If anything, this ought to be a close game. Loyola has a buzzer beater under its belt this tournament and Nevada has lead less than 5 minutes of real game time through 85 minutes of play.
Nevada has the 6th best offense and Loyola is 27th on defense. Nevada plays mediocre defense while Loyola is ok on offense. In two games, Loyola has played 58 and 62 possession games. That’s well below their season average. Nevada likes to play faster than that. Nevada played a slower game against Cincinnati and found a way to win. It’s not a sound strategy for them.
Both of these teams prove how important luck is in March. That’s not a criticism. I had Nevada in the Elite 8 even before the bracket broke this way. Both are very good teams but even good teams need some luck in a single-elimination format. I’m picking this on pure hunch and I think it goes this way:
Nevada 74 Loyola 66
Kentucky vs. Kansas State
The NCAA and Atlanta ought to rub a hunchback getting Kentucky to this regional. No offense to Buffalo or even Arizona but without Kentucky, attendance might have been pretty bleak.
As for the game, Kentucky is the favorite. UK is now 20th and 23rd in offense and defense in KenPom. Kansas State is 76th and 20th. Kansas State has been very impressive on defense through two games. They handled a good offensive squad in Creighton with ease. They brought UMBC back to earth in a rock fight. They’ll want to do the same to UK.
There’s little question Kentucky will have more talent on the court. One advantage Kentucky should have is on the boards and if the game is a rock fight, that should be the difference. Also, Kansas State fouls a lot and Kentucky lives at the line.
Kentucky 65 Kansas State 56
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