Final 4: The Picks

Baylor vs. Houston - It’s easy for us to forget what a great basketball history Houston has. This is their 6th Final 4. Remarkably, every time they’ve made an Elite 8, they’ve made the Final 4, albeit today’s Elite 8 is much different than 1968. Despite that history, they do not have a national title to their name. Phi Slamma Jamma made 3 trips in a row to the Final 4, losing the title games in 1983 & 1984. Prior to the arrival of Kelvin Sampson, Houston had been to only 4 NCAA Tournaments since losing the title game to Georgetown in 1984. Prior to winning in the opening round in 2018, their last tournament win was in the Final 4 in 1984 over Virginia, 49-47. Never change, Cavs.

Baylor basketball made two Final 4’s prior to this season. They were in 1948 and 1950. Before Scott Drew arrived, they had one NCAA appearance in total since that Final 4 in 1950. That was in 1988. They didn’t make it back to the dance until 2008. In a world of what have you done for me lately, Drew was hired in 2003. That means it took 5 years to make the tourney (We all know the mess he inherited) and has had seasons where he missed the tournament since, as recent as 2018. Baylor has made a lot of bad choices the last decade, keeping Scott Drew around is not one of them.

As for the game, Houston has done enough to win twice in games over Rutgers and Oregon State. They handled Syracuse with realtive ease as well in a matchup that favored them greatly. KenPom views this as a tossup as Baylor is 2 and Houston is 3. Baylor has a much better offense despite Houston being 7th in AdjuestedO (118.6) vs. Baylor who is 3 (123.0). Houston has the edge on defense, 8th overall (88.4) vs. Baylor, 28th overall (92.2). Basically, it’s a wash.

These are the 2nd and 3rd best offensive rebounding teams in the nation. Baylor is the nations top 3-point shooting team. Houston is 11th best in 3-pt fg% defense. Houston doesn’t turn it over much, Baylor forces a ton of turnovers. Baylor has the nations 7th best effective offensive fg%, Houston has the nations best effective defensive fg%. It’s a classic matchup of strength versus strength.

I’ll always lean towards the team with a better offense and in this case, I’ll do the same because Baylor’s 3-pt shooting is better than Houston’s and I think that’s the difference. Both teams will have extra possessions because of their offensive rebounding. Baylor should get more makes and if it’s a close game, I think that matters. Something else to watch, Baylor doesn’t typically shoot a lot of FTs but Houston fouls a lot. In a close game, it could matter.

The Pick: Baylor 70 Houston 68

UCLA vs. Gonzaga - Sigh. A Michigan-Gonzaga game could have been interesting. It’s possible this game could be, too. Gonzaga averages almost 10 more possessions per game than UCLA. UCLA does shoot it well enough from distance that if they get the Zags into a low possession slog, they may outscore them from distance.

However, USC was a much better defensive team than UCLA is and the Zags barely broke a sweat in what was one of the most, if not most impressive performance by a singular team this tournament. I said this about the Michigan-UCLA game, the Bruins are playing with house money and are 13.5 underdogs in this game. Hell, KenPom likes the Zags by 12 with an 86% win probability in a Final 4 game! The UCLA freaking Bruins are David to Gonzaga’s Goliath and it’s barely hyperbole.

UCLA has no pressure while the Zags chase perfection. I don’t dismiss that, especially in a game the Bruins will try and make ugly. Despite this warning, I think this Zags team eventually blows them out as Michigan could have and maybe should have done to UCLA. The difference between Gonzaga and Michigan is pretty staggering by the numbers.

The Pick: Gonzaga 80 UCLA 69

Tuesday Picks

Michigan vs. UCLA - Michigan waxed Florida State and UCLA dominated Alabama in overtime to advance to this game. UCLA got some help from Alabama shooting 11-25 from the FT line. This matchup for UCLA will be similar to what they had against Alabama. Michigan isn’t as 3-point reliant as Alabama and much more efficient overall. UCLA is playing with house money and those teams are always scary but Michigan is more balanced than Alabama and have figured things out without Livers.

The Pick: Michigan 71 UCLA 59

Gonzaga vs. USC - This is the best Elite 8 matchup. It’s also the toughest opponent for all the favorites. USC is up to 6th in KenPom. Gonzaga has the best 2pt offense in basketball, USC has the best 2pt defense in basketball. I keep hearing how size is the x-factor against the Zags and it’s possible it shows itself today but I think we really dismiss Zags complete package. They don’t shoot a lot of 3’s but they’re 29th in 3pt shooting %. USC will test them and maybe even win but I think Gonzaga shows us why they’re special in this game.

The Pick: Gonzaga 77 USC 72

Monday Picks

Baylor vs. Arkansas - A throwback to the old SWC, Arkansas is in its first Elite 8 since making the title game in 1995. This is Baylor’s 3rd since 2010. Baylor’s win over Villanova was impressive as the Wildcats threw the kitchen sink at them and the Bears didn’t blink. Arkansas was behind almost the entire night against Oral Roberts but finally wore them down. Arkansas has been down double digits in all 3 tournament games. They can’t afford that against Baylor. 

The Pick: Baylor 71 Arkansas 62

Oregon State vs. Houston- The Cougs make it 3 old SWC teams in the Elite 8. The Beavers looked good against Loyola but Houston was more impressive against Syracuse. The numbers say this is a mismatch and I tend to agree.

The Pick: Houston 66 Oregon State 51

The South Shall Rise Again

Villanova vs. Baylor - What could have been...Baylor is favored by 7.5 in Vegas while KenPom is less bullish, having them over by 4. 

The Wildcats are with out Colin Gillespie as we know. For the season, no one turned the ball over less than Villanova. Only 2 teams in the nation forced more turnovers than Baylor. The Gilllespie injury catches up to the Wildcats Saturday. To their credit, none of the Nova regulars turn the ball over but Chris Arcidiacano does and if he plays a lot Saturday, that could be a problem.

While we marvel at Villanova from distance, Baylor actually lead the nation in 3pt %. Nova was 237th in 3pt % defense. Couple that with a bad defensive effective fg% and this is simply a bad matchup for Villanova across the board.

We’ve seen Villanova shoot teams out of gyms but I think this will go the other way this weekend. Baylor isn’t great defensively but they’re much better than Villanova and the Bears offense is slightly better than Villanova and that’s impressive unto itself.

The Pick: Baylor 82 Villanova 72

Oral Roberts vs. Arkansas - KenPom gives Arkansas an 89% chance of winning this game with a predicted score of 86-72. They actually played earlier this year with Arkansas only winning by 11.

The Razorbacks have won 11 of 12 heading into this game and are a clear step above and defense Oral Bob has played. Arkansas isn’t anything special on offense but also don’t have any glaring warts you thing Oral Bob might exploit. Both teams play fast, averaging around 72 possessions per game, so there isn’t an advantage there. 

The key will be can Oral Roberts make 3’s? They’re 14th in 3pt % and 18th in attempts per FGA. They’ll put shots up and that gives them a punchers chance. While the Razorbacks are 10th in AdjustedD, they’re average in 3pt defense. I can see the Golden Eagles putting a scare into Arkansas but the Razorbacks should win.

The Pick: Arkansas 84 Oral Roberts 70

Midwest

Loyola Chicago vs. Oregon State - Vegas like the Ramblers by 6.5 and KenPom does by 7. Loyola is 9th in KenPom with the nations best defense and Oregon State is 49th overall.

That Rambler defense does everything well. 45th in effective defensive FG% and turnover % coupled with the 2nd best defensive rebounding % and 2nd least fouling team, they make you earn it. Add a slow tempo and you better be crisp on offense. The Beavers are 41st on AdjustedO but don’t have anything in particular they hang their hats on. 216th in effective fg% is a scary number.

OSU isn’t particularly stout on defense as well, 68th in AdjustedD. The effective fg% is ok but they don’t turn teams over, give up offensive rebounds and foul a lot. The Beavs are 238 in 2pt% defense, Loyola is 4th in 2pt% offense. The Rambler offense isn’t as good as their defense (35th in Adjusted O) but it has a lot going for it versus OSU. I think Loyola is a clear favorite for a reason.

The Pick: Loyola 69 Oregon State 58

Houston vs. Syracuse- The spread favors Houston by 7 and KenPom likes them by 8. The Cougs have looked sluggish at times over the last few weeks, though, and Syracuse is a pain in the ass. That said, Houston is 4th in KenPom and 7th in AdjustedO and 11th in AdjustedD. That’s the title contender formula.

On offense, the Cougars have an offensive rebounding % of 39.9%, 2nd best. The effective fg% is ok and they hoist a lot of 3’s (42% 3PA/FGA, 56th highest). They aren’t a great shooting team, though. If you’re looking for a reason Houston wins, well, Syracuse is awful in defensive rebounding % (zone and all), 340th overall and give up a lot of 3-pt attempts (44% 3PA/FGA). There’s a chance Houston blows them out. Syracuse is 86th overall in AdjustedD.

They’re better offensively at 17 but don’t do anything particularly well other than protect the ball. They shoot well enough from 3 that it should concern Houston. Houston does have the best defensive effective fg% in America and teams make less than 30% from 3 against them. They do foul a lot but force a lot of turnovers. The Orange haven’t gotten to the line much this year, though. 

I just don’t see a scenario where Syracuse wins without a real stinker from Houston. It’s certainly possible but Houston is clearly better and this matchup should strongly favor them.

The Pick: Houston 80 Syracuse 64

Sweet 16: Eastbound and Down

Michigan vs. Florida State - The Wolverines are still favored by 3 according to Vegas andKenPom likes them by 4. They handled an aggressive LSU team but the Noles are a much better defensive team. 

FSU is 29th in defense while LSU was around 110. The Noles are 21st in effective fg% defense but don’t force many turnovers and foul a lot. They also give up a lot of 2nd chance points. They’re 296th on defensive rebounding. Michigan doesn’t crash the offensive glass typically, however, they’re a dangerous team to give second looks to. They make 38.5% from 3, 11th in the nation. FSU is 272nd in 3PA/FGA. That is a morsel worth noting.

FSU is no slouch making 3’s themselves. They’re making 38%, close to what Michigan makes and they have an offensive rebounding % of 34.8%, 18th in the nation. Their weakness on defense matches their strength on offense. Michigan is a much better defensive rebounding team than FSU and are 30th in the nation in 3PA/FGA. 

Without Livers, FSU is a trendy pick in this region and game. The numbers really show me this isn’t a bad matchup for Michigan, though. I’m much more bullish on them than I would have been without looking at the numbers

The Pick: Michigan 77 Florida State 75

Alabama vs. UCLA - This is a contrast in styles. Bama is the 12th fastest team in the nation. UCLA is 337th. Almost 47% of Alabama’s shots are 3’s versus UCLA whose shots are 31% 3’s, 301st in the country. Vegas has the Tide favored by 6.5 and KenPom likes them by 4.

UCLA may play slow but it’s an efficient offense. 79th in effective fg%, 80th in offensive rebounding %, 28th in 3-point shooting % and protect the ball. Bama is 17th in effective fg% defense and teams only shoot 29% from 3 against them. That’s 9th best in the nation. They are a bad defensive rebounding team, though. They’re 218th in defensive rebounding %. They can force turnovers. What gives here? Can UCLA make baskets, can Bama prevent second chances?

On defense, the Bruins are far worse. They protect the glass but don’t force turnovers. They’re just below average in defensive effective fg%. Bama isn’t a great offense but are capable of blowing teams out. They crash the boards and as we’ve noted, for a team that shoots a lot of 3’s, second chances are something UCLA can’t allow. 

There’s a path here for the Bruins. If they can get Bama to slog it out with them and limit possessions and second chances, you could see UCLA frustrate the Tide. I think Bama’s defense, though, can handle a low possesssion game if it comes to that and make it a slog for UCLA as well. This is a fascinating game.

The Pick: Alabama 62 UCLA 58

Sweet 16: Heading West

Creighton vs. Gonzaga - Fun fact, in my mock tourney last year, I had the Zags knocking out Creighton in the Elite 8. What does that mean? Absolutely nothing. The Zags are 12 point favorites, with an 86% win chance per KenPom. Vegas is +13. 

How does Creighton win? I don’t know. The Zags do everything really well. If Creighton can have one of those Creighton nights of can’t miss, then I suppose they have a chance but I don’t see it. Creighton plays much slower but they don’t play slow enough or have enough size to cause mismatches. 

The Pick: Gonzaga 81 Creighton 66

Oregon vs. USC - Pac-12 on Pac-12 crime. Both looked very impressive in the second round. USC is favored by a bucket and a half and KenPom likes them by 4. They’ve also entered the stratosphere of teams that profile as national title winners. They’re up to 15th in AdjustedO and 5th in AdjustedD.

The Ducks defense is the weak link, 52nd in KenPom of this matchup. They’re just about average on defensive effective fg%. That hurts them because they don’t foul and force a decent amount of turnovers. On offense, they’re 25th in effective fg% and shoot 38% from 3, 12th best.

The Trojans counter defensively with the nations 7th best defensive effective fg% with their strength being in paint protection. They’re an average team guarding the 3-point line, so the Ducks have to hit 3’s to win. The Trojans are an efficient offense that crashes the offensive glass. They’re 12th in offensive rebounding. Oregon needs to be vigilant on defensive rebounding.

I think too much has to go right for Oregon in this game to win it but there’s definitely a path.

The Pick: USC 70 Oregon 63

Misery in the Big 14: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

For most of the year, the Big 14 puffed their chests out. Until late, they claimed the best conference in the KenPom era. Alas, the 2004 ACC still holds that rank but it was an incredible year for the Big 14. They entered the tournament with 6 top 20 KenPom teams and 8 of the top 40. It was an incredible year. They earned two 1-seeds and two 2-seeds. There was nothing fluky or undeserved about it. Then the tournament started and the bottom fell out. Here is the good, bad and ugly.

The Good

Michigan- When they lost Isaiah Livers, it became trendy to pick LSU to beat them. While his loss is a big one, they are a pretty deep team. FSU will be a big challenge but I wouldn’t count them out. A 4th straight Sweet 16 and surviving some haymakers from LSU and the fan base has to be pretty thrilled.

Rutgers- Rutgers?!? Yes, Rutgers. Based on KenPom, they were slight favorites over Clemson but they hadn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1991. They probably should have beaten Houston but that shouldn’t diminish from the turnaround orchestrated by Steve Pikiell. Plus, his name hasn’t been mentioned for any other jobs. This shouldn’t be a one-off.

The Bad

Wisconsin - Remember the pre-season polls that had them in the top ten and the excitement over having almost all of their minutes from last year back? Remember the talk of expereince? Good. Because you’ll hear that in 3-4 years again and those kids aren’t as highly regarded as this group was.

Illinois - The Illini avoid the ugly because Loyola was so much better than an 8-seed. They also had to deal with the fact Loyola was going to be amped to beat the big(ger) brother. Illinois had a knack for playing “down” or sloppy. This was how it was going to end for them at some point. Illini fans may think better days await but this was a legit title contender that melted away in dispiriting fashion.

Michigan State - Izzo is March or something. They were soft, undisciplined and often uninspiring. He may not admit it, but I bet this was one of Izzo’s least favorite squads.

Maryland - Hey, they surprised me and beat UConn, so good? Well, they got blown off the court by Alabama and Mark Turgeon said, “what did you expect?”. I bet Terps fans expected a lot more when he replaced a coach who won a national championship.

The Ugly

Ohio State - Oral Roberts may be in the Sweet 16 but that doesn’t excuse the Buckeyes losing to them as a 2-seed. Ohio State was always a suspect team in our book, but losing to the 5th place team from the Summit League in the opening round? That’s ugly.

Purdue - The Boilermakers quietly had an excellent year and were staring at a potential Sweet 16 with a leaky Villanova team or maybe even Winthrop awaiting in round two. Instead, they laid an egg against North Texas who Villanova ran off the floor two nights later. And the game was in their home state. That’s ugly.

Iowa - Thw Hawkeyes made the Sweet 16 4 times in the 80’s. They have made it that far 1 time since. That was in 1999. They’re o-fer the millennium. As a 2-seed, a 7 or 10 can be problematic but Oregon entered the dance 36th in KenPom, not exactly an over seeded 7. Plus, giving up 56 in one half and 95 overall is pretty ugly. 

Re-Seeding: SOUTH

1. Baylor (4)

2. Ohio State (7)

3. Wisconsin (10)

4. Villanova (12)

5. Purdue (13)

6. Arkansas (18)

7. Texas Tech (23)

8. UNC (28)

9. Florida (37)

10. Utah State (40)

11. Virginia Tech (50)

This is the deepest and best overall region. Wisconsin is definitely seeded where they should be based on results. Their best win is Loyola and probably Maryland or Rutgers. They’ve lived high off the hog from trouncing Louisville and starting the year high in KenPom. They were originally 7th and got as high as 3 after the Louisville win. The key for them has been double digit wins over the lessers of the Big 14. What does it mean? They beat up teams they should but haven’t figured out how to win games against top teams. They’re favorites over UNC and should win but after that, thanks for playing and send Brad Davison back to Minnesota, eh?

Villanova gets a tough matchup against Winthrop. Pat Kelsey’s team plays fast and Nova was already sketchy on defense before Collin Gillespie got hurt. KenPom loves Nova in this game and it’s a trendy pick, so that gives me cause for pause. Purdue has quietly gone about their business this year but I won’t be surprised if North Texas makes that game interesting.

Utah State-Texas Tech might be a rock fight. Both teams can defend. I don’t think I’d pick Utah State but if this things stays in the 50’s, it’ll be a coin flip. I would like to see TTU-Arkansas in round two, though.

Florida-Virginia Tech is arguably the worst 7-10 game I can recall. Whoever wins that game won’t scare Ohio State. 

Baylor is still the clear favorite here. They’re +4 in AdjEM over Ohio State. The Buckeyes are closer to Wisconsin and roughly the same difference the other way from Texas Tech. I think this region could be a potential chaos region, but I really like Baylor and after doing 4 of these, I’m going Baylor and Gonzaga. I think it’s Houston or Illinois and I’ll ride with Houston because Illinois will be a very trendy pick and one of UConn or FSU out East. It’s Michigan if they figure out life without Livers but that’s almost too big a loss.

Re-Seeding: WEST

1. Gonzaga (1)

2. Iowa (5)

3. Virginia (11)

4. USC (14)

5. Creighton (19)

6. Kansas (22)

7. Oregon (36)

8. Oklahoma (39)

9. VCU (45)

10. Missouri (51)

This is the worst bracket. The Midwest is the messiest by seeding but this is quite clearly the worst bracket. Seeding isn’t terribly out of whack. Kansas is too high and will be without Jalen Wilson, so USC making the second weekend won’t surprise me.

If Gonzaga doesn’t win this region, it’s one of the great disappointments in the Mark Few era. It’s not that Iowa or Virginia couldn’t beat them in a one off, they can, it just seems this is as good a setup as the Zags could hope for.

Virginia is favored sizably over Ohio but will be coming off Covid protocols and Ohio has steamrolled some teams despite some starts and stops throughout the year. It may not mean much now, but they did only lose by 2 to Illinois early in the year.

Creighton has gone 3-3 in their last 6 games and UCSB is 69th in KenPom. The Jays are the favorites for sure but this bracket is begging you to pick both the 4 and 5 to lose. UCSB head coach Joe Pasternack should be a hot name in the coaching cycle anyway, but this would accelerate that. It’s possible both Arizona jobs open, too. 

One final note, I’m not sure how it stacks up historically, but this is the worst 8-9 game of all 4 brackets. Looks good in name but it’s a woofer.

Re-Seeding: MIDWEST

1. Illinois (3)

2. Houston (6)

3. Loyola (9)

4. San Diego State (20)

5. Tennessee (21)

6. West Virginia (27)

7. Oklahoma State (30)

8. Georgia Tech (32)

9. Rutgers (34)

10. Syracuse (41)

11. Clemson (42)

This region is a mess. The top 2 seeds are the clear favorites and are 2 teams that profile as potential national champions. Loyola got the 8-seed and are 9th in KenPom. They are woefully under seeded in this regard but as we know, while the committee claims they use analytics, I think that’s only partly true. Loyola is where they probably should be. The difference between them and Illinois is roughly 7 in AdjEM. It’s roughly the same between them and Syracuse the other way. Instead of potentially getting Syracuse in either the first or second round, though, they get Georgia Tech and them potentially Illinois. That’s tough for the 9th best KenPom team but such is the life of a true mid-major.

As we noted in the East, West Virginia is too high as a 3-seed. It sickens me to say, but there’s a path to the Sweet 16 for Syracuse who loves to prove the committee right. That said, it does also open up a legit chance for San Diego State to do the same as a 6.

Oklahoma State got a lot of love as a team that should have gotten a better seed and they did just beat Baylor but they are over seeded at 4. They should handle Liberty but would be underdogs to Tennessee and everyone else on that side of the bracket save Georgia Tech and Oregon State. They have a very good team and the best player in Cade Cunningham and that could be the difference but I’d take a great pause anointing them as a sleeper in this region.

It’ll be an upset in my mind if we don’t get Houston and Illinois in the regional final. Seeing a 6-seed get to the Sweet 16 seems like the likely “upset” in this region. Rutgers would be favored over Clemson but 10-7 isn’t a big upset.

Morehead State will probably get some upset picks but they got blown out by Ohio State, Richmond, Kentucky and Clemson during the regular season. This region feels pretty chalky.

Re-seeding: EAST REGION

Isn’t it nice to have the tournament back? Unless you’re in Louisville, Lexington, Durham or Milwaukee. Anyway, it’s time to re-seed the regions by KenPom. We’ve got some interesting things in this mix this year. Let’s start with the East

1. Michigan (2)

2. Alabama (8)

3. Florida State (15)

4. UConn (16)

5. Colorado (17)

6. BYU (24)

7. St. Bonaventure (25)

8. Texas (26)

9. LSU (29)

10. Maryland (31)

My first reaction to this bracket was it was the weakest but that isn’t correct. Only 2 top-10 teams but 10 top-30 teams give it depth. We do have some anomalies to discuss.

The 3-seeds across the board are over seeded based on KenPom. Texas drops to an 8 here. The Longhorns swept one of the weaker Kansas teams of recent memory and missed them at the Big XII tourney due to Covid. Their next best win is over North Carolina and that’s not a great win in 2021. Outside a rout of KU on January 2nd, they haven’t beaten a Top-100 KenPom team by double digits. Wins are wins but they have a bit of luck on their side.

UConn moves up the most in this exercise and happen to be on the same side of the bracket as Texas. They were without future NBA first rounder James Bouknight for awhile as well. UConn sneaking into an Elite 8 shouldn’t shock anyone given the side of the bracket they’re on.

LSU will be a trendy pick over Michigan in the second round and there isn’t much doubt LSU is a good squad but they’re 125th in defensive efficiency and their best two wins are over Arkansas. Michigan is banged up but if you fell in love with LSU over the weekend, take a deep breath and look closer.

I had mentioned Colorado might be worth a flier but they were pretty average away from home and there was a recent article by someone on altitude teams having an advantage at home that is discernible enough that it may inflate how good they are. I’d link it but just take my word for it.

As for potential upsets, I’m sure the Izzo is March crowd will like them over BYU should they beat UCLA but they’re 56th in KenPom which is behind Georgetown. I don’t think Abilene Christian will beat Texas but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Longhorns are uncomfortable for about 39 minutes. I think the 4’s and 5’s are safe in this region. As much as I love Iona, Alabama is too much for them and I watched bits of the MAAC final. The Gaels aren’t very good 

Final Bracket

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)/Hartford(Aeast)

Michigan vs Tex. Southern (SWAC)/Oral Roberts (Sumit)

Baylor vs Mt. St. Mary's (NEC)

Illinois (B1G) vs App St (Sbelt)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Alabama (SEC) vs Iona (MAAC)

Houston (AAC) vs Cleveland St (Hor)

Ohio State vs Drexel (CAA)

Iowa vs Grand Canyon (WAC)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Arkansas vs Abline Christian (Sland)

Texas (B12) vs E.Washington (Bsky)

Oklahoma St vs Morehead St (OVC)

Kansas vs Colgate (Pat)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Florida St vs UNCG (SoCon)

Purdue vs Liberty (Asun)

West Virginia vs Ohio (MAC)

Virginia vs North Texas (Cusa)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Villanova vs Winthrop (Bsouth)

Colorado vs UCSB (Bwest)

Creighton vs Oregon St (P12)

Tennessee vs Georgetown (Beast)

6 seed vs 11 seed

Texas Tech vs UCLA/Utah State

San Diego St (Mwest) vs VCU/Drake

USC vs Syracuse

LSU vs Louisville

7 seed vs 10 seed

Missouri vs Maryland

BYU vs Michigan State

Wisconsin vs St. Bonaventure (A10)

Connecticut vs Virginia Tech

8 seed vs 9 seed

Oklahoma vs Georgia Tech (ACC)

Oregon vs Florida

Clemson vs Loyola (Mvalley)

North Carolina vs Rutgers

First Four Out

Colorado State

Wichita St

W. Kentucky

Seton Hall

Next Four Out

Bosie State

St. Louis 

Xavier

Memphis

Also Considered

St. John's

Mississippi

Dukeppi
Duke

Last At-Large Bids

 In my mind there are two spots for 4 teams.  Those teams in no order:

Utah State - solid NET, KenPom, and BPI.  7 Q1 games but 2-5

Colorado State - NET and KP are in the 50-60. 2-4 in Q1.  Leaning out now

Drake - injuries hurt. only 1-2 in Q1 but 5-0 in Q2.  Strange resume

Wichita State - had them solidly out with NET and KP around 70.  However,  NCOS is 41 and went 2-3 in Q1.

Almost Final Bracket....

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)/Hartford(Aeast)
Michigan vs Tex. Southern (SWAC)/Oral Roberts (Sumit)
Baylor vs Mt. St. Mary's (NEC)
Illinois (B1G) vs App St (Sbelt)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Alabama (SEC) vs Iona (MAAC)
Houston (AAC) vs Cleveland St (Hor)
Ohio State vs Drexel (CAA)
Iowa vs Grand Canyon (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Arkansas vs Abline Christian (Sland)
Texas (B12) vs E.Washington (Bsky)
Oklahoma St vs Morehead St (OVC)
Kansas vs Colgate (Pat)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Florida St vs UNCG (SoCon)
Purdue vs Liberty (Asun)
West Virginia vs Ohio (MAC)
Virginia vs North Texas (Cusa)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Villanova vs Winthrop (Bsouth)
Colorado vs UCSB (Bwest)
Creighton vs Oregon St (P12)
Tennessee vs Georgetown (Beast)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Texas Tech vs UCLA/Utah State
San Diego St (Mwest) vs VCU/Drake
USC vs Syracuse
LSU vs Louisville
7 seed vs 10 seed
Missouri vs Maryland
Clemson vs Michigan State
Wisconsin vs Florida
Connecticut vs Virginia Tech
8 seed vs 9 seed
Oklahoma vs Georgia Tech (ACC)
Oregon vs St. Bonaventure (A10)
BYU vs Loyola (Mvalley)
North Carolina vs Rutgers
First Four Out
Colorado State
Wichita St
W. Kentucky
Seton Hall
Next Four Out
Bosie State
St. Louis 
Xavier
Memphis
Also Considered
St. John's
Mississippi
Cincinnati

Saturday Morning Bracket

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)/Hartford(Aeast)
Michigan (B1G) vs PV A&M (SWAC)/Fairfield (MAAC)
Baylor vs Mt. St. Mary's (NEC)
Illinois vs App St (Sbelt)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Alabama (SEC) vs Nicholls (Sland)
Houston vs Cleveland St (Hor)
Ohio State vs Drexel (CAA)
Iowa vs Grand Canyon (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Arkansas vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Texas vs E.Washington (Bsky)
Oklahoma St vs Morehead St (OVC)
West Virginia vs Colgate (Pat)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Florida St (ACC) vs UNCG (SoCon)
Purdue vs Liberty (Asun)
Creighton (Best) vs Buffalo (MAC)
Kansas vs W. Kentucky (Cusa)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Villanova vs Winthrop (Bsouth)
Colorado (P12) vs UCSB (Bwest)
Virginia vs UCLA/Utah State
Tennessee vs Syracuse/ColState
6 seed vs 11 seed
San Diego St (Mwest) vs Drake
Texas Tech vs Michigan State
Virginia Tech vs Louisville
Wisconsin vs Wichita St (AAC)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Missouri vs Georgia Tech
Clemson vs VCU
Florida vs North Carolina
USC vs Oregon
8 seed vs 9 seed
Oklahoma vs Maryland
Rutgers vs Connecticut
BYU vs St. Bonaventure (A10)
LSU vs Loyola (Mvalley)
First Four Out
Seton Hall
Bosie State
St. Louis 
Xavier
Next Four Out
Memphis
St. John's
Mississippi

Quick Bubble

 Here is your bubble as of this morning in my eyes.  Georgia Tech is the end of the locks.
That leaves the following teams left sweating it out:

Colorado State
Drake
Michigan State
Syracuse
UCLA
Utah State

The only two teams left still playing are Utah State and Colorado State and play each other today.  I think Colorado is a lock with a win but not necessarily out with a loss.  Utah State is a must win.

Quick Bracket - Notes Later

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)/Hartford(Aeast)
Michigan (B1G) vs PV A&M (SWAC)/St.Peters (MAAC)
Baylor (B12) vs Mt. St. Mary's (NEC)
Illinois vs App St (Sbelt)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Alabama (SEC) vs Nicholls St (Sland)
Houston vs Cleveland St (Hor)
Ohio State vs Drexel (CAA)
Iowa vs Grand Canyon (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Arkansas vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Kansas vs Southern Utah (Bsky)
Texas vs Morehead St (OVC)
West Virginia vs Colgate (Pat)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Virginia (ACC) vs UNCG (SoCon)
Oklahoma St vs Liberty (Asun)
Purdue vs Winthrop (Bsouth)
Florida St vs W. Kentucky (Cusa)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Villanova vs Toledo (MAC)
Creighton (Best) vs UCSB (Bwest)
Wisconsin vs UCLA/Utah State
Tennessee vs Michigan St/Syracuse
6 seed vs 11 seed
Missouri vs Drake
Texas Tech vs Colorado State
Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech
Colorado vs Wichita St (AAC)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Florida vs Louisville
Clemson vs VCU
San Diego St (Mwest) vs St. Bonaventure (A10)
USC vs Loyola (Mvalley)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Oklahoma vs LSU
Rutgers vs Maryland
BYU vs North Carolina
Oregon (P12) vs Connecticut
First Four Out
Seton Hall
Boise State
St. Louis 
Xavier
Next Four Out
Memphis
St. John's
Mississippi
SMU

NCSOS

 

Now that we are down to the last few days of the season we can really dive into the numbers and see what teams are in more trouble than we thought.  When I talk trouble I don’t just mean making the tournament, I also mean those teams that are being overseeded by extremely overrated Bracketologist like Joe Lunardi.  Jerry Palm at CBS is actually really good and consistently dominate Lunardi (as do I).

The two key stats I look at when finalizing my seed list is Non-Conference Strength of Schedule and then a combination of Quad 1 and Quad 2 record.  I read a couple articles in the past from committee members where they explicated said they value who you schedule and how you did higher than all the ranking numbers.  Now, a lot of these ranking numbers have NCSOS and Quad wins baked in but if you are telling me you look at these rankings and then NCSOS that tells me you are using that twice.  I’m going to lock that in and adjust accordingly.

So, that being said the number I look at first is a NCSOS of higher than 200.  You can’t control how good a team is when you play them because you’re scheduling a year out but it’s a pretty good indicator year in and year out if you are a team who tries to schedule cupcakes every year.  Great examples are Syracuse and St. Mary’s who are consistently on the wrong side of the bubble and also consistently have a very low NCSOS

 

This year the teams that jump out at me are the following as it pertains to NCSOS:

Virginia Tech – 239^th

Rutgers – 184^th

Connecticut – 202^nd

Louisville – 216^th

St. Bonaventure – 236^th

Colorado State – 207^th

Xavier – 251^st

St. Louis – 222^nd

 

Most of these teams are “locks” as of right now but I don’t believe the last 3 are in with a loss in the first round of their conference tournaments.  Xavier and Colorado State are my last two need to look good for the committee.  Now, I know I just posted an article about Conference Tournaments not meaning much but this could be a case where the committee doesn’t have those teams in right now anyway due to their NCSOS.  It would not be surprising if the last two in right now were Utah State (NCSOS of 78) and Seton Hall (NCSOS of 28).  Their resumes are very similar otherwise with the exception of W/L record.  The bubble is still very open for 3-4 spots  

The Rubber Meets the Road

 Congrats to all the auto-bids last night; we done with those until Saturday.

Today begins the bubble bursting time that is Conference Tournament week.  Or is it?  Cracked Sidewalks has a great article that shows that this week does not have as much affect on the bubble as one would think.  Outside of bid thieves the idea playing into the field is more myth than reality.  A perfect example would be Duke this year.  One would think that winning 4 games and losing in the ACC Tournament Championship would be enough for them to leap a bunch of teams and get an at-large bid.  After all, that run would include 4 total wins with 3 being Quad 1.  However, this has not been the case in the past 5 years as very few teams, if any, actually play their way into the tournament.  Teams like Duke, Syracuse, Seton Hall, or Mississippi are either in right now and have to hang on or are out and need the auto-bid.

There's not telling if this year will be different because of Covid but if you are a fan of a team on the outside looking in it's best to get the auto bid and erase all doubt.

The Duke Conundrum

This hasn’t been a very good season for Duke. Should Duke fail to win the ACC Tournament, it seems likely they will miss the dance and that of course, means no Final 4. That would be a Final 4 drought dating back to 2015, matching the 2004-2010 drought.

Getting to Final 4’s isn’t easy. Coach K and Duke spoiled it’s fans from 1986-2004, making 10 Final 4’s. That’s an incredible feat. Since 2004, only the title teams of 2010 and 2015 have reached the Final 4.

Perhaps asking what’s wrong with Duke or what does the future hold is the wrong question.  They’ve been awfully good the last decade, of course. Prior to this season, the worst Duke team was 2012, when they finished 19th in KenPom. That team also was over seeded and got bounced by Lehigh.

The real conundrum is, where do they go from here? They have two 5* recruits coming in next year but we’re at the point where the question needs to be asked, so what? Who is coming back with them? Is this how to build a roster and win? Have the best one-and-done teams happened? What is the best way to build a roster?

I think that last question is the one Duke has to wrestle with. After catching lightning in a bottle in 2015, Duke has gotten close twice since then. In 2019 with Zion and 2018 with Bagley and Carter. It shows it can be done but with the doors opening to the G-League, is one-and-done a viable option moving forward? I think it’s a question Kentucky is wrestling with right now, too.

The one-and-done model is a model of potential instant gratification and that isn’t a surprise given K’s age. The administration isn’t going to question his strategy, however, maybe the assistants need to take a bigger picture look. Coach K has adapted through the decades, perhaps the pendulum is tilting back towards “getting old together”. It’s not as glamorous and not a sure thing. Transfers from a program and available transfers from other programs make roster management that much more difficult.

The other issue Duke has staring at it is, succession. There’s little doubt K’s successor is going to be from the family. The problem as we know is, there isn’t a natural choice. It seems almost certain to me, his successor is in Durham right now with him. None of his tree is good enough to come home.

And that’s the crux of what I think about where Duke is today and it’s a hard discussion to have. Duke can’t force K out nor should they but it is time to look forward. With the retirement of AD Kevin White, the new AD is going to take this job knowing that decision looms. Whoever takes that position has to know K’s plan. Duke can defer or be proactive. For their sake, they can’t defer.

It’s my contention the new AD has to be able to hire his own coach and not have one dropped in his or her lap and if that means leaving the family, so be it. There isn’t a Roy Williams to replace Dean eventually. It’s an unenviable position for whoever will take that job but for Duke’s sake, it has to be the best available candidate and if that means a coach with no Duke connections, so be it.

College programs become beholden to the past (Hi, I’m a Michigan football fan) to the point where moving forward is damn near impossible. Alabama football spent 25 years trying to replace Bear Bryant. UCLA still hasn’t replaced John Wooden. Hell, Marquette fans still pine for a guy that roamed the sidelines 45 years ago. Duke must learn from this and the alumni and fan base need to learn from this. The past was great and the future can be, too, just don’t let remember when influence the now. 

Coach K is 74 years-old and as great as he’s been, history tells us 74 year-olds don’t have many good coaching years ahead of them. The clock is ticking in Durham and Duke has to be ready for when it strikes midnight. It also has to understand a new day means new opportunities and not to be afraid of them. 

Tuesday Update

 

5 Bids go out tonight and then we are done with Auto-Bids until Saturday.
 
Colonial – Elon vs Drexel
 
Horizon – Oakland vs Cleveland State
 
NEC – Mount St. Mary’s vs Bryant
 
Summit – Oral Roberts vs North Dakota State
 
WCC – BYU vs Gonzaga
 
In addition, The ACC and the Big West start their conferences today.  UCSB is favored in the Big West but the ACC is wide open.  As long as Virginia doesn’t win I will be somewhat happy.

Monday Bracket - 2 More Bids Tonight

 

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Hartford(AEst)/ PVA&M (SWAC)

Michigan (B1G) vs NC A&T(MEAC)/Bryant(NEC)

Baylor (B12) vs S. Utah (Bsky)

Illinois vs Northeastern (CAA)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Alabama (SEC) vs Cleveland St (Hor)

Houston vs Grand Canyon (WAC)

Ohio State vs Siena (MAAC)

Iowa vs Abilene Christian (Sland)

3 seed vs 14 seed

West Virginia vs Morehead St (OVC)

Arkansas vs S.Dakota St (Smmt)

Kansas vs Colgate (Pat)

Villanova (Beast) vs Georgia St (Sbelt)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Virginia (ACC) vs UNCG (SoCon)

Texas vs Liberty (Asun)

Purdue vs Winthrop (Bsouth)

Florida St vs W. Kentucky (Cusa)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Oklahoma St vs Toledo (MAC)

Creighton vs UCSB (Bwest)

Texas Tech vs Drake/Boise State

Tennessee vs Xavier/Colorado St

6 seed vs 11 seed

Clemson vs UCLA

Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech

Wisconsin vs Michigan State

Missouri vs Wichita St (AAC)

7 seed vs 10 seed

Oklahoma vs North Carolina

Colorado vs VCU

Florida vs St. Bonaventure (A10)

San Diego St (Mwest) vs Loyola (Mvalley)

8 seed vs 9 seed

USC vs LSU

Rutgers vs Maryland

BYU vs Louisville

Oregon (P12) vs Connecticut

 

First Four Out

Utah State

Seton Hall

St. Louis

Syracuse

Next Four Out

Memphis

St. John's

Mississippi

Duke

Also Considered

Louisiana Tech

SMU

Indiana

Stanford

KenPom Fun

A week ago, Brian and I agreed Illinois is much better than Ohio State despite the relative closeness in the top 10 of KenPom. I think the historical data backs this up. It’s my thinking, Illinois is a national title contender while Ohio State is a pretender.  The Buckeyes can certainly make a run in March. They’re legit good enough to make a Final 4 but it would be a historical anomaly to do anything beyond that (And let’s be clear, a Final 4 for them would be a great achievement).

KenPom dating back to 2002 gives us one almost certainty, whoever wins the national title will have a top 20 offense and defense. Only 1 year was that not true and that was 2014 when UConn won. The Huskies finished 15th overall in KenPom and 39th on offense and 10th on defense. 

2014 was a weird year. If we look back, we remember there wasn’t a dominant team. Louisville finished the year atop KenPom but were a 4-seed! Wichita State went undefeated in the regular season only to lose to 8-seed Kentucky. Kentucky was 19th in KenPom before the tournament started. They were much better than an 8-seed. Louisville was the only team that season with a top ten offense and defense. No one else was relatively close. The top offensive team was Duke who was abysmal on defense (86th). The top defensive team was Arizona who was 20th on offense. They made an elite 8, as could have been expected. 2014 best team was probably Florida and they made the Final 4. Why this time on 2014? It’s important to see this anomaly because I thought maybe with the Covid season this year we could see more volatility on the court but I don’t think that’s the case. I think we can trust history and the numbers.

Excluding 2020, 11 of 18 seasons, the team that finished on top of KenPom won the national title. In the 7 other seasons, the top team made the Final 4, 4 times. The exclusions were Kentucky in 2003 (regional final), UNC in 2007 (regional final) and Ohio State in 2011 (Sweet 16). Ohio State lost to Kentucky in the Sweet 16 that year. The Wildcats finished 7th in KenPom and entered the tournament 9th in KenPom. They were the 4-seed in Ohio State’s region which was a tough team to draw that early. One thing to keep an eye on this March is, Ohio State was head and shoulders ahead of the 2nd best KenPom team. They were +5 in AdjEm over Duke, the 2 team in KenPom. That’s where Gonzaga resides now over Michigan and Baylor. To put in perspective how good Gonzaga is this year, they’re +5 over that Ohio State team, too.

Other quick note to highlight include only 3 teams outside the KenPom top 3 have cut down the nets. Syracuse at 8 in 2003 is interesting because they entered the tournament 20 in KenPom. UConn’s 2011 team was 10 to finish the year in KenPom. They entered the tournament 15. Cuse finished 17th and 14th, UConn 2011 19th and 15th in offense and defense.

Since 2015, 2 teams that finished 3rd in KenPom won it all. Duke in 2015 and UNC in 2017. Duke was 6th in KenPom when the tournament started and though they finished 3rd overall, they were the best 3rd KenPom team in history. Don’t let history forget they were a better defensive team than Wisconsin that year. Baylor is currently 3 in KenPom but outside the top 20 (24) on defense. They are very similar to that Duke team.

2017 UNC won finishing 3rd overall, -4 versus Gonzaga in AdjustedEM. That Zags team was good but not nearly as good as this years team. 2017 lacked a great team across the board. That’s why a South Carolina made a Final 4.

What does it all mean? Well, the final weekend of the regular season is wrapping up and we have 4 teams that meet the criteria laid out as national title contenders. They are Gonzaga, Michigan, Illinois and Houston. Houston, like Illinois and Michigan have top 10 offense and defenses. Not included is Baylor who has dropped to 24 in overall defense. This isn’t meant to be an a-ha moment but more a pause for concern. While the Big 14 is the best league this year, I think it has gotten softer as we’ve marched towards the madness while Baylor’s top opponents all seem to be trending up. It’s a minor quibble with no basis other than passing observation. Baylor can cut the nets down.

The top has separated themselves this year and those are clearly the best teams. Iowa is 4th in KenPom but are 60th in defense. Unless I see that in the 20-30 range, I’m dismissing them. The 7th best team, Ohio State is closer to the 20th team at the moment than the 6th. Chaos in a chaos year? It’ll buck a lot of history if that’s the case.

Conference Tournaments Kicking Off

 Colonial - another one that is wide open; I'm going with Pride, the Hofstra Pride.

NEC - they are only sending their top 4 seeds.  It's been Bryant and Wagner in the bracket all year.  I'm picking 4th seeded Mount St. Mary's

Summit - roll the dice here.  Any of the Dakota's could take this 16 seed bid and lose to Michigan in the first round.  Let say it the Dakota from the South and let's put a State at the end of it.

Saturday Morning Bracket

 

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Texas St(Sbelt)/ PVA&M (SWAC)

Michigan (B1G) vs NC A&T(MEAC)/Wagner(NEC)

Baylor (B12) vs S. Utah (Bsky)

Illinois vs James Madison (Col)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Alabama (SEC) vs Cleveland St (Hor)

Houston vs Grand Canyon (WAC)

Ohio State vs Siena (MAAC)

Villanova (Beast) vs UMBC (Aeast)

3 seed vs 14 seed

West Virginia vs UNCG (SoCon)

Iowa vs S.Dakota St (Smmt)

Kansas vs Navy (Pat)

Arkansas vs Abilene Christian (Sland)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Florida St (ACC) vs Liberty (Asun)

Texas Tech vs Winthrop (Bsouth)

Virginia vs W. Kentucky (Cusa)

Texas vs Belmont (OVC)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Purdue vs Toledo (MAC)

Oklahoma St vs UCSB (Bwest)

Creighton vs Drake/Boise State

Missouri vs Georgia Tech/Michigan St

6 seed vs 11 seed

Clemson vs Colorado St

Wisconsin vs North Carolina

Virginia Tech vs Wichita St (AAC)

Florida vs VCU (A10)

7 seed vs 10 seed

Oklahoma vs St. Bonaventure

Colorado vs UCLA

Tennessee vs Xavier

San Diego St (Mwest) vs Loyola (Mvalley)

8 seed vs 9 seed

USC vs LSU

Louisville vs Connecticut

BYU vs Maryland

Oregon (P12) vs Rutgers

First Four Out

Duke

Utah State

Seton Hall

St. Louis

Next Four Out

Memphis

St. John's

Syracuse

Stanford

Also Considered

Louisiana Tech

Minnesota

SMU

Indiana

First Bid(s)

 The first bid goes out to Liberty who faces ineligible North Alabama tomorrow in the A-Sun championship.  Even if the Flames lose they are in.

Tonight at 7pm the Ohio Valley will crown their winner as Belmont takes on Morehead State.

Two more bids go out tomorrow and all conferences finish up regular season play tonight/tomorrow.

Friday Update

 
Lots of stuff going on today; only 9 more days before Selection Sunday.
 
In yesterday’s action most favorites held court.  Oklahoma and Oklahoma State lost but those were “good” losses.  Michigan State lost again and is danger of falling out.  Nobody is jumping up from the first four out so this weekend’s games are huge.  At this point the bubble “in” is quite large but the bubble “out” is small and rather underwhelming.  I mean, Duke and Seton Hall are your best teams on the outside looking in.  Meh.
 
As for today we have a lot of A-10 bubble action along with Missouri Valley action.  Colorado State is currently a 10 seed so they are not safe against Nevada.
 
Lastly, we have two conferences kicking off
 
Southern – Any of the top 3 seeds can win and I picked Furman in the Send it in Jerome picks so lets go with them here
 
Sun Belt – Georgia State is getting hot at the right time.  They are my pick here.
 
Watch for a midday bracket..

Conference Tournaments - Thursday

 

 

Missouri Valley – Loyola is a lock at this point and Drake is currently in.  They however, will be without ShanQuan Hemphill so I’m predicting they get upset by Missouri State who also ends up beating Loyola in the Championship for the auto-bid

 

West Coast – Gonzaga.  End Communication

Conference Tournaments - Wednesday

 

Ohio Valley – Belmont is the #1 seed and after losing their last two I would expect them to right the ship and blow through this for a 14 seed.

 

Atlantic Sun – Liberty is the #1 seed and favorite but I’m going to go with the minor upset and have #3 Lipscomb beat them for the chance to lose to Villanova in the tournament.

 

Patriot – Navy is the 1 seed, Colgate is the 2 seed and I can see them playing ech other for the bid.  Colgate, due to no non-conference, has a top 15 NET.  That means nothing!

 

Atlantic 10 – Into the great wide open…..I could make a case for anybody all the way down to 8 seeded Richmond, who I’m predicting to win it.  This could be a very entertaining conference tournament,

Bubble Watch (and Michigan plays Illinois tonight)

 

Xavier vs Georgetown – Xavier is a 9 seed and has room for error down the road

Fresno St vs Boise St – Boise St lost both games to San Diego State and is starting to slip.  I have them as one of the Play in games.  Yes, I still call them the play-in games

Duke vs Georgia Tech – simple, winner is in, loser is First Four out.

Indiana vs Michigan State – Indiana needs to win at least 2 to get back into the bracket.  Michigan State is my last team in. No need to explain what happens with a loss

Memphis vs South Florida – Memphis is a fringe candidate at best but they still are worth mentioning.

 

Lastly, check out current #1 seeds Illinois and Michigan battle it out tonight.  Should be a great game!

Monday Bracketology

 

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Texas St(Sbelt)/ PVA&M (SWAC)

Michigan (B1G) vs NC A&T(MEAC)/Bryant(NEC)

Baylor (B12) vs Cleveland St (Hor)

Illinois vs James Madison (Col)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Alabama (SEC) vs Grand Canyon (WAC)

Houston vs Siena (MAAC)

Ohio State vs UMBC (Aeast)

Villanova (Beast) vs E.Washington (Bsky)

3 seed vs 14 seed

West Virginia vs UNCG (SoCon)

Iowa vs S.Dakota St (Smmt)

Kansas vs Navy (Pat)

Arkansas vs Abilene Christian (Sland)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Florida St (ACC) vs Liberty (Asun)

Texas Tech vs Winthrop (Bsouth)

Virginia vs Toledo (MAC)

Texas vs Belmont (OVC)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Purdue vs W. Kentucky (Cusa)

Oklahoma St vs UCSB (Bwest)

Creighton vs Georgia Tech/Michigan St

Oklahoma vs Drake/Boise State

6 seed vs 11 seed

Missouri vs Connecticut

Wisconsin vs North Carolina

Virginia Tech vs Wichita St (AAC)

Clemson vs VCU (A10)

7 seed vs 10 seed

Florida vs Loyola (Mvalley)

Colorado vs Colorado St

Tennessee vs LSU

San Diego St (Mwest) vs St. Bonaventure

8 seed vs 9 seed

Maryland vs Xavier

USC vs Oregon

Louisville vs UCLA (P10)

BYU vs Rutgers

 

First Four Out

Duke

Richmond

Utah State

Seton Hall

Next Four Out

St. Louis

Indiana

Memphis

Stanford

Also Considered

St. John's

Louisiana Tech

Syracuse

Minnesota

SMU