After a solid 2-6 Sweet 16, to hell with KenPom:
South: 5. San Diego State vs 6. Creighton
All year, Creighton hovered in the magic KenPom zone as a profile of a national champ. Well, to hell with KenPom
San Diego State 66 Creighton 65
Midwest: 2. Texas vs. 5. Miami
As I was fake golfing last night, I overheard badger fans in the bay next to me talking about how they could have won it all. Idiots.
Texas 78 Miami 72
East: 3. Kansas State vs. 8. Florida Atlantic
When I was younger, I had this formula where I’d pick Final 4 participants based on history of what seed historically came out of regions. The East used to produce the most 1-seeds. Well, suck on that stupid, young Eric.
Kansas State had 5 turnovers against Michigan State. They’re 263rd in the nation in offensive turnover %. For all the talk of Izzo is March, I’d have figured out a way to force a team that turns it over a lot, to you know, turn it over.
Florida Atlantic took advantage of a Rick Barnes team. Whatever the reason is, Barnes coached teams loose in March because the offense breaks bad. I’ll say this, though, FAU is top-30 KenPom defense and offense. I think the committee owes it to teams like FAU more respect. I don’t care what team you are. 28-3 regular season record in a top-10 league deserves way more respect.
Amazing this is the regional final at MSG. Tickets are probably pretty easy to get. If I was there, I’d buy them because this could be a great game. KenPom likes FAU by 1. Guess it’s FAU 69 Kansas State 68
West: 3. Gonzaga vs. 4. UConn
UConn has come out of the West 3 of the 4 times they’ve won national championships. In 1999, they shattered Cinderella’s shoe. What does that mean? Nothing.
UConn’s demolition of Arkansas was as impressive as anything we’ve seen this tournament. They looked a lot like the Huskies of early season. It’s also a reminder to probably not overreact to a bad stretch of a season. If a team has a great, sustained stretch, barring injury, that’s what that team is capable of.
As for the Zags, I’d rather focus on Mick Cronin. At one point in the first half last night, Dan Bonner noticed Cronin telling his team to slow down as they were running all over the hapless Zag defense. That was the point I knew Gonzaga could win should they keep UCLA within distance in the first half. UCLA needed to bury Gonzaga like UConn buried Arkansas. Instead, Cronin was so concerned with playing within his system, he almost certainly lost the opportunity. His near future at UCLA with the guys he’s losing becomes interesting.
The Zags defense last night gets buried by UConn. Saturday is a new day, however. They also dropped 33 in the first half against a good UCLA defense which would be pretty damn good had they not given up 46. The 46 they scored in the 2nd half is even more impressive. The nation’s number 1 offense needs to do that again. It should be a thriller. I like UConn 80 Gonzaga 78
Thank you, Midwest region.
1. Houston vs. 5. Miami
Kelvin Sampson has done impressive work at Houston. Same with Jim Larranaga at Miami. Houston is a heavy 8-point Ken Pom favorite. Having the 8th best offense and 4th best defense will do that. Doesn’t hurt that Miami’s 108th ranked defense is a problem for the Hurricanes.
Miami’s offense on the other hand, is the 11th best KenPom offense. They’re not a fast-paced team, so Houston’s methodical style won’t bother them greatly. Miami has the nation’s 23rd best effective fg%. They shoot the ball well from 2 and 3, 35th and 39th respectively in the nation. However, Houston has the nation’s 2nd best defensive effective fg%.
Houston’s offense is efficient, but hardly dynamic. 71st I’m effective fg% is fine, 165th in 3pt% is ok. What sets them apart is their offensive rebounding % which is 4th best on the nation at 37%. They extend possessions to make up for what they may lack in explosiveness. While Miami is also a good offensive rebounding team, they’re just average on the defensive glass.
Miami has good guards and that’ll help neutralize Houston to an extent but the difference is Jarace Walker for the Cougars. Houston 63 Miami 58
2. Texas vs 3. Xavier
Xavier is back in the Sweet 16, as is Sean Miller. Rodney Terry has done a great job getting Texas here as well despite a turbulent December. This could be one of the better games of the Sweet 16.
Texas still profiles as a national title contender. They’re 15th and 10th in KenPom offense and defense respectively. They’re 5th overall. X is 15th overall but a 64th rated defense is the red flag in this game.
Xavier has two defensive deficiencies. They don’t force turnovers and teams shoot the 3 ball well against them. Texas isn’t a great 3-point shooting team, however, and they don’t turn it over much.
On the defensive side of things, Texas force a lot of turnovers and has the nation’s 57th best defensive effective fg%. They do not rebound well, 219th on defensive boards and they put teams on the line. They’re 240th in FTA/FGA. X doesn’t necessarily do those things great on offense but they do them well enough. They’re also the 3rd best 3-point shooting team in the nation.
I had Texas in the Final 4 but I sort of like X here. Xavier 81 Texas 78
Good job, Arizona, Virginia, Missouri & Baylor.
1. Alabama vs. 5. San Diego State
Good to see SDSU make a Sweet 16. We forget how good they were in 2020. They’re also real good this year. While Alabama is 2 in KenPom, SDSU is 14. They’re a legit Sweet 16 team. Can they win?
There’s a path to victory. They have the 4th best 3-point defense in the nation. Teams only shoot 28.7% from deep. Bama loves shooting the 3. They’re 8th in attempts in 3PA/FGA. While they shoot a lot, they’re middle of the road in overall 3-point shooting %. It’ll be imperative the Aztecs keep the Tide off the offensive glass. SDSU is 54th in defensive rebounding %. That’s strong.
The concern for the Aztecs is the offense is prone to rock fighting. 70th in KenPom, they’re taking on the nation’s 3rd best defense. Teams don’t shoot well typically against Alabama as evidenced by the fact they’re 3rd in 3pt fg% and 1st in 2pt fg% defense. Yeah, that’s a red flag for me for San Diego State.
San Diego State will need to muck it up but I think Alabama is too powerful for them and the offensive droughts SDSU have has me at Alabama 71 San Diego State 58
6. Creighton vs. 15. Princeton
So, Princeton was certainly underseeded by the committee. The Ivy is 12th in KenPom conference rankings with a positive Adjusted EM, granted, small at +1.00. Losses to Delaware and Dartmouth crushed their net numbers. Still, let this be a lesson. An Ivy as a 15 should send off alarm bells in the future.
As for the game itself, Creighton is a heavy metrics favorite. Despite a wonky Big East season, they’re 12th in KenPom with the 23rd best offense and 13th best defense. Those are borderline national championship numbers and certainly Final Four good.
I’m trying to find something for Princeton that says they can win this game and all I got is, they just beat Arizona and Missouri, throw the numbers out. That said, I think Creighton is better than those two teams. One thing to keep in the back of your mind is, rumors are heavily circulating Gregg McDermott could be the next guy at Notre Dame. The team and him will have to answer those questions. Still, I’ll take Creighton 75 Princeton 60
South Region
1 Alabama over 6 Creighton
East Region
1 Duke over 2 Marquette
Midwest Region
1 Houston over 3 Xavier
West Region
3 Gonzaga over 4 Connecticut
Final Four
Duke over Alabama
Gonzaga over Houston
Final
Duke over Gonzaga
1. Tennessee
2. Purdue
3. Marquette
4. Memphis
5. Duke
6. Kansas State
7. FAU
8. Kentucky
9. Michigan State
10. USC
So, woof? Tennessee lost Zak Zeigler, so falling to a 4 isn’t a surprise. They still have the KenPom number 2 defense, but, yeah.
You have 3 KenPom top 12 teams but one of which is compromised. Purdue has no excuses not go make the Final 4. That said, Duke is surging and Marquette hasn’t lost since early February. And frankly, Purdue isn’tgetting a break from whoever wins the 8/9.
Worth noting a potential Hauser Bowl in round two. Bitter Marquette fans are torn going against their wronged prince.
Oral Roberts can score. And they don’t turn it over. Methinks some sweating awaits Brian. After that though, I love their path. It’s them or Marquette and I’m picking Duke
1. Houston
2. Texas
3. Xavier
4. Iowa State
5. Texas A&M
6. Auburn
7. Indiana
8. Iowa
9. Penn State
10. Miami
Yes, Miami is way overseeded. They should be the 5-seed most vulnerable to an upset. They have an injury concern and are terrible defensively. A&M is a sneaky tough matchup for Texas in a potential round 2 matchup and will be super fun.
The question is how healthy is Houston? Sounds like Sasser will be good to go but if he isn’t, the Cougars are vulnerable beginning in round two.
A Houston-Texas regional final is spicy and what I expect. Overall, not a great region.
The Pick is Texas
1. Alabama
2. Arizona
3. Creighton
4. San Diego State
5. West Virginia
6. Utah State
7. Maryland
8. Virginia
9. Missouri
The South is the region of mystery. A lot of KenPom teams that were seeded much lower than their analytics would seed them. No arguments to be made, though.
Reality is, this region could get wonky but I think it’s between Alabama and Arizona. The 4 & 5 seeds are definitely vulnerable here. Furman can beat Virginia and SDSU has to travel to Orlando to play Charleston. The non power 5 got screwed.
No storyline matchups in this region either. Boring
The Pick is Alabama
Just fit Princeton into the bracket. I don't think the last two games will matter much.
I think its going to come down to Arizona State or Nevada for the final spot but the committee could surprise and leave out Rutgers or Pittsburgh.
Ivy - Yale vs Princeton
Pick - Yale
A-10 - VCU vs Dayton
Pick - Dayton
SEC - Alabama vs Texas A&M
Pick - Alabama
American - Houston vs Memphis
Pick - Memphis
Big 10 - Penn State vs Purdue
Pick - Penn State
A new Bracket will be out later but first glance this morning tells me the bubble is all but settled. There's a chance of some bid stealers but the only team who can win today and lose tomorrow and possibly make the tournament is Vanderbilt.
Reviewing one last time before posting....
America East: No. 2 UMass-Lowell vs. No.1 Vermont
Pick – No.1 Vermont.
MEAC: No. 3 Norfolk State vs. No. 1 Howard
Pick – No. 3 Norfolk State
SWAC: No. 8 Texas Southern vs. No. 2 Grambling
Pick – No. 2 Grambling
Big 12: No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 1 Texas
Pick – No. 2 Kansas
Mountain West: No. 3 Utah State vs. No. 1 San Diego State
Pick – No. 3 Utah State
Big East: No. 2 Xavier vs. No. 1 Marquette
Pick – No. 2 Xavier
MAAC: No. 11 Marust vs. No. 1 Iona
Pick – No. 1 Iona
MAC: No. 2 Kent State vs. No. 1 Toledo
Pick – No. 2 Kent State
ACC: No. 4 Duke vs. No. 2 Virginia
Pick – No.4 Duke
Conference USA: No. 3 UAB vs. No. 1 FAU
Pick – No. 3 UAB
Big West: No. 4 Cal State-Fullerton vs. No. 2 UC-Santa Barbara
Pick – No. 4 Cal State-Fullerton
Pac-12: No. 2 Arizona vs. No.1 UCLA
Pick – No. 1 UCLA
WAC: No. 5 Grand Canyon vs. No. 3 Southern Utah
Pick – No. 3 Southern Utah
Penn State vs Illinois – PSU is an 11 seed and more than likely need today to be safe
Arkansas vs Auburn – I would guess both are in but if one team blows out the other there may be questions.
Oklahoma State vs Texas – State is my last team in right now. It’s not a bad loss but with bid stealers coming I wouldn’t want to be one of the last 2-3 in by Saturday
North Carolina vs Virginia – Can we make it so both teams lose? UNC still needs to win this game to be in.
Boise State vs UNLV – this would be a bad loss for Boise and they shouldn’t risk it at this point
Louisiana Tech vs North Texas – Conference Tournament Title game or bust for sure for the Mean Green
NC State vs Clemson – the 6 seed is safe but 3 seeded Clemson needs to win 2 to be in.
Arizona State vs USC – ASU needs the win while USC could get in with a loss here
New Mexico vs Utah State – This, like Rutgers vs Michigan is a loser is out game.Wake Forest is official out. Looks like Michigan will join Wisconsin in the NIT.
Rutgers is looking good for a last 4 in.
Congratulations to Texas A&M-CC, Colgate, and Montana State on punching their tickets to the Big Dance. Auto Bids are done for a couple days so we focus on Bubble Teams going forward.
Teams that had a good day:
Wake Forest – hung on to their slim hopes of a at-large by
sending Jim Boeheim into retirement.
Pittsburgh – I think they did enough for an at-large even if
they get blown out by Duke today.
North Carolina – Crushed Boston College and now comes the
question whether they need to win today or if this was enough. I lean towards win today.
West Virginia – should be locked in after beating Texas Tech
New Mexico – slim hopes are alive and there are plenty of Q1
wins to have in the Mountain West tournament.
Oklahoma State – they probably took Wisconsin’s bid with
last nights win. Can they keep it?
NC State – dancing, that’s a lock
Arizona State – hanging on to that dream. Need at least one more win, maybe two.
Teams that had a bad day:
Seton Hall – probably didn’t have a chance at an at-large
anyway but now there is no chance.
Wisconsin – I guess they proved what we all thought; they
weren’t a tournament team anyway. Lost
by 8 but it wasn’t close all game. Their
NET is not good enough for an at-large so they will fall out today.
Thursday
MAC #1 Seed - Toledo
Pick - #3 Akron
American #1 Seed – Houston
Pick - #1 Houston
Saturday
Ivy #1 Seed - Yale
Pick - #1 Yale
The American Athletic Conference tournament kicks-off tomorrow live from Fort Worth, TX. The 1-seed is Houston who is 1 in just about everything. They can win it all and stuff.
Not much else to see here. Memphis should be in. Outside that, the league needs a bid thief. The most likely candidates are UCF, 62nd in KenPom, Cincinnati, 65th in KenPom or Tulane, 99th in KenPom. Temple was playing well but lost 6 of 8.
Houston is the pick but wouldn’t mind seeing someone steal a bid here
Ohio State vs Wisconsin – Huge bubble game to start the night. Wisconsin has a barely good enough resume as is with a Net in the 70s. A loss here dooms them out. A win might be enough to lock them in.
Boston College vs North Carolina – Currently out, UNC needs
this one and probably the next one as well. Boy, it would be a shame….
Texas Tech vs West Virginia – West Virginia is currently a
10 seed and their computer numbers would say they are safe. Still one more win wouldn’t hurt
Wyoming vs New Mexico – The Lobos have fallen apart and now
are just an Also Considered. They need a
deep run to leap past 8+ teams
Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State – Okie State is my first team
out. A loss here and they remain
out. It’s a tough road but it has to
start tonight.
Virginia Tech vs North Carolina State – NC State may not be
as safe as people think. Most have them
as a 9 seed and their numbers don’t jump out at you in the mid 40s. More than likely safe but win here and you
are in.
Wake Forest vs Syracuse – Wake is way off the bubble but with a run could get back on it. Syracuse is out
Georgia Tech vs Pittsburgh – Pitt is not as safe as you would think. The computer numbers are not good and this would be a bad loss. Currently a 9 seed.
Depaul vs Seton Hall – The Hall is in the same situation as
Wake Forest. Continue to win and hope.
Southland: #1 Texas A&M-CC vs #2 Northwestern St
Pick - #2 Northwestern St
Patriot: #1 Colgate vs #6 Lafayette
Pick - #1 Colgate
Big Sky: #2 Montana State vs #9 Northern Arizona
Pick #2 Montana State
Mountain West
The Mountain West returns to Las Vegas for their conference tournament. In his last bracket, Brian had 4 teams in the tournament. Two of them were last 4 in, so buckle up.
The league is 6th best in KenPom, with conference champ San Diego State up to 15 overall. Utah State is 23 and Boise State is 29. Nevada checks in at 39.
The early season darling was New Mexico who ended up 8-10 in conference play and need to win the tournament to make the dance. If someone from this league steals a bid, it’ll likely be from one of their brethren. The pick is San Diego St., however, so only the drama of Sunday night.
SEC
The SEC is playing its tournament in Nashville. If you’re there, get yourself some delicious Nelson Brothers bourbon. The 1-seed is Alabama. The 2-seed is Texas A&M. Bama had the leagues best offense and defense during league play.
Picking a winner here is another adventure. Bama is clearly the best team but might be distracted. A&M is the 4th best KenPom team, behind Kentucky and Arkansas. Mississippi State and Vandy need wins.
I’m taking Vandy to shock the world and steal a bid. They won 8 of their last 9 and it’s a “home game” or something.
Congrats to Louisiana and Furman on locking up bids last night. We have 5 going out tonight as well as 5 more tournaments starting.
MAAC #1 Seed - Iona
Pick - #1 Iona
ACC#1 Seed - Miami
Pick - #4 Duke
Big West - #1 Seed - UC-Irvine
Pick - #4 CS-Fullerton
WAC #1 Seed - Sam Houston St
Pick - #2 Utah Valley
A-10 - #1 Seed - VCU
Pick - #4 St. Louis
Congrats to SEMO, Kennesaw St, Drake, FDU, and UNC-Ashville on grabbing bids this weekend. FDU still plays on Tuesday but they have the bid since Merrimack is ineligible.
Here are the bids for tonight. No conference start today but we are down to 7 days of basketball.
SoCon - #1 Furman vs #7 Chattanooga
Pick - #1 Furman
SunBelt - #2 Louisiana vs #8 South Alabam
Pick - #2 Louisiana
Things get mad starting Tuesday as we have multiple leagues tip-off, some continuing and a few ending. Let’s look at the mid-majors as we’ll give the big boys a deeper look.
A-10
It’s kind of sad to include the A-10 in this but they’re the 12th best KenPom league, between the WAC & Sun Belt. The tournament will be played in Brooklyn and is a one-bid league in 2023.
VCU won the league and is 75th in KenPom. Runner-up Dayton is 72. They’re very close according to the analytic. No other team is top-100 in KenPom. St. Louis is close at 103 and has a talented roster. Despite that, they’re 5-5 in their last 10.
Fordham and Duquesne have had impressive seasons. It would be wild to see one of them win the tournament. I’ll take VCU.
Big West
The Big West tips Tuesday from Henderson, NV. The Big West may have one of the more entertaining tournaments this season. UC-Irvine is the 1-seed. The Anteaters are 100 in KenPom and have a win over Oregon.
The 2-seed, UC-Santa Barbara is 107 in KenPom. The 3-seed is UC-Riverside who is 144 in KenPom. The 4&5 seeds, UC-Fullerton and Hawaii, 117 and 126 in KenPom are the 4-5 game and either one can win this.
The pick is Irvine but this thing is wide open.
MAAC
Our friends in the northeast begin Tuesday live from Atlanatic City. Iona won the league going away and is 78th in KenPom and the proverbial team no one wants to see.
Only 2 other teams are top-200 KenPom. They are 2-seed Rider at 197 and 3-seed Quinnipiac at 171. Siena is the 4-seed at 203. I’ll argue it’s better for the league and the tournament for Iona to win and they’re the pick. That said, this league tends to produce some upsets, including St. Peter’s last year.
WAC
The WAC has been good this year. As mentioned earlier, it’s better than the A-10. They have 2 top-100 KenPom teams. 1-seed Utah Valley is 79 in KenPom. They own wins over Oregon and BYU. They also have a win over 2-seed Sam Houston St. in their only matchup.
Sam Houston State is 66 in KenPom with the nation’s 15th best defense. Southern Utah is 102 in KenPom. They split with the other two teams. Grand Canyon is 120 in KenPom and Stephen F. Austin is 129.
Another late night league, like the Big West, this tournament ought to be a lot of fun. I’ll take Sam Houston State
Congrats to SEMO on locking up the first bid of the year last night in the Ohio Valley. 3 More bids come out today. We will hit those then get bubbly and then highlight today's games.
Big South - #1 UNC-Ashville vs #7 Campbell
Pick - Campbell
Missouri Valley - #1 Bradley vs #2 Drake
Pick - Drake
Atlantic Sun - #1 Kennesaw St vs #2 Liberty
Pick - Liberty
There are currently a plethora of Wisconsin cager fans who want Greg Gard sent to the moon via cannon. As of this afternoon, the Badgers are either one of the last teams in the tournament or one of the first out. It’s bubble season in Madison a year after sharing a Big Ten title.
So, what happened? The simple answer is they lost a lottery pick in Johnny Davis. It isn’t easy to replace those but Davis was also an inefficient player at times and high usage player. They probably miss Brad Davison more, who was more efficient.
The big drop off has come from Tyler Wahl who has battled injuries this year. Last year, he had an ORtg of 106.8 this year and it’s 89.1 this year. His usage has skyrocketed and his offense has cratered overall. Chucky Hepburn gets a lot criticism and his end of game decision making isn’t great, but he’s pretty much the same player as he was last year.
The offense just isn’t good this year. It’s 148th in KenPom after being 62nd last year. They still don’t turn it over. The effective fg% this year is 262nd in the nation, actually better than last year’s 276th. They’re shooting 35.7% from 3 this year versus 30.6% last year. They’re worse on 2pt shooting. What’s stunning is the 66.7% FT shooting, 323 in the nation.
15-5 in 5 point games last year, they’re 9-8 in such games this year. Basically, last year, they had luck on their side.
As of today, most of the roster is scheduled to be back. Don’t count on it. They’ll be active in the transfer portal, coming and going. Barring a big run in the tournament, next year is a vital year for the future of Greg Gard at UW-Madison
The Southland tips-off tomorrow from Lake Charles, Louisiana. Texas A&M-Chorpus Christi won the regular season title and is the only top-200 KenPom team. They’ve won 10 out of 11 and are the pick.
New Mexico took another loss and they are definitely on the wring side of the bubble.
The first bid goes out later tonight and there are plenty of bubble games. Hope to update through the day.
Ohio Valley
#2 Tenn Tech vs #5 SE Missouri St
The winner is a 16 seed at best and I may invent a 17 seed if it's SE Missouri. The pick is Tennessee Tech
Only one bubble game tonight and that is New Mexico at Colorado State. The Lobos need this.
Conference Tournaments kicking off today:
Losers on the night include Michigan, Rutgers, Arizona State, USC, and Wisconsin.
I think one of Michigan or Wisconsin stays in the bracket after analysis is done but nobody is making a big push for the spots vacated by bottom team losing. Of the last 7 teams in my bracket Monday, 5 of them (Wis, Mich, USC, Auburn, and Arkansas) lost. Of the 1st 7 out in the same time frame only Miss St, Penn St, Utah St, and New Mexico won. The problem for those teams is that only Miss St was probably only win out of moving in. The rest, with the exception of Utah St, who I will take a closer look at, are 2 wins out.
Winners on the night include FAU, Memphis, and North Texas. The first 2 are locks at this point but North Texas needs to win out to the conference tournament final.
More posts to come today including bubble games today, conference tournament predictions, and a new bracket. With the first bids coming tomorrow the analysis on the bracket goes from the normal form to the full form with Q1-Q4 wins, NET, KenPom, etc. It's an exciting time!
Michigan is in a must win game at Illinois. They need to keep the momentum and this would be a great win. We will see if Jett Howard plays.
FAU is at Rice and currently has the auto-bid. Their resume is at-large worthy but any loss hurts
North Texas hosts Middle Tenn St and they may not have a chance anyway but a loss kills them.
Arizona State is at UCLA and they need to build off the buzzer beater against Arizona. Can't have a let down tonight.
Purdue is at Wisconsin and boy do the Badgers need this one. A loss and Michigan win and they flip in and out.
Arizona is at USC and I think USC is probably safe but this would be nice for the old resume.
Missouri Valley - #1 Seed: Bradley
Pick – #2 Drake
West Coast - #1 Seed: Gonzaga
Pick - #1 Gonzaga
We were even on bubble games yesterday. Pittsburgh took a bad loss at Notre Dame and Kentucky was "Bad Kentucky" again and lost to Vanderbilt.
On the positive side Penn State got a Quad 1 win over Northwestern while Utah State clung on to hope with a win over UNLV.
Conference Previews to come later...
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky - The Wildcats seem safe at this point but this would be a bad loss.
Penn State @ Northwestern - PSU is running out of chances to get good wins. This would be a good win.
Utah State @ UNLV - Utah State keeps hanging around the Next Four out but have a solid resume. This game would help a little, but a loss would hurt a lot.
Ohio Valley - #1 Seed: Morehead State
Pick – #1 Morehead State
Big South - #1 Seed: UNC-Ashville
Pick - #3 Longwood
Northeast - #1 Seed: Merrimack***
Pick – #4 Sacred Heart
Lots of great action last night including Iowa crushing Indiana and Duke outlasting North Carolina State. I'm biased but I need to take a longer look at this Duke team. Them seem to be getting better as their entire team is finally completely healthy for a good 10 game stretch. I think their only loss with a full roster (In a weaker ACC) is the joke that was Virginia.
Bubble Winners last night:
Bubble Losers last night:
