8 of the 10 teams are in the KenPom top 50. Oklahoma State and Iowa State are outside the top 50 (75th and 96th respectively) but are a tough game if you aren’t at the top of your game. The highest rated team is still Texas Tech. The best team is still probably Kansas from a talent standpoint but they’re a maddening team.
Offensively Challenged
Texas Tech is 69th in offensive efficiency and there are questions about the availability of Keenan Evans who was injured against Baylor on Saturday. A tremendous defensive unit, when they lose in March, it’ll probably be a poor offensive performance that’s the culprit.
Texas is hanging around the bubble thanks to a defense that is 5th in defensive efficiency. The offense doesn’t match up. It’s 108th. They do have a special player in Mo Bamba but I doubt his game can carry them. If you think there can be another South Carolina like-run this year, Texas might be your team. I’d put those chances at 2%.
Baylor is 66th in offensive efficiency and turns the ball over way too much. They’re a mediocre shooting team as well. They rebound well on offense, that’s about it.
Defensively Challenged
Kansas State isn’t terrible on defense but it doesn’t profile as anything other than opening round fodder. They shoot well enough that they could steal a game.
Oklahoma has fallen apart. Defensively, they’ve been dropping like an anchor. Offensively, they rely too much on Trae Young. And Young has hit the wall. They let a weak offensive squad in Texas score at will on Saturday. Oklahoma is donezo.
The Inconsistent Two
West Virginia and Kansas are second weekend squads just as likely to lose the opening weekend. West Virginia is 13th in KenPom and they play a style most teams won’t see through the course of the season but I still think it wears them down as well. They foul like crazy and give up a lot of second opportunities but teams still don’t always shoot well against them. They also force a ton of turnovers but if you protect the ball against them, you’ll be able to score a lot. They have an efficient offense but are prone to bad shooting nights/droughts. A great rebounding team, they also protect the ball as good as anyone.
Kansas is 11th in KenPom. 15th in offensive efficiency and 32nd in defensive efficiency, this is a maddening team. Some of their conference wins leave you scratching your heads asking how the hell did they win that one. That doesn’t strike me as a great recipe for March. Now, they are talented enough that if things click, they can make a Final 4. They’re a poor rebounding team but are a very good shooting team. I feel like Udoka Azubuike is always in foul trouble but the numbers don’t really show that. They also don’t foul much as a team. They’re confounding to me.
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