Sweet 16: The Midwest

Thank you, Midwest region.

1. Houston vs. 5. Miami

Kelvin Sampson has done impressive work at Houston. Same with Jim Larranaga at Miami. Houston is a heavy 8-point Ken Pom favorite. Having the 8th best offense and 4th best defense will do that. Doesn’t hurt that Miami’s 108th ranked defense is a problem for the Hurricanes.

Miami’s offense on the other hand, is the 11th best KenPom offense. They’re not a fast-paced team, so Houston’s methodical style won’t bother them greatly. Miami has the nation’s 23rd best effective fg%. They shoot the ball well from 2 and 3, 35th and 39th respectively in the nation. However, Houston has the nation’s 2nd best defensive effective fg%.

Houston’s offense is efficient, but hardly dynamic. 71st I’m effective fg% is fine, 165th in 3pt% is ok. What sets them apart is their offensive rebounding % which is 4th best on the nation at 37%. They extend possessions to make up for what they may lack in explosiveness. While Miami is also a good offensive rebounding team, they’re just average on the defensive glass. 

Miami has good guards and that’ll help neutralize Houston to an extent but the difference is Jarace Walker for the Cougars. Houston 63 Miami 58

2. Texas vs 3. Xavier 

Xavier is back in the Sweet 16, as is Sean Miller. Rodney Terry has done a great job getting Texas here as well despite a turbulent December. This could be one of the better games of the Sweet 16.

Texas still profiles as a national title contender. They’re 15th and 10th in KenPom offense and defense respectively. They’re 5th overall. X is 15th overall but a 64th rated defense is the red flag in this game.

Xavier has two defensive deficiencies. They don’t force turnovers and teams shoot the 3 ball well against them. Texas isn’t a great 3-point shooting team, however, and they don’t turn it over much. 

On the defensive side of things, Texas force a lot of turnovers and has the nation’s 57th best defensive effective fg%. They do not rebound well, 219th on defensive boards and they put teams on the line. They’re 240th in FTA/FGA. X doesn’t necessarily do those things great on offense but they do them well enough. They’re also the 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the nation.

I had Texas in the Final 4 but I sort of like X here. Xavier 81 Texas 78