Monday, February 16, 2015

Pony Express

The class of the American Athletic Conference appears to be the soon-to-be-on probation SMU Mustangs. Barring a complete collapse, Larry Brown will be back in the NCAA tournament.

They are currently 22nd overall in KenPom, 37th in AdjustedO and 40th in AdjustedD. 

Offensively, they have an effective fg% of 53.5%, 32nd in the nation. They shoot 36% from 3 and 53.2% from 2. They're a very good offensive rebounding team, getting 36.9% of misses, 22nd best. They don't protect the ball. They're 251st in turnover %. They do share the ball, though. They're 12th in the nation in A/FgM. 

Opponents shoot 45.1% against them. That's 38th best effective fg% against. Teams only shoot 43% from 2. They're a little weaker on the defensive glass, ranking 109th in the nation. 

They lost stud guard Keith Frazier earlier  in the season but Jr. Nic Moore has more than filled the bill. He shoots 45% from 3, scoring 14.4ppg and averaged 5.4 assists per game. Markus Kennedy provides girth and 12 & 8 in the middle. Joining him in the paint is Yanick Moreira. Moreira gives them 12 & 7 and is a shot-blocking threat.

Brian has them as a 6-seed. I suspect they'll move up the seed line but their resume isn't that impressive. Best non-conference win is probably Michigan but that's looked less impressive as the season has gone along. 

They probably have a ceiling as a Sweet 16 team. They've played better in conference after a so-so start but the strength of the American is in doubt.

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