Bubble Games Tonight

Providence (11) vs Xavier (1) – A road win over a 1 seed would push the Friars up a seed line or more.   A loss doesn’t hurt a ton but they still are only an 11 seed.

Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame (AC) – Pittsburgh it bad.  Notre Dame needs every win it can get and has Bonzie Colson back

Temple (AC) vs Connecticut – Temple is on life support.  A loss and the plug is pulled

Syracuse (FF) vs Boston College (AC) – I’m not real sure if BC should be Considered but they are here.  This would be a Quadrant 2 win for Syracuse.

Last Night's Action

Florida beat Alabama to fall into the lock status.  Their seed is still all over the board.  I haven't updated my bracket but I'd say about 7-8ish right now. Alabama is still alive but probably a 10 now.

Mississippi lost a big chance at Tennessee and is now on life support.

Rhode Island got slaughtered at home but is still a lock

Baylor crushed Oklahoma who is still falling.  They may be as far as a 9 now.  Baylor is probably in the bracket now...more on that later.

St. Bonavanture needs 3OT to hang on to their seed, 11, against Davidson

Boise State, our last place team in, lost to San Diego State.  They will be replaced by Baylor in today's bracket.

Bracket and Bubble game to follow.

Arch Madness

Also beginning tomorrow is Arch Madness. The Missouri Valley makes its annual trek to St. Louis. I’ll be curious following this tournament how the attendance and atmosphere is. It was a tough blow losing Creighton, losing Wichita State makes it interesting from a ticket selling standpoint.

As for the games, Loyola-Chicago comes in as the regular season champion and clearly the best team in the Valley. They’re 45th in KenPom, ahead of quite a few bubble teams. They have a win at Florida and a win over Horizon contender Wright State but a bad loss to Milwaukee. At the very least, they have to make the title game to even sniff an at-large. That’s too bad but speaks larger of the conference.

The next best team in the Valley according to KenPom is Missouri State at 115 and they finished 7-11 in the league. The 2-seed is 138th, Southern Illinois. Usual contender Northern Iowa finished 7-11 in league and is 128th in KenPom. Illinois State is the 3-seed and behind all those aforementioned teams at 148th in KenPom. Basically, the league has coagulated into mediocrity. The Valley really needs Loyola to come out of St. Louis for a realistic run in March.

The Pick: Loyola

MAAC-tion

Tomorrow, the MAAC begins its conference tournament from lovely Albany, NY. Yes, Siena at 4-14 in conference, is the home team. I don’t think it’ll matter.

Rider is the 1-seed and is 131st in KenPom. Canisius is the 2-seed and 121st in KenPom. Iona is the 4-seed and stands 143rd in KenPom. The 3-seed Niagara is 194th in KenPom which is behind the 8-seed Monmouth. There would be some irony if Monmouth would steal a bid this year.

The big disappointment in this league is Siena. They finished the year at 8-23 overall. They should be better than that.

The Pick: Canisius 

The Rutgers Invitational

Unbelievably or maybe believeably enough, the Big 14 begins its conference tournament tomorrow night at the Mecca of Basketball, Madison Square Garden. In an attempt to grow the footprint of the league, Jim Delany bastardized his season and tournament for the sake of TV sets and money.

Let’s begin with the preposterous notion there are college sports fans or high school athletes in the northeast who don’t know about the Big 14. Adding Rutgers and Maryland was done so under the ridiculous pretense of opening new recruiting grounds and tv markets. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of sports viewing habits know how these regions are not flooded with college fans. Are there a lot of alumni from Big 14 schools? Absolutely. Were they not seeing their schools on TV? The answer is no. As for recruiting, that’s nonsense. Wisconsin pulled kids out of New Jersey for football for years. Ron Dayne ring a bell?

Anyway, the Big 14 is a punchline this week as they chase footprints and dollars. As for the tournament itself, Maryland and Nebraska need a good week to keep themselves in the discussion. Michigan State and Purdue have spent February going through the motions and look for some momentum (doesn’t exist, I know) that would be lost by sitting a week. Or maybe they’d be confident and refreshed. Who knows? The narrative has so many possibilities with that week out of the spotlight. 

Could someone spring an upset? Sure, but the league is pretty top heavy. Michigan is the 5-seed but they’re clearly better than Nebraska, the 4-seed, regardless of the January result. But I can’t dismiss home court advantage and the burdensome travel from the Midwest. 

The Pick: Rutgers

Bubble Watch - February 27

As Conference Tournaments kick into full gear and Kurly nails down the tourney favorites I turn my attention to the Bubble.  It’s an odd one this year.  Most teams are clearly on one side or the other with only 3-4 teams that could be the last one in and the last one out.  For my bracket my last 4 in are Louisville, Boise State, St. Bonaventure, and USC.  My first four out are Syracuse, Baylor, Washington, and Nebraska.  Among the experts it seems clear Louisville is on the safe side while Nebraska is outside looking in.  The remaining 6 teams seems to flip around based on each “expert” although I have seen some with UCLA out.  As of now that’s where we stand; let’s look at tonight’s games.

Florida (10) vs Alabama (10) – winner sits good while looser may slip into an 11 seed.  Probably above the last 4 in though

Missouri (9) vs Vanderbilt – Mizzou is probably safe but a loss here hurts

Tennessee (3) vs Mississippi St (AC) – Lunardi has them as a First Four Out and an upset win here probably puts them above Nebraska in my head

Oklahoma (7) vs Baylor – Baylor is one of those middle teams.  They need the win here and some help.  The Sooners are falling apart

Kansas State (10) vs TCU (6) – TCU is a questionable 6 but safe.  Kansas State needs to win 1-2 more to be safe.

Auburn (2) vs Arkansas (9) – Man I hate Bruce Pearl.  Lock City for Arkansas with a win

Boise State (12) vs San Diego State – not an easy place for Boise to win but a loss here is devastating.  They are questionable at best as my last team in.

NEC

The NEC begins its conference tournament tomorrow night at campus sites of the higher seeds. This format runs through the course of the tournament.

Wagner won the regular season title and is 162nd in KenPom. The only other team in the top 200 is St. Francis (PA). The winner should be opening round fodder for someone. Especially if it isn’t Wagner.

The Pick: Wagner

Tuesday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Virginia (ACC) vs Ark-PB(SWAC)/Savanah(MEAC)

Xavier (Beast) vs FGVU (Asun)/Nichols St(Sland)

Kansas (B12) vs UNCAshville (Bsouth)

Xavier (Beast) vs Wagner (NEC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Michigan State (B1G) vs Penn (Ivy)

Auburn (SEC) vs Montana (Bsky)

North Carolina vs N,Kentucky (Hor)

Duke vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Purdue vs Bucknell (Pat)

Cincinnati (AAC) vs Rider (MAAC)

Tennessee vs Charleston (Col)

Ohio State vs UNC-Greensboro

4 seed vs 13 seed

Wichita State vs Murray St (OVC)

Clemson vs South Dakota St (Summit)

Texas Tech vs Vermont (Aeast)

Arizona (Pac12) vs Buffalo (MAC)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Gonzaga vs Louisiana (Sbelt)

Rhode Island (A10) vs Loyola (Mvalley)

West Virginia vs New Mexico St (WAC)

Kentucky vs Louisville/Boise State

6 seed vs 11 seed

Nevada (Mwest) vs St. Bonavanture/USC

Michigan vs UCLA

Miami vs Middle Tenn (Cusa)

TCU vs Providence

7 seed vs 10 seed

Seton Hall vs Kansas State

Florida State vs Florida

Oklahoma vs Alabama

Creighton vs Arizona State

8 seed vs 9 seed

St. Mary's vs Arkansas

Houston vs Missouri

Butler vs Virginia Tech

Texas A&M vs NC State

First Four Out

Syracuse

Baylor

Washington

Nebraska

Next Four Out

Texas

Marquette

W. Kentucky

Maryland

Also Considered

BYU

Oregon

Utah

Notre Dame

Boston College

Mississippi St

Temple

Ohio Valley

Beginning tomorrow from beautiful Evansville, Indiana, the Ohio Valley begins their annual “watch the 1-see get shocked into the NIT” tournament.

That 1-seed this year is perennially March pest, Murray State. The Racers won the league title on the strength of a season-ending 11-game winning streak. Their last loss came against the 2nd place finisher, Belmont. Both are 65th and 81st in KenPom respectively. Either would cause an opening round opponent to sweat.

Jacksonville State and Austin Peay are 151st and 185th in KenPom. AP is the 3 seed and Jacksonville State the 4th seed. Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State both finished 10-8 in league. Tech is 225th in KP, TSU is 195th.

I’ll just say it, it’ll be a shame if Murray State or Belmont don’t come out of the OVC. Both can be a problem during the tournament, even though Belmont has been a shrinking violet as a Cinderella. This is one of those conference tournaments I hate because weird things can happen.

The Pick: Belmont

Patriot League

The Patriot League begins their conference tournament tomorrow night. The Patriot League also plays all tournament games at the higher seed.

Bucknell won the league by 4 games and is the favorite. They’re 107th in KenPom and should they make it out of the conference tournament, they’d be a tough opening round matchup for someone. The next closest league team in KenPom is Colgate at 211. Nothing is certain in these conference tournaments but Bucknell not winning the Patriot will be a pretty big upset.

The Pick: Bucknell

Big South

The Big South Tournament kicks off tomorrow. All games are played at the higher seed until the final which is held in Asheville, NC. Yes, UNC-Asheville is the 1-seed.

That said, this is how the teams shake up entering the tournament via KenPom:

151: Winthrop

172: Radford

182: UNC-Asheville

184: Liberty

Winthrop and Radford each went 12-6 in league, 1 game behind Asheville. Realistically, I think any 3 of these can win.

The Pick: Winthrop

Rhode Island

I jumped on the Danny Hurley Rhode Island bandwagon years ago. So, suck it, haterZ. Blind squirrel and all that jazz. Anyway, the Rams are 23-4 and have clinched their first A-10 regular season title. Barring a collapse, they should be safe for a tournament bid even with a slip-up in the conference tournament.

How good are they? Well, they’re 27th overall in KenPom. The Rams are 44th on offense and 33rd on defense. Brian’s last bracket had them as a 5-seed and that’s about right if we use the numbers but depending on the matchup, I’d think they’d be susectiple to a dreaded 5-12 upset.

They simply don’t turn the ball over and they force a ton of turnovers. On offense, they’re turnover % is 21st best in the nation. On defense, they force turnovers on 24% of possessions. That’s 3rd best in the country. They also possess the 8th best steal %. Opponents also don’t make many 3’s against them. Without watching them, these kind of numbers tell you the guards can defend. As for the rest of the numbers, nothing else jumps out at you other than they foul a lot and don’t draw a lot of fouls.

Seniors (EDIT: Definitely not Sophomores!) Jared Terrell  and EC Matthews lead the show. Both have seemingly been there forever. Matthews missed time earlier in the season due to injury but is back. Terrell shoots 41% from 3. Sophomore guard Jeff Dowtin runs the point and I think you could argue he might be their best player. He has a good assist rate and is a very efficient player. 

When Danny Hurley came from Wagner, Rhode Island had sunk about as low as you could without some kind of scandal causing it. Now, they’re the best program in the A-10. Hurley will be highly sought after but even losing Terrell and Matthews, he has some solid talent returning next year. All that said, Rhode Island fans probably know this squad is their best chance for a run since the late 1990’s.

Atlantic Sun Fun

Amazingly, we’re at CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT SEASON! The Atlantic Sun kicks things off tonight. The league does it right, playing all 7 games of their tournament on home courts. 

The prohibitive favorite is Florida Gulf Coast. They’re 122nd in KenPom. The next best team is 2-seed Lipscomb at 179. The rest of the league is hot trash. If someone other than the 2 aforementioned teams wins, they’ll be play-in fodder.

The Pick: Florida Gulf Coast

Top 10 Laughs at the End of the Big 14 Season

10. Michigan - The Wolverines are firing on all cylinders. They went into Maryland and mollywhomped the Terps. 

9. Kansas- The Jayhawks wrapped up a 14th consecutive league title with a very good win in Lubbock. Devonté Graham has entered discussions for national POY and is probably the Big XII POY over Trae Young. I still don’t trust this team but here we are again.

8. Purdue- They have unimpressive back-to-back wine following their 3-game slide. Still a potential Final 4 team if things break, they’ve lost the momentum of January. 

7. North Carolina- They handled Syracuse in their only game this week. 

6. Gonzaga- Where they get seeded in a few weeks will be interesting. This Zags team interests me from the standpoint of, they now feel like a “power” team. I don’t feel like we have to defend their inclusion here but I’m also not convinced their as good as previous Zag teams and are benefitting from a lot of parity throughout the nation. In other words, they could be underseeded but overrated.

5. Xavier- I can’t put them ahead of Villanova but they have a clear path to the Big East title.

4. Villanova- The defense is legit concern now. Creighton is good on offense no doubt but Nova never looked capable of getting a needed stop in overtime. Big East tournament is now a referendum on their defense for me, less wins and losses.

3. Michigan State- Screw this cesspool

2. Duke- Note to Badger fans who think they’ll be hanging a banner for 2015, Duke beat you because Coach K is a better coach than Bo Ryan and Duke has better players. Also, if they play like they have the last two weeks, Duke and K are heading towards another banner.  And I hope they do a parade in Madison if they do.

1. Virginia- Tony Bennett is the worst

The Magic of March: The Utes of 1998

Twenty years ago produced one of the best Final 4’s of our lifetime and a tremendous tournament in general. It was Bryce Drew, John Beilein taking a 14-seed Richmond past 3-seed South Carolina, Rip Hamilton ripping out Washington’s heart on a what felt like a dozen attempted putbacks, West Virginia’s Jarrod West banking in a 3 against Cincinnati to shock the 2-seed Bearcats in the round of 32, Rhode Island lead by Cuttino Mobley, Tyson Wheeler and Luther Clay shocking a Kansas team with Paul Pierce and Rae’s Lafrentz, the same Rhode Island team who took Stanford to the brink in a brilliant regional final and of course, the amazing Kentucky comeback at the expense of Duke in another unreal regional final

1998 was what makes the tournament so great. It also proved to be the high point of the career of the legendary Rick Majerus who took Utah to the Final 4 in a year that began as what many perceived to be a rebuilding year. On top of everything else, this was a tournament defined by his coaching decisions and the out of this world brilliance of Andre Miller.

Utah had made two straight 16’s, having lost in 1997 to Kentucky. It would mark the end of the Keith Van Horn era, arguably the greatest player in Utah history. Utah responded by going 25-2 in the regular season, only losing two conference road games. Still, following an opening round loss in the WAC tournament to UNLV, Utah would receive a 3-seed out west behind Cincinnati and defending champ, Arizona who would be the prohibitive favorite in the region.

Utah smothered the Dons of San Francisco to open the dance. They followed that with a 6-point win over Arkansas. Utah caught a bit of a break as they drew West Virginia in the Sweet 16. The Mountaineers, as mentioned before, had shocked 2-seed Cincinnati at the buzzer in the round of 32. Still, while Utah lead throughout the game, it was rarely comfortable and survived a buzzer-beating three that would have tied the game to advance to the regional final.

In the regional final, they would meet the defending champion and favorite, Arizona. The Wildcats has the dynamic back court duo of Miles Simon and Mike Bibby. They also had AJ Bramlett, Jason Terry, Michael Dickerson and Bennett Davison. They may as well have been the Generals to the Utes Globetrotters. Utah ran them off the court in stunning fashion lead by PG Andre Miller’s triple-double. Michael Doleac and Alex Jensen would add double-doubles as Utah dominated in the paint. 

The game is best remembered as the “triangle and two” game. Majerus didn’t exactly invent this as a way to beat Zona. USC had done so during the regular season but it wasn’t something Utah had done all year. They executed it brilliantly. Arizona shot a paltry 28% and Utah crushed them on the glass.

Utah was so proficient at the triangle and two zone, they would employ it again the following week against Final 4 opponent North Carolina. It would work again as the underdog Utes held off the Tar Heels who had Vince Carter and Antwan Jamison on that squad. Shooting star Shammond Williams would be a non-factor against the Utes defense. Andre Miller continued his brilliant play with 16 points, 14 boards and 7 assists.

The Utes magic would last another 30 minutes or so of court time. Utah would come out in the national title game and take a surprising 41-31 lead into half. At the first under four timeout, they still had a ten point lead. Kentucky, the comeback Cats, would claw to a 60-58 lead. Utah answered with 6 straight points before Kentucky exerted their will over the last 4 minutes to pull away an win. Kentucky earned the win with great defense and by making 11 of their final 12 free throws. Majerus would admit afterward, his team had simply run out of gas. Whatever the case, they got everything they could out of that tank of gas.

1998 is why we love March Madness. It had incredible upsets, buzzer beaters, Cinderella’s, compelling matchups and a once-in-a-lifetime type team in Utah make it all the way to cusp of the mountaintop.

1988 gave us Danny and the Miracles and 2008 gave us Mario Chalmers and the blue blood, 1-seed Final 4. What do you have, 2018?

Thursday Notes

Duke looked dominate in beating Louisville.  They are starting to look like a National Champion contender in the advanced metrics department now.  Louisville, on the other hand is now one of the last 4 in.  With all the distraction going on with the 2013 title I can see them slipping out (as I predicted in November).

As for the bubble, both Texas and Florida lost.  Florida has enough to remain on the good side of the cut line but Texas falls out. Ready to jump in and take their place were Syracuse but they got beat by a peaking North Carolina team so the last spot in the bracket goes to Boise State.

Georgia and Penn State lose and fall off our Also Considered list.

Kentucky?

Saw some pundits wonder aloud if Kentucky was “figuring things out” or “getting hot at the right time” after their second consecutive win. Last night’s win at Arkansas was a good win but it was only a week ago today, UK lost a fourth consecutive game. Could they make a run? I suppose, things look wide open, but this is Cal’s second weakest team.

The 2013 team actually finished 21-12. It felt like they were worse than that but an injury to Nerlens Noel and one of their weaker defenses under Coach Cal probably made it seem that way. This team is better. That team finished 55th in KenPom, this one is 26th. Barring a collapse, this team will finish much better than that.

This team is solid defensively, 20th in efficiency but pretty weak offensively. They’re 50th and that’s not terrible but there are red flags everywhere. They only shoot 33.3% from 3, that’s 252nd. They’re really good at getting to the free throw line but shoot 69%, also 252nd. They turn it over on 19% of possessions, which is 233rd in the nation. They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams, but that’s offset by being a terrible defensive rebounding team.

Now, on defense, opponents shoot only 29% from 3. That’s the 3rd best number in the nation. Many feel 3% defense is part luck, though, so it may not mean much but it’s still a number to know. They block a lot of shots but otherwise, everything else they do is meh.

I only take the time to look at Kentucky because if they do get on a run over the next 3 weeks or even go 4-2 or something of that sort, we’ll see people telling us to look out for them. No one can question the talent. I have a hard time believing a team that gets nearly 60% of their scoring from 2 and 22% from the line while shooting it poorly from there can make a deep run. If they were an elite defense, maybe but a deeper dive into the numbers tells me this is a good but hardly elite defense. Couple that with the type of offense they have, I don’t believe this will be one of those Cal teams like 2014 that makes a Final 4.

Quick Notes - Wednesday

3 of the 4 7 seeds fall:
Texas A&M lost to Mississippi State, Arkansas to Kentucky, and Missouri to Mississippi.
None of these are too damaging, maybe 1 seed line, but it continues to muddy up the middle of the SEC.  I'm on the fence on whether this is a 7 or 8 team bid league.
I have no doubt they don't have a contender among them.

Baylor lost but they weren't in my bracket so they continue to be on the outside looking in.   Nebraska just keeps hanging around even though their resume is very thin.

Quick Notes - Tuesday

Kansas just destroys Oklahoma and they continue their fall.  Once a one seed in my bracket, they are now an 8 seed.

Miami beats Notre Dame and they are on their last legs.  They need a huge run in the ACC tournament to even be considered.

Maryland wins to stay in the Next Four out group.  Meh.

Monday Morning Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Virginia (ACC) vs Gramb(SWAC)/Savanah(MEAC)

Kansas (B12) vs FGVU (Asun)/Nichols St(Sland)

Duke vs UNCAshville (Bsouth)

Kansas (B12) vs Penn (Ivy)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Michigan State (B1G) vs Wagner (NEC)

Xavier (Beast) vs Montana (Bsky)

Auburn (SEC) vs Wright St (Hor)

Purdue vs UCSB (Bwest)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Texas Tech vs Bucknell (Pat)

North Carolina vs Rider (MAAC)

Cincinnati (AAC) vs Charleston (Col)

Tennessee vs Murray St (OVC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Arizona (Pac12) vs ETSU (SoCon)

Clemson vs South Dakota St (Summit)

Ohio State vs Vermont (Aeast)

Gonzaga vs Louisiana (Sbelt)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Wichita State vs Loyola (Mvalley)

Rhode Island (A10) vs Buffalo (MAC)

West Virginia vs St. Bonavanture/Texas

Michigan vs NC State/Kansas State

6 seed vs 11 seed

Nevada (Mwest) vs New Mexico St (WAC)

St. Mary's vs Middle Tenn (Cusa)

Oklahoma vs UCLA

Kentucky vs USC

7 seed vs 10 seed

Arizona State vs Louisville

Seton Hall vs Virginia Tech

Florida State vs Providence

Miami vs Florida

8 seed vs 9 seed

Creighton vs Alabama

Texas A&M vs Houston

Arkansas vs Butler

Missouri vs TCU

First Four Out

Syracuse

Boise State

Baylor

Washington

Next Four Out

Nebraska

Marquette

W. Kentucky

Maryland

Also Considered

BYU

Oregon

Utah

Notre Dame

Boston College

Mississippi St

Temple

Penn State

Georgia

Big XII Prospecting

I mentioned yesterday that I didn’t foresee great things for the Big XII come March. It’s the most competitive and deepest league but there isn’t a team I see as a legit title contender. 

8 of the 10 teams are in the KenPom top 50. Oklahoma State and Iowa State are outside the top 50 (75th and 96th respectively) but are a tough game if you aren’t at the top of your game. The highest rated team is still Texas Tech. The best team is still probably Kansas from a talent standpoint but they’re a maddening team.

Offensively Challenged

Texas Tech is 69th in offensive efficiency and there are questions about the availability of Keenan Evans who was injured against Baylor on Saturday. A tremendous defensive unit, when they lose in March, it’ll probably be a poor offensive performance that’s the culprit.

Texas is hanging around the bubble thanks to a defense that is 5th in defensive efficiency. The offense doesn’t match up. It’s 108th. They do have a special player in Mo Bamba but I doubt his game can carry them. If you think there can be another South Carolina like-run this year, Texas might be your team. I’d put those chances at 2%.

Baylor is 66th in offensive efficiency and turns the ball over way too much. They’re a mediocre shooting team as well. They rebound well on offense, that’s about it.

Defensively Challenged

Kansas State isn’t terrible on defense but it doesn’t profile as anything other than opening round fodder. They shoot well enough that they could steal a game.

Oklahoma has fallen apart. Defensively, they’ve been dropping like an anchor. Offensively, they rely too much on Trae Young. And Young has hit the wall. They let a weak offensive squad in Texas score at will on Saturday. Oklahoma is donezo.

The Inconsistent Two

West Virginia and Kansas are second weekend squads just as likely to lose the opening weekend. West Virginia is 13th in KenPom and they play a style most teams won’t see through the course of the season but I still think it wears them down as well. They foul like crazy and give up a lot of second opportunities but teams still don’t always shoot well against them. They also force a ton of turnovers but if you protect the ball against them, you’ll be able to score a lot. They have an efficient offense but are prone to bad shooting nights/droughts. A great rebounding team, they also protect the ball as good as anyone. 

Kansas is 11th in KenPom. 15th in offensive efficiency and 32nd in defensive efficiency, this is a maddening team. Some of their conference wins leave you scratching your heads asking how the hell did they win that one. That doesn’t strike me as a great recipe for March. Now, they are talented enough that if things click, they can make a Final 4. They’re a poor rebounding team but are a very good shooting team. I feel like Udoka Azubuike is always in foul trouble but the numbers don’t really show that. They also don’t foul much as a team. They’re confounding to me.

It’s a Top 10

10. Texas Tech- A loss at Baylor isn’t concerning to me. Baylor is pretty good. It does highlight one problem in the league, while deep, there’s no legit title contender. Kansas is uber-talented but wildly inconsistent. The league is the best league but March could be a bust. If it is, don’t be so simplistic and blast the league. The Big 14 isn’t very good but they could have the national champion. It won’t change the truth about how good the league is this year.

9. Xavier- Villanova has been absolute thorn in their side since joining the Big East. The loss exposed why they’ll be susceptible to an early March exit, they are not a good defensive team. They’ll be a lot of pressure on the senior back court to carry this team.

8. Arizona- They should win out in league play. The win at Arizona State in that atmosphere was impressive. Like Duke, this is probably a projection ranking based still on potential. 

7. Duke- No Bagley as they head to Clemson today. I’ll be curious to see how Clemson plays offensively. If they’re scoring effortlessly or even simply getting great looks over and over, that’ll be a bad look for Duke.

6. North Carolina- Have won 5 straight and had a real impressive win at Louisville last night. Weird to think of the defending champs as a dark horse heading into March. 

5. Gonzaga- They will be the most underseeded team there is next month.

4. Purdue- The offense has gone stale. Wisconsin is not a good offensive team and the Kohl Center has not been an advantage this year for them. The Big 14 regular season ends next Sunday!

3. Virginia- The Bennett family belongs in GITMO.

2. Michigan State- They held Northwestern to 11 second half points in one of the dumbest games of the year. Northwestern scored 49 points in the first half and proceeded to miss 17 straight shots in the 2nd half. The game was played at Rosemount as NU is undergoing renovations. It was pro-Sparty and Tom Izzo commented afterwards about the culture has to change among the fans as well at Northwestern. Talk about tone deaf and more reason to hope for abject failure for this program.

1. Villanova- Someone has to be 1

Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Virginia (ACC) vs Gramb(SWAC)/Savanah(MEAC)

Villanova vs Penn (Ivy)/Nichols St(Sland)

Auburn (SEC) vs Wagner (NEC)

Villanova vs FGCU (Asun)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Duke vs UNCAshville (Bsouth)

Kansas vs Montana (Bsky)

Texas Tech (B12) vs Bucknell (Pat)

Michigan State (B1G) vs UCSB (Bwest)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Purdue vs N.Kentucky (Hor)

Cincinnati (AAC) vs Rider (MAAC)

North Carolina vs Charleston (Col)

Tennessee vs Belmont (OVC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Clemson vs ETSU (SoCon)

Ohio State vs South Dakota St (Summit)

Arizona (Pac12) vs Vermont (Aeast)

West Virginia vs Louisiana (Sbelt)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Rhode Island (A10) vs Loyola (Mvalley)

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Buffalo (MAC)

Oklahoma vs Texas/NC State

Wichita State vs Nebraska/Kansas State

6 seed vs 11 seed

Michigan vs New Mexico St (WAC)

Miami vs UCLA

Florida State vs Middle Tenn (Cusa)

Creighton vs USC

7 seed vs 10 seed

Nevada (Mwest) vs Virginia Tech

Texas A&M vs Houston

Arizona State vs Providence

St. Mary's vs Arkansas

8 seed vs 9 seed

Missouri vs TCU

Seton Hall vs Alabama

Florida vs Louisville

Kentucky vs Butler

First Four Out

W. Kentucky

St. Bonaventure

Boise State

Maryland

Next Four Out

Oklahoma State

Marquette

Washington

Penn State

Also Considered

Baylor

Syracuse

BYU

Oregon

Utah

Notre Dame

Boston College

Mississippi St

Temple

Thursday Notes

Last Night Game Recap:

Providence 76, Villanova 71
Villanova losses another game and no longer seems like a lock for a one seed.  I still think they hang as the last #1 but Auburn is quickly closing in right now

Last Night Bracket Movements:

Boise State and Syracuse fall out of the bracket.  North Carolina State and Nebraska replace them at the 12 seed.

Kentucky and Florida drop to 8 seeds after losses.  Florida State jumps up after upsetting Clemson

SMU is no longer considered.

Today’s Game of the Night:

Arizona vs Arizona State

The battle in the desert should give some clarity to the pecking order in the Pac 14

Today’s Bubble Games:

Temple (NF) vs Wichita State (5)

Cincinnati (2) vs Houston (10)

Utah (AC) vs Washington (FF)

Oregon (AC) vs USC (11)

Oregon State (-) vs UCLA (11)

Wednesday Notes

Last Night Game Recap:

Texas Tech 88, Oklahoma 78
Oklahoma drops another game as Texas Tech continues their march towards a #1 seed. Oklahoma, who was a 1 seed a couple weeks ago is now probably a 5 or 6.

Last Night Bracket Movements:

Butler drops a seed after being upset by Georgetown

Missouri switches spots with Texas A&M after beating them

Today’s Game of the Night:

Kentucky vs Auburn

Kentucky’s fall is similar to Oklahoma’s.  This is a huge game for them to right their ship.  I hope somehow both teams lose

Today’s Bubble Games:

Kansas State (2) vs Oklahoma State (NF)

North Carolina State (FF) vs Syracuse (12)

Nevada (7) vs Boise State (12)

Nevada Wolfpack

Inside the top 20 of KenPom at 19 is Nevada from the Mountain West. Coach Eric Musselman has been building towards this since he got there and this is a team that can make some noise next month.

Nevada is an efficient offensive team, 12th best in the nation. They have an effective fg% of 54.8, 35th best. This is built largely by shooting 39.6% from 3 and get 35% of their scoring from 3. They’re a high volume shooting team from 3. They’ve basically adopted an NBA style. They get to the line a lot as well and make their free throws. On top of that, they’re very stingy protecting the ball. The Wolfpack has a TO% of 14.6%, 5th best in the nation. They’re a weak rebounding team on the offensive glass but they make up for that with how efficient they are.

They’re a middling defensive team, checking in at 100 in defensive efficiency. Teams don’t shoot well from 3 against them, part luck and opponents, but worth noting as they enter March. The rest of their numbers scream average.

Brian has them on the 8/9 line. They’d be a tempting second round upset choice should they draw someone like Cincinnati or Xavier or Texas Tech in those scenarios. As we know, the Mountain West is a shell of itself but it has gotten better. Nevada also owns a win over Rhode Island who has been hovering near the top 4 seed-line.

There is a large concern for Nevada and that’s the health of their best player, Caleb Martin. Martin was thought lost for an indefinite amount of time with a lisfranc injury but was back against San Diego State this past Saturday. Without him, Nevada probably isn’t a real threat. That said, 6’7” F Jordan Caroline is a dude. The forward averages 17 and 9 a game. They also get significant contributions from junior Cody Martin (Caleb’s twin brother) and Purdue transfer, SR. Kendall Stephens.

They travel to Boise tonight and since I wrote about them, they’ll probably lose but this is a legit team. This is a team no one will want to potentially see in the round of 32. If Caleb Martin is healthy, Nevada will be capable of breaking some hearts and brackets next month. 

Tuesday Notes

Last Night Game Recap:

Baylor 74, Texas 73, 2OT
Texas is slowly sliding down the bracket and is currently right on the 11/12 seed line.  They may not be on the of the last 4 in but they are probably 5 or 6 at this point.  Not much room for error now.  Baylor, with wins against Kansas and Texas in the past 3 days are on the Also Considered list now

Last Night Bracket Movements:

We mentioned Texas already; other than that there wasn’t much on “Big” Monday.

Today’s Game of the Night:

Oklahoma at Texas Tech

Another Big 12 big game. Texas Tech has been slowly moving towards a 1 seed while Oklahoma, who was a 1 seed for a while, is slowly moving away from one.  They are currently a 4.

Today’s Bubble Games:

Arkansas (10) vs Mississippi (-)

Maryland (NF) vs Nebraska (FF)

St. Bonaventure (FF) vs LaSalle (-)

LSA (-) vs Alabama (9)

Monday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Virginia (ACC) vs Gramb(SWAC)/Savanah(MEAC)

Purdue (B1G) vs Penn (Ivy)/Nichols St(Sland)

Xavier (Beast) vs Wagner (NEC)

Purdue (B1G) vs FGCU (Asun)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Auburn (SEC) vs UNCAshville (Bsouth)

Cincinnati (AAC) vs Montana (Bsky)

Duke vs Bucknell (Pat)

Kansas vs UCSB (Bwest)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Texas Tech (B12) vs N.Kentucky (Hor)

Michigan State vs Rider (MAAC)

Clemson vs Charleston (Col)

North Carolina vs Belmont (OVC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Ohio State vs ETSU (SoCon)

Tennessee vs South Dakota St (Summit)

Oklahoma vs Vermont (Aeast)

Arizona (Pac12) vs Louisiana (Sbelt)

5 seed vs 12 seed

West Virginia vs Loyola (Mvalley)

Rhode Island (A10) vs Buffalo (MAC)

Gonzaga (WCC) vs UCLA/Boise State

Wichita State vs Syracuse/Kansas State

6 seed vs 11 seed

Michigan vs New Mexico St (WAC)

Arizona State vs USC

Florida vs Middle Tenn (Cusa)

Miami vs Houston

7 seed vs 10 seed

St. Mary's vs Texas

Kentucky vs Virginia Tech

Creighton vs Providence

Texas A&M vs Arkansas

8 seed vs 9 seed

Nevada (Mwest) vs Alabama

Seton Hall vs TCU

Florida State vs Louisville

Butler vs Missouri

First Four Out

Nebraska

North Carolina State

W. Kentucky

St. Bonaventure

Next Four Out

Oklahoma State

Maryland

Marquette

Washington

Also Considered

Baylor

SMU

BYU

Oregon

Colorado

Utah

Temple

Notre Dame

Boston College

Mississippi St

Penn State