Sweet 16: The South

Good job, Arizona, Virginia, Missouri & Baylor.

1. Alabama vs. 5. San Diego State

Good to see SDSU make a Sweet 16. We forget how good they were in 2020. They’re also real good this year. While Alabama is 2 in KenPom, SDSU is 14. They’re a legit Sweet 16 team. Can they win?

There’s a path to victory. They have the 4th best 3-point defense in the nation. Teams only shoot 28.7% from deep. Bama loves shooting the 3. They’re 8th in attempts in 3PA/FGA. While they shoot a lot, they’re middle of the road in overall 3-point shooting %. It’ll be imperative the Aztecs keep the Tide off the offensive glass. SDSU is 54th in defensive rebounding %. That’s strong.

The concern for the Aztecs is the offense is prone to rock fighting. 70th in KenPom, they’re taking on the nation’s 3rd best defense. Teams don’t shoot well typically against Alabama as evidenced by the fact they’re 3rd in 3pt fg% and 1st in 2pt fg% defense. Yeah, that’s a red flag for me for San Diego State.

San Diego State will need to muck it up but I think Alabama is too powerful for them and the offensive droughts SDSU have has me at Alabama 71 San Diego State 58

6. Creighton vs. 15. Princeton 

So, Princeton was certainly underseeded by the committee. The Ivy is 12th in KenPom conference rankings with a positive Adjusted EM, granted, small at +1.00. Losses to Delaware and Dartmouth crushed their net numbers. Still, let this be a lesson. An Ivy as a 15 should send off alarm bells in the future.

As for the game itself, Creighton is a heavy metrics favorite. Despite a wonky Big East season, they’re 12th in KenPom with the 23rd best offense and 13th best defense. Those are borderline national championship numbers and certainly Final Four good.

I’m trying to find something for Princeton that says they can win this game and all I got is, they just beat Arizona and Missouri, throw the numbers out. That said, I think Creighton is better than those two teams. One thing to keep in the back of your mind is, rumors are heavily circulating Gregg McDermott could be the next guy at Notre Dame. The team and him will have to answer those questions. Still, I’ll take Creighton 75 Princeton 60