Kentucky?

Saw some pundits wonder aloud if Kentucky was “figuring things out” or “getting hot at the right time” after their second consecutive win. Last night’s win at Arkansas was a good win but it was only a week ago today, UK lost a fourth consecutive game. Could they make a run? I suppose, things look wide open, but this is Cal’s second weakest team.

The 2013 team actually finished 21-12. It felt like they were worse than that but an injury to Nerlens Noel and one of their weaker defenses under Coach Cal probably made it seem that way. This team is better. That team finished 55th in KenPom, this one is 26th. Barring a collapse, this team will finish much better than that.

This team is solid defensively, 20th in efficiency but pretty weak offensively. They’re 50th and that’s not terrible but there are red flags everywhere. They only shoot 33.3% from 3, that’s 252nd. They’re really good at getting to the free throw line but shoot 69%, also 252nd. They turn it over on 19% of possessions, which is 233rd in the nation. They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams, but that’s offset by being a terrible defensive rebounding team.

Now, on defense, opponents shoot only 29% from 3. That’s the 3rd best number in the nation. Many feel 3% defense is part luck, though, so it may not mean much but it’s still a number to know. They block a lot of shots but otherwise, everything else they do is meh.

I only take the time to look at Kentucky because if they do get on a run over the next 3 weeks or even go 4-2 or something of that sort, we’ll see people telling us to look out for them. No one can question the talent. I have a hard time believing a team that gets nearly 60% of their scoring from 2 and 22% from the line while shooting it poorly from there can make a deep run. If they were an elite defense, maybe but a deeper dive into the numbers tells me this is a good but hardly elite defense. Couple that with the type of offense they have, I don’t believe this will be one of those Cal teams like 2014 that makes a Final 4.