Elite Eight: Saturday

East: 3. Kansas State vs. 8. Florida Atlantic

When I was younger, I had this formula where I’d pick Final 4 participants based on history of what seed historically came out of regions. The East used to produce the most 1-seeds. Well, suck on that stupid, young Eric.

Kansas State had 5 turnovers against Michigan State. They’re 263rd in the nation in offensive turnover %. For all the talk of Izzo is March, I’d have figured out a way to force a team that turns it over a lot, to you know, turn it over.

Florida Atlantic took advantage of a Rick Barnes team. Whatever the reason is, Barnes coached teams loose in March because the offense breaks bad. I’ll say this, though, FAU is top-30 KenPom defense and offense. I think the committee owes it to teams like FAU more respect. I don’t care what team you are. 28-3 regular season record in a top-10 league deserves way more respect.

Amazing this is the regional final at MSG. Tickets are probably pretty easy to get.  If I was there, I’d buy them because this could be a great game. KenPom likes FAU by 1. Guess it’s FAU 69 Kansas State 68

West: 3. Gonzaga vs. 4. UConn

UConn has come out of the West 3 of the 4 times they’ve won national championships. In 1999, they shattered Cinderella’s shoe. What does that mean? Nothing.

UConn’s demolition of Arkansas was as impressive as anything we’ve seen this tournament. They looked a lot like the Huskies of early season. It’s also a reminder to probably not overreact to a bad stretch of a season. If a team has a great, sustained stretch, barring injury, that’s what that team is capable of.

As for the Zags, I’d rather focus on Mick Cronin. At one point in the first half last night, Dan Bonner noticed Cronin telling his team to slow down as they were running all over the hapless Zag defense. That was the point I knew Gonzaga could win should they keep UCLA within distance in the first half. UCLA needed to bury Gonzaga like UConn buried Arkansas. Instead, Cronin was so concerned with playing within his system, he almost certainly lost the opportunity. His near future at UCLA with the guys he’s losing becomes interesting.

The Zags defense last night gets buried by UConn. Saturday is a new day, however. They also dropped 33 in the first half against a good UCLA defense which would be pretty damn good had they not given up 46. The 46 they scored in the 2nd half is even more impressive. The nation’s number 1 offense needs to do that again. It should be a thriller. I like UConn 80 Gonzaga 78