Sweet 16: The East

Back in the real world this week after an opening weekend that began with so much promise and then crashed in spectacular fashion. Let’s make some picks.

7. Michigan State vs. 3. Kansas State

Let’s get the disclaimer out of the way, Michigan State is gross. Tom Izzo is gross. The deification of college coaches is gross. This game is gross.

KenPom calls this a tossup and it is. Neither is separated by much according to fancy stats but this should send alarm bells off. KState is 285th in offensive turnover % and 241st in defensive rebounding %. Sparty isn’t great at forcing turnovers or offensive rebounding but if you have to pick which team wins this battle, it’s usually Michigan State.

Michigan State has been prone to real dumb basketball at times this year and Izzo’s stubbornness almost cost him yesterday when he auto benched Hoggard for the final 8 minutes of the first half. Also, despite the Izzo is March stuff, his team also lost to a bad Ohio State team in the Big Ten quarters. 

If K-State controls turnovers, they can win.  If they turn it over a lot like they have throughout the course of the season, they lose. Markquis Nowell does have the look of a guy trying to become a legend. Well, this is your chance against one of the last big name teams left. It’s a tossup but those turnover numbers sway me to Michigan State 62 Kansas State 58

4. Tennessee vs. 9. Florida Atlantic

I have some thoughts on Tennessee’s approach this past Saturday. It was obvious they were going to play bully ball against Duke and it worked. I’m not sure it can work against a team playing with house money, however.

There is no questioning the Vols defense. It’s the best in the land. The offense, though, has dropped to 60 in KenPom. That’s not a legit title contender. Zak Zeigler’s injury seemed like a death blow but maybe a few games without him have forced them to embrace the defensive side and damn the torpedoes. It also helps having Santiago Vescovi play like an All-American, too.

FAU is solid and shoots the 3-well. Tennessee has the nation’s best 3-point defense. I think FAU has to be hot early and force Tennessee to make buckets. If the Vols defense is suffocating the Owls, they win pretty easily, albeit maybe not as aesthetically pretty. If FAU comes out blazing, things get interesting. My guess is, they don’t and that sways me to Tennessee 61 FAU 53