, they’re a product of the Big XII meat grinder where someone has to lose. Luckily for them, they get to go to Iowa State and have a home closer against Kansas State. Opportunities await.

7. Maryland: UNDERSEEDED AT 8: Kevin Willard has done a good job year-one at Maryland. They’re 19th in KenPom with the 33rd best offense and 27th best defense. 

6. Kentucky: UNDERSEEDED AT 9: Have the Cats figured things out? Maybe. They pantsed Auburn yesterday and have won 4 straight. The offense is up to 13 in KenPom, though the defense is lagging at 78. They’ll probably move up. A potential nightmare second round matchup for a higher seed.

5. Kansas State: OVERSEEDED AT 2: Feels like those Chris Mack Xavier teams that got overseeded a few times. Earned the seeds but the analytics weren’t as high on them. 18th in KenPom. 57th on offense and 14th in defense.

4. Arkansas: UNDERSEEDED AT 9: The Razorbacks have earned the seeding in what has to be a disappointing season for them. They took Alabama to overtime at Alabama yesterday and have frosh star Nick Smith back. If you have a nickel or two, I’m just saying.

3. Virginia: OVERSEEDED AT 4: They’ll drop back after this weekend but probably not too far. Not a typical Tony Bennett Virginia team. Down to 38th in KenPom with the 75th best offense and 28th best offense. Get Clemson and Louisville at home to end the season, so they could still get a share of the conference title but this team will be ripe for a March upset.

2. UConn: UNDERSEEDED AT 5: An early Big East swoon pushed them down. They’re still 5th in KenPom and you better hope as a 1-seed, sloppy UConn shows up opening weekend. Don’t be surprised if they make a regional final at least. Scariest team coming out of the Big East at the moment.

1. Miami: OVERSEEDED AT 5: Yesterday saw the Canes blow a 54-31 lead because their defense is abysmal. Out of all the teams on this list, their 123 KenPom defense is the worst of any, on either side of the ball. And that lead they blew was at home to a terrible Florida State team. First round fodder possibilities 

Atlantic Sun Tourney

Guess what?  Conference tournament action begins tomorrow as the ASun tips things off.  All games are played on campus sites.

Liberty will be the prohibitive favorite. They won a share the regular season title with Kennesaw State and are 44 in KenPom. Kennesaw State is 130th in KenPom. No word on Kennesaw State pool boys but they did beat Liberty in their only meeting.

Liberty’s Darius McGhee is 10th in KenPom POY. The diminutive guard is a high usage player but wildly efficient. Liberty is also the best defensive rebounding team in the nation.

The pick is Liberty and they’ll be a trendy upset pick in the Big Dance 

Friday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Houston(AAC) vs Howard(MEAC)/MoreheadSt(OVC)
Kansas(B12) vs FDU(NEC)/AlcornSt(SWAC)
Alabama(SEC) vs NWSt(Sland)
Purdue (B1G) vs UNC-Ashville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
UCLA(Pac12) vs Vermont(Aeast)
Texas vs E.Wash(Bsky)
Arizona vs Samford(SoCon)
Kansas St vs YoungSt(Hor)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Baylor vs Colgate(Pat)
Tennessee vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
Marquette(Beast) vs Toledo(MAC)
Gonzaga vs Yale(Ivy)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Iowa State vs Utah Valley(WAC)
Virginia vs Iona(MAAC)
Indiana vs Marshall(Sbelt)
Xavier vs Liberty(Asun)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Miami(ACC) vs VCU(A10)
Connecticut vs Drake(Mvalley
San Diego St(Mwest) vs Oral Roberts(Summit)
St. Mary's(WCC) vs Charleston(Col)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Creighton vs West Virginia/Wisconsin
TCU vs USC/Penn St
Northwesternvs Oklahoma St
Duke vs Auburn
7 seed vs 10 seed
Illinois vs FAU(Cusa)
NC State vs Boise State
Michigan State vs Nevada
Missouri vs Rutgers
8 seed vs 9 seed
Texas A&M vs Pittsburgh
Providence vs Arkansas
Iowa vs Kentucky
Maryland vs Memphis
First Four Out
North Carolina
Miss St
New Mexico
North Texas
Next Four Out
Seton Hall
Clemson
Arizona St
Michigan
Also Considered
Oregon
Utah St
Virginia Tech
Cincinnati
Wake Forest
Texas Tech

Friday Morning Notes

Just as I begin to talk about North Texas as a viable At-Large candidate they go ahead and lose.  Cursed!

The rest of the bubble teams all won yesterday including Michiga, Penn State, USC, and FAU.

A new bracket will be out later today.

Virginia Sucks.

Bubble Watch – Mid Major Edition

 

Charleston vs Towson – Lunardi doesn’t have them as the auto bid and has them out but I’ve mentioned numerous times he’s a hack and if you follow the Bracket Project (http://bracketproject.blogspot.com/) he’s a below average Bracketologist.  In fact he’s ranked 88^th of 148 (http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html).  Of course ESPN sucks so I see why they still employ him.  Anyway, they are my auto-bid but still have at large potential. They are 2-1 in Quad1 and Quad 2 games.

Oral Roberts vs South Dakota – undefeated in conference play I think they can get a bid if they win out until the Semi’s of the conference tournament.  They only have 1 Q1/Q2 win so its close.  Best to continue winning

FAU vs UTSA – This will come as shock but FAU is currently 5-3 in Q1/Q2 games.  That is not only worth a auto-bid, that’s a solid 9/10 seed.  I think I have them under-seeded at 11 right now.

North Texas vs Charlotte – Nobody has the Mean Green on their watch but they are the 2 seed in C-USA behind FAU.  They are right around 50 in all metrics and have a 3-3 record in Q1/Q2 games.  This is a bubble team in my mind.