Sweet 16: The West

The main event Thursday is out west. Even with the 1-seed at home, Arkansas has multiple NBA players. Whoever wins this region will have earned it.

4. UConn vs. 8. Arkansas

Arkansas is 19th in KenPom at the moment and a 6-point KenPom dog. UConn has all the earmarks of a national title contender despite a 4th place Big East finish.

Arkansas has a bad offense. They don’t shoot the 3 well at all and are 131st in effective fg%. They’re 23rd in getting to the line but 268th in FT%, so it’s a wash. UConn’s effective defensive fg% is 11th in the nation but they foul a it. They’re 319th in defensive FTA/FGA. The Hogs are going to get those FTs. If they shoot above average, there’s a chance to make hay.

On the offensive end for UConn, they’re 3rd in KenPom with the 53rd best effective FG% and 2nd in offensive rebounding %. Arkansas is slightly above average defensive rebounding team but not great. UConn should get extra possessions. 

Before the tourney, UConn had won 8 of 10 in the regular season and their loss in the BE Tournament was a tossup against Marquette. The Hogs lost 5 of 7, split in Nashville and beat Kansas without Bill Self. Give me UConn 70 Arkansas 64

2. UCLA vs. 3. Gonzaga

UCLA has the numbers of a possible champ but injury issues are mounting. Mick won’t let them run and the offense which I think could be more dynamic has enough stretches that even a weak defensive team like Gonzaga can do enough to win.

UCLA is 21st in KenPom offense. They limit turnovers and get to the glass but are 144th in effective FG%. The Zags don’t force a lot of turns but clean the defensive glass. The concern is their defensive effective fg% which is 245th in the nation. That’s hard to look past.

It’s hard to look past until you get to the offense which is the best in America because they don’t turn it over, 12th in turnover % and have the nation’s best offensive effective fg% at 58.3. To top it off, they’re above average in offensive rebounding and getting to the line. Just to add to the pile, they’re 2nd in 2pt fg% and 10th in 3pt fg%.

Of course, UCLA is 2nd in defensive effective fg%. UCLA does everything well on defense except maybe rebound and even that shouldn’t be a concern. What gives in the rubber match between these West Coast powers? I can’t get past the Zags defensive deficiency and think UCLA has enough in the tank to get this one but if they see guys fall out due to injury during the game, all bets are off but as is? Give me UCLA 72 Gonzaga 71 in another classic