Weekly Top-10 Overseeded/Underseeded

It’s been a bit of a wild year in college hoops and March may hold more of the same. Let’s look at some teams that are going to be over and underseeded come March

Note: These are based off Friday bracketology and some lines changed over the weekend.

10. Boise State: UNDERSEEDED AT 10: Boise State is 27 in this mornings KenPom and have the nation’s 10th best defense. They have a 15-point win over Texas A&M. Overtime loss to San Jose State wasn’t good last night as they finish with San Diego State and Utah State. They may end up swearing in two weeks but the analytics like them.

9. Texas A&M: UNDERSEEDED AT 8: The Aggies lost yesterday at Mississippi State but remain in second in the SEC. They’re 25th overall in KenPom. On the 8/9 line, they’d be a tough second round opponent for any 1-seed.

8. West Virginia: UNDERSEEDED AT 11: Like Boise State, a loss yesterday puts them on the bubble. Still, at 21st in KenPom, they’re a product of the Big XII meat grinder where someone has to lose. Luckily for them, they get to go to Iowa State and have a home closer against Kansas State. Opportunities await.

7. Maryland: UNDERSEEDED AT 8: Kevin Willard has done a good job year-one at Maryland. They’re 19th in KenPom with the 33rd best offense and 27th best defense. 

6. Kentucky: UNDERSEEDED AT 9: Have the Cats figured things out? Maybe. They pantsed Auburn yesterday and have won 4 straight. The offense is up to 13 in KenPom, though the defense is lagging at 78. They’ll probably move up. A potential nightmare second round matchup for a higher seed.

5. Kansas State: OVERSEEDED AT 2: Feels like those Chris Mack Xavier teams that got overseeded a few times. Earned the seeds but the analytics weren’t as high on them. 18th in KenPom. 57th on offense and 14th in defense.

4. Arkansas: UNDERSEEDED AT 9: The Razorbacks have earned the seeding in what has to be a disappointing season for them. They took Alabama to overtime at Alabama yesterday and have frosh star Nick Smith back. If you have a nickel or two, I’m just saying.

3. Virginia: OVERSEEDED AT 4: They’ll drop back after this weekend but probably not too far. Not a typical Tony Bennett Virginia team. Down to 38th in KenPom with the 75th best offense and 28th best offense. Get Clemson and Louisville at home to end the season, so they could still get a share of the conference title but this team will be ripe for a March upset.

2. UConn: UNDERSEEDED AT 5: An early Big East swoon pushed them down. They’re still 5th in KenPom and you better hope as a 1-seed, sloppy UConn shows up opening weekend. Don’t be surprised if they make a regional final at least. Scariest team coming out of the Big East at the moment.

1. Miami: OVERSEEDED AT 5: Yesterday saw the Canes blow a 54-31 lead because their defense is abysmal. Out of all the teams on this list, their 123 KenPom defense is the worst of any, on either side of the ball. And that lead they blew was at home to a terrible Florida State team. First round fodder possibilities