Afternoon Bubble

Not that LSU nor Mississippi were on the bubble but neither can afford a losing streak.  Today LSU was able to hold court at home over Ole Miss.
Dayton got a huge win over VCU and although I wouldn't necessarily call them a lock, they are close.
Xavier lost a great chance to be a lock but Nova came back huge in the second half to shut them down.
Miami lost to UNC and probably needs to win out and take a couple games in the ACC Tournament to get in.

Right now Texas is playing Kansas close.  It's early but if they lose they are probably out and replaced by Davidson, should they beat George Washington tonight.

Early Saturday Bubble Update

The big winners so far are St. John's and Georgia who were pretty safe to begin with.  Rhode Island also hangs on to their slim hopes with a road win over LaSalle.

The only loser so far is North Carolina State who lost at Boston College.   Not sure if it's enough to drop them out but it's a bad loss nonetheless.

The Forgotten Year: 1995, A Look Back at A Wild Opening Weekend

The 1995 Tournament was an odd tournament for myself. It was the first tournament I watched away from the guys I grew up with watching the tournament and falling in love with March Madness. It would also be the last where I was unemployed and unencumbered from sneaking peaks and doing what I could to get updates.

It was also the first and only tournament of my March Madness life that didn't include Duke. Duke had amazingly made every Final Four from 1986-1994 except in 1987 & 1993. They had also played in 5 National title games, a run unmatched since. It was...A BRAVE NEW WORLD.

East Region, Thursday

8. St. Louis vs. 9. Minnesota- I can't recall if this was on of the openers or one of the later day games but I had a vested interest in cheering against everything Minnesota because I'm petty and hated others joy. Things started off well enough as the Billikens jumped out early on the Gophers, leading 31-14. Minnesota chipped away and tied the game after Townsend Orr stole a pass and fired a pass to the infamous Chad Kolander to tie the game and send it into overtime. St. Louis held a 64-61 lead with 13 seconds left and the Gophers had the ball. They managed to get of 4 3 attempts, missing all 4. Townsend Orr took 3 of them and Voshon Lenard missed the other. It'd be a precursor for a miserable showing by the Big Ten.

5. Alabama vs. 12. Penn- Alabama survived in overtime against Penn. I note this game because it went to overtime and Alabama scored 24 points in 5 minutes. Or a Virginia half in today's game of "great basketball".

3. Villanova vs. 14. Old Dominion- This was a night game that would end up being one of the best tournament games ever. ODU played the game without Odell Hodge, their best player. Petey Sessoms would step up and make big play after big play. The Monachs lead most of the game, jumping all over the Wildcats. They lead 49-40 before Villanova went on a 16-3 run looking to avoid the upset. Up 58-55 with the ball and less than a minute left, Villanova star Kerry Kittles was called for a charge. Petey Sessoms attempted a 3 with 19 seconds left and was fouled b Jason Lawson. Sessoms hit all 3 and Lawson would miss a game winning shot, sending the game into overtime. Sessoms would make 2 more free throws in overtime to tie the game with 25 seconds left and ODU would tie up Alvin Williams before he could get a potential game winner off. ODU would calmly hit another pair of free throws before Villanova's last possession of double overtime to send it to a 3rd. ODU would ice the game after a Sessoms block and making a layup and getting fouled on the ensuing breakout. ODU would win 89-81.

The eventual winner out of the East would be Oklahoma State, the 4-seed. Big Country Bryant Reeves would go through Wake Forest and Tim Duncan and UMass and Marcus Camby.

Southeast Region

4. Oklahoma vs. 13. Manhattan- Most people won't remember this, but Manhattan and Coach Fran Fraschilla were an at-large bid out of the MAAC that year. It was pretty controversial at the time, beating out teams such as Iowa and Georgia Tech. The Jaspers would justify their selection by handling the Sooners.

3. Michigan State vs. 14. Weber State- This game was played on Friday while the previous game was played on Thursday. This game sticks with me for a few reasons. I filled out two brackets this year. One had an All-Big East Final 4 which was engulfed in flames after the Villanova fiasco and in another, I had Michigan State winning it all. I called it the McGuire/Manning Corollary, thinking Michigan State would make a run for the retiring Jud Heathcote while ridingthe Senior play of Shawn Respert. Shockingly, I was wrong. Weber State would outscore Sparty by 16 in the 2nd half lead by Ruben Nemhard's 27. Respert would have 28 but it wasn't enough and like that, the Izzo era was upon an unsuspecting nation. Looking back, the Big East scenario was so far fetched I was obviously really drunk picking that one.

6. Georgetown vs. 14. Weber State- I probably picked an All-Big East Final 4 expecting some great play from Allen Iverson, the Hoyas super frosh. In this game, he was an Iverson-esque, 6-20 from the field, but would play a pivotal part in the outcome. Georgetown jumped out to an early lead in this game only to see the Smokey Joe's tie it up at 51 with less than 10 seconds left and Ruben Nemhard going to the line to give them the lead. Nemhard, a 77% FT-shooter missed the front end and the Hoyas junkyard dog forward, Jerome Williams snagged the rebound and passed to Iverson who raced up the court and took an off-balance shot that missed everything. Trailing the play and getting in position to rebound was Hoyas Sr. and captain, Don Reid who in one move, caught the air ball and layed in the winner over his shoulder as time expired and give Georgetown the win. We nicknamed Weber State the Smokey Joe's that week and they'll always be the Smokey Joe's to me.

North Carolina eventually worked their way to the Final 4 out of the Southeast as the 2-seed.

Midwest Region

5. Arizona vs. 12. Miami (OH)- One year earlier, Arizona had done the unthinkable. They avoided a catastrophic 1st Round upset and made the Final 4. Well, they remembered who they were on this day as Miami (OH) and Head Coach Herb Sendek upset the Wildcats, 71-62 lead by Devin Davis' 24 points.

8. Michigan vs. 9. Western Kentucky- This marked the end of an era at Michigan. Ray Jackson and Jimmy King would be playing their last game as Wolverines. That meant no members of the Fab 5 would be left at Ann Arbor, having declared early or exhausted their eligibility. For most of the game, it looked like the Fab 5 would live on but Michigan would squander a 49-34 lead in the final 8 minutes of the game. With 9 seconds left, Western Kentucky's Michael Fraliex drilled a 3 to send the game into overtime. The Hilltopppers scored the first 10 points of overtime and the Fab 5 ceased to exist.

3. Purdue vs. 14. UWGB- In a defensive slug fest, Purdue outlasted the Phoenix, 49-48. After 2 3-seeds had been eliminated, it was clear Purdue wouldn't have a cakewalk over the Phoenix. UWGB had beaten Jason Kidd and Cal a year earlier and were coached by legendary basketball hater, Dick Bennett. Late in the game, Cuonzo Martin of Purdue took a charge from the Phoenix Gary Grzesk and made both free throws to give the Boilermakers the lead. UWGB's Eric Jackson missed a shot at the buzzer and the Boilers became the only team from the Big Ten to escape the 1st Round. This was Bennett's last game at UWGB. He left to invent the modern game of basketball at Wisconsin.

2. Arkansas vs. 15. Texas Southern- One year earlier, on their way to winning a National Title, the Razorbacks pummeled Texas Southern by 66. 66 points! In this game, Arkansas hung on by the skin of their teeth as Texas Southern missed a FT with 6 seconds left that would have tied the game. The final score was 79-78.

4. Virginia vs. 12. Miami (OH)- Riding the momentum of the upset win over Arizona, Miami jumped out to a halftime lead over the Cavaliers. The game would eventually go to overtime where Virginia pulled away for a 60-54 victory. The run by Miami propelled Herb Sendek to NC State where he lived a life on the bubble before bolting for Arizona State. Junior Burroughs scored 28 for the Cavaliers. Those Virginia teams were damn good.

6. Memphis vs. 3. Purdue- Purdue carried the burden of the last remaining Big Ten team in the tournament. They were not up to the task as they lost late to Memphis. David Vaughn of Memphis would make a tip-in in the final seconds and would steal the Boilermaker in-bounds pass, thwarting any potential miracle, icing the Memphis 75-73 win. No Big Ten team made it to the second weekend.

2. Arkansas vs. 7. Syracuse- I have to admit a lot of what happened in this region is sketchy in my memory, this game being a big one. I suspect it's because this was before multiple channel options. We were pretty much stuck to whatever game they gave us and I vaguely recall this one being up in the corner of the screen as we watched another game. For the life of me, I can't recall what was on against it. Anyway, Syracuse had this game won when Lawrence Moten called a TO they didn't have. Scotty Thurman hit the FT sending the game to overtime. Arkansas eventually prevailed, 96-94 in a thriller.

Arkansas came out of this region as the 2-seed, beating Memphis in overtime in the Sweet 16 and outlasting Virginia who defeated the 1-seed Kansas.

West Region

1. UCLA vs. 8. Missouri- The West would largely play out to script but still gave us a remarkable game, one of the best in tournament history. The Bruins entered the tournament the favorite. After years of flame outs, this was the team to get Jim Harrick over the hump. Failure was not an option. Then came Missouri. The Tigers jumped all over UCLA, leading 42-34 heading into overtime. It was the largest deficit UCLA had faced all year. UCLA battled back, taking the lead after eventual Tourney MOP, Ed O'Bannon made 4 consecutive free throws. Missouri steeled itself and took the lead with 4.8 seconds left on a shot by Julian Winfield. Years earlier, Danny Ainge of BYU had gone coast-to-coast to give BYU a win over Notre Dame. Harrick instructed Sr. PG Tyus Edney to do the same. He did just that. Edney streaked up the court, banking the winner in as the buzzer sounded. UCLA largely coasted to their first title in 20 years. 20 years later, that is their last.

The '95 Tournament was what makes March great. It had upsets, buzzer beaters and moments that last a lifetime. The Final 4 wasn't overly memorable. The Bruins handled Arkansas in the final after beating Oklahoma State. The Razorbacks gave themselves a chance at a repeat after downing UNC. All-in-all, the 1995 Tournament holds its own as one of the best.

Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Kentucky (SEC) vs St-FranNY(NEC)/TexSo(SWAC)

Virginia (ACC) vs Albany(Aeast)/Bucknell(Pat)

Gonzaga (WCC) vs NC-Central (MEAC)

Duke vs La-Monroe(Sbelt)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Wisconsin (B1G) vs New Mexico St(WAC)

Villanova (Beast) vs FGCU (Asun)

Arizona (P12) vs S.Dakota St(Summit)

Kansas (B12) vs High Point (Bsouth)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Maryland vs William&Mary(Col)

Oklahoma vs UC-Davis (Bwest)

Baylor vs Murray State (OVC)

Iowa State vs E.Washington (Bsky)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Northern Iowa vs Louisiana Tech(Cusa)

Utah vs SFA (Sland)

Wichita St (Valley) vs Valparasio(Horizon)

Notre Dame vs C.Michigan (MAC)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Louisville vs Wofford (SoCon)

Arkansas vs Harvard (Ivy)

North Carolina vs Iona (MAAC)

West Virginia vs Boise State/UCLA

6 seed vs 11 seed

Butler vs Texas/Temple

Georgetown vs Purdue

SMU (AAC) vs Texas A&M

VCU (A10) vs Oregon

7 seed vs 10 seed

Providence vs St.John's

Xavier vs NC State

SD St(Mwest) vs Colorado State

Indiana vs LSU

8 seed vs 9 seed

Ohio State vs Cincinnati

Iowa vs Oklahoma State

Mississippi vs Georgia

Michigan St vs Dayton

First Four Out

Davidson

Stanford

Tulsa

Illinois

Next Four Out

Miami

BYU

Pittsburgh

Old Dominion

Also Considered

Rhode Island

Team Comparisons

The newest bracket will come out later today but for now I wanted to compare two teams to show you how out of wack bracketology can be. 

Team A has a 22-6 record and is listed between a 3-4 seed; Team B has a 18-11 record and is listed somewhere in the 8-10 seed list.  Let’s delve deeper into the numbers.

Team A has a 1-4 record against the top 25 rpi teams and 9-6 overall against the top 100. They also have a Non-Conference Strength of Schedule of 239 and a KenPom rank of 18

Team B has a 4-3 record against the top 25 rpi teams and 9-7 overall against the top 100. They also have a Non-Conference Strength of Schedule of 101 and a KenPom rank of 25.

How is it possible that there are a total of 6-7 seed lines between these teams?  The answer, Name recognition.  Team A is Louisville and Team B is Xavier.

Maryland

Last night, Maryland beat Wisconsin in a thrilling 55-possession game to improve to 23-5. Maryland, in its first season since running from the ACC with their tails between their legs, is a lock to make the tourney.

They're 34th in KenPom, 55th in AdjustedO and 46th in AdjustedD. They generate 25% of their scoring at the FT line. They have a FTA/FGA rate of 45.3%, 23rd in the land. On top of that, they shoot 75% from the line. That's 18th best. They shoot 37.4% from 3, 54th best in the land. They're weak on the offensive glass, only getting 28% of their misses, 276th overall.

On defense, like offense, they own the free throw line. Teams have a FTA/FGA rate of 26.7%, 9th best. They don't force many turnovers. They're 280th in defensive turnover %. Teams have an effective fg% of 46.4%. They do a decent job preventing 3's. Teams only shoot 32% from deep.

Xavier transfer Dez Wells is their most efficient player. Their best player is probably Fr. Melo Trimble. Trimble leads them in scoring and has been fantastic all year. Jake Layman gives them 13 & 6 and has an effective fg% of 55.7%. He's a very good player.

Maryland has good wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma State out of conference and lost to Virginia. They've navigated the B1G and will likely finish 2nd or 3rd. Given the nature of their ever changing roster, coach Mark Turgeon has done a great job this year.

The numbers show Maryland with a Sweet 16 ceiling. That would be a very good season for a team who has missed the tourney the last few years. I think they've earned a higher seed than how good they really are, so an upset on the opening weekend shouldn't surprise anyone either.

Davidson

Davidson has piqued my interest since before the season. After years of success in the SoCon, they moved into the A-10 as part of never ending realignment. Expectations had them pegged for last, instead, they're on the bubble and have been one of the more offensive minded teams in the land.

They're 37th in KenPom with the 9th best offense and 200th in defense. Like I said, offensive minded. They have an effective fg% of 55.9%(9th best) and 3rd lowest turnover%. They shoot 39% from 3 and generate 40% of their scoring from 3, the 6th highest overall. They do not get to the foul line at all. They're 342nd in FTA/FGA.

They don't do much great on defense as you might expect. Teams only shoot 28.7% from 3 but opponents shoot 51.7% from 2. It's about the offense.

As Brian noted, star So. Jack Gibbs missed a stretch earlier in conference play. Gibbs is 15th in ORtg., so he's kind of important. He shoots 42% from 3 and shoots a lot of them. While getting nearly 16 a game, he also adds 4.7apg and 4.1 boards per game. If you get the chance, he's worth a watch.

They have 3 other players that have attempted over 100 3's in Sr. Taylor Kalinski (41%), Jr. Brian Sullivan (35%) & Fr. Peyton Aldridge (42%). Kalinski scores 16.2ppg and adds 4.1apg and 5.9 boards per.

For what it's worth, they scored more points against Virginia than any other team in regulation, getting 72. Of course, they gave up 83 against Virginia but like I said, it's about the offense.

Fun team that has exceeded expectations. Would be a fun watch in March. Hoping they get a game or two.

Weekend updates

Only one team in the top 4 seeds lost but that game had an effect from the top to the bottom of the bracket.  Utah lost to Oregon and it's not only going to drop the Utes to a four seed but it will also be enough to get Oregon into the bracket.  Also entering the bracket will be Boise state due to their sneaky high RPI.

With those two coming in, who drops out you ask.  Miami and UCLA both had chances that we touched on but couldn't come through.  They weren't bad losses but missed opportunities.  They have a chance to right their ship by the end of the regular season.

In other notes temple continues their late season free fall.   Tulsa picked them apart and is starting to look like a serious at large candidate.  I wasn't big on them like others but I'm starting to pay attention.   They are one of the last teams out.  Joining that group is Davidson, who is in a curious situation.  They had a mid season losing strak to a couple bad teams but that was without one of their best players.  If they win two of those three games they are a no doubt at-large team.  I wonder if the committee will take that into consideration.

Huggy Bear and the Mountaineers

This past week, West Virginia beat Kansas at home and went into Stillwater and beat Oklahoma State cementing a bid to the NCAA Tournament. The Mountaineers are 24th in KenPom, 24th in AdjustedO and 50th in AdjustedD.

Speaking of numbers, they are fascinating for a 21-6 team. They have an effective fg% of 46.2% on offense. That's 288th in the land! They're 296th in 3-pt shooting, 242nd in 2-pt shooting and only shoot 65% from the line. That's 304th overall. They do gather offensive boards. They're offensive rebounding % is 40.7%, 6th best. Probably helps they have so many opportunities.

On defense, teams have an effective fg% of 52%, 287th overall. Teams shoot 36.4% from 3 (267th) and 50.8% from 2 (281st). That's horrible. They foul a lot, too. They're 348th in FTA/FGA. What they do on defense is force turnovers.  They have the highest defensive turnover %, 29.6% and the highest defensive steal %, 16,4%. That helps explain why their 21st in possessions per game.

Sr. Juwan Staten is their best player. He scores 14.8ppg and runs the offense. SOPH Devin Williams gives them 11 & 8. He is 5th in the land in defensive rebounding%.

West Virginia didn't do anything special out of conference, losing at home to LSU while beating UConn & NC State. They have more than held their own in the nation's toughest league.

They have a Sweet 16 ceiling but strike me as team not making it to the second weekend. If they draw some poor ball-handling teams, they'll have a chance but if you protect the ball against them, they can be beaten.

Sunday Morning Update

For a full Saturday there wasn't much going on.  Only 6 of the teams in my bracket lost and 3 only 3 of them have large consequences.   

Dayton took a bad loss against Duquesne.  It's going to cost them a seed or two.  

On the bubble and in were UCLA and Miami.  Both had opportunities for substantial wins and blew it.  Miami had the lead until the end against Louisville and UCLA lost to Arizona.  They are probably going to fall out but I'm going to wait to see how Sunday plays out before moving them.

Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Kentucky (SEC) vs St-FranNY(NEC)/TexSo(SWAC)

Virginia (ACC) vs Albany(Aeast)/Bucknell(Pat)

Gonzaga (WCC) vs New Mexico State (WAC)

Duke vs NC-Central (MEAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Wisconsin (B1G) vs Florida Gulf Coast (Asun)

Villanova (Beast) vs La-Monroe (Sbelt)

Arizona (P12) vs S.Dakota St(Summit)

Kansas (B12) vs High Point (Bsouth)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Utah vs UC-Davis (Bwest)

Iowa State vs Louisiana Tech(Cusa)

Northern Iowa vs Northeastern(Col)

Maryland vs SFA (Sland)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Oklahoma vs Toledo (MAC)

Baylor vs Valparasio(Horizon)

Wichita State (Valley) vs Murray State (OVC)

Notre Dame vs E.Washington (Bsky)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Butler vs Wofford (SoCon)

North Carolina vs Harvard (Ivy)

Louisville vs Iona (MAAC)

Arkansas vs Miami/Stanford

6 seed vs 11 seed

SMU (AAC) vs St.John's/UCLA

Georgetown vs Purdue

VCU (A10) vs Illinois

West Virginia vs Iowa

7 seed vs 10 seed

Indiana vs LSU

Ohio State vs Texas A&M

Providence vs Cincinnati

Oklahoma State vs Temple

8 seed vs 9 seed

San Diego St (Mwest) vs Georgia

Xavier vs Colorado State

Mississippi vs Michigan St

Dayton vs Texas

First Four Out

Oregon

Davidson

BYU

Boise State

Next Four Out

Old Dominion

NC State

Tulsa

Umass

Also Considered

Green Bay

Pittsburgh

St. Mary's

UTEP

Rhode Island

Seton Hall

George Washington

Alabama

Minnesota

Wyoming

Tennesee

Friday Notes

A new bracket will be out later today but for now lets hit on a quick points from last year.

Utah beats Oregon State 47-37 and Dick Bennett give it a standing ovation.  Let's put Utah and Virginia in the same bracket and see if we can keep a game under 65 points total

All Bubble teams win except for Temple.  They had some room for error so they only drop to a 10 seed.

Purdue gets a huge road win over Indiana and move out of the last 4 in.  They are probably still 1 bad loss from dropping out but for now they are "solidly" in.

Connecticut loses to Memphis and are no longer considered for the Also Considered.

No games tonight.  Watch for the new bracket later...

More Conference Commissioner Stupidity

Time to take a break from the games and talk about the stupidity emanating from the conferences. A week ago, Jon Solomon of CBSsports reported some conferences and their commissioners were considering bringing back freshmen ineligibility, all in the name of "education".

The initial report seemed to suggest this was going to be for basketball only. Well, today, Raphielle Johnson of collegebasketballtalk.com, reported the Big 10 has considered it for both basketball and football.

Let's get the particulars out of the way. New qualification requirements would require student-athletes to achieve a 2.3GPA and have completed 10 core classes out of 16 before their senior years. This is to begin in 2016. If athletes meet the previous requirements, they will be granted an academic redshirt, able to practice but not play. They'd still get 4 years of eligibility. Beyond this, though, leagues appear to be seriously considering a mandated Frosh redshirt, which was once a thing. The basic argument is, student-athletes can't handle the academic load as freshmen and under perform their non-athlete classmates.

The NBA is expected to pursue an older minimum age requirement of 20 in the next labor discussion. If this occurred, it would seem not necessary for the conferences to enact this for basketball but if football does it, you can certainly expect basketball to follow suit. This is ridiculous at every level.

1. If these commissioners were truly concerned about academic performance, then they never would have expanded their leagues. Why is a kid from Nebraska traveling to New Jersey? Morgantown to Ames? Syracuse to Miami?

2. Why have the leagues expanded the seasons to 12 games plus title games and bowl games in football? Why does the college basketball season last nearly 6 months?

3. Why not allow those their solely to play sports to major in those sports while still requiring core classes? Let's call a spade a spade.

These leagues don't like being feeder leagues for the NFL and the NBA. This is the bed you've made. You've made college sports big business. All of the major schools have shoe deals. Don't think for a second schools aren't pressured to bring in kids that are playing for certain travel teams sponsored by similar shoe partners. Now, these schools are concerned about academic well-being? Balderdash.

Scott Stricklin, AD at Mississippi State has suggested guaranteeing 5 years of eligibility instead of redshirting which makes more sense so you can dismiss that idea.

As long as the NCAA and its members allow themselves to be the feeder leagues for the NBA and NFL, they need to accept they're being used by athletes with no desire to be in school other than to pursue a dream to play in the NFL or NBA. And as long as these schools are happy taking checks from shoe companies and TV, that's what they are.

All Is Well Today

Great game between Duke and North Carolina and it ended the perfect way.  Carolina’s lack of outside shooting showed through and now they’ve lost 4 of the their last 5.  Speaking of losing, Syracuse topped Louisville and they’ve lost 3 of their last 4.  Both UNC and Louisville have dropped to a 5 seed.

Outside the ACC Xavier beat Cincinnati and flip spots with each other in the bracket.  UCLA lost to a game Arizona State squad and falls to one of the last 2 in.  Oregon, Boise State, Tulsa, and Rhode Island all picked up big wins to keep the pressure on UCLA and Purdue for those last precious spots.

Tonight has a couple bubble games worth noting.  Purdue, who is our last team in, travels to Indiana, and has a chance to get a solid road win to boast it’s resume.  Iowa hosts Rutgers and needs to right their ship.  I have them lower than most as that mid-50’s RPI is holding them back.  Old Dominion plays Middle Tennessee State and they are running out of chances.  A loss tonight puts them in the Also Considered.  In the WCC both BYU and St. Mary’s need to continue to win to stay in the at-large conversation.

Utah

We haven't discussed Utah much but the Utes have solidified themselves as one of the top teams in the West. At 20-4, they're 4th overall in KenPom, 14th on offense and 7th on defense. They are one of the most balanced teams in the nation, much less the west.

Utah plays at one of the slowest paces, 300th in possessions per game but as the numbers indicate, they're very efficient. They have an effective fg% of 56.5%, 7th in the nation. They can shoot it from deep, making 40.5%, 10th best and can pound it inside, making 54% from 2! On top of that, they're 26th in FTA/FGA. The Utes are a well-oiled machine. They're average on the offensive glass with a 30.9% rebounding % (174th).

Utah has a defensive effective fg% of 42.2%, 5th best overall. Teams only shoot 40.1% from the paint. Utah only allows an offensive rebounding % of 28.1% (45th). Utah is a tough defensive team.

The leader of the team is Sr. Delon Wright. Wright is considered one of the best players in the nation. A jack-of-all trades, he gives the Utes 14/5/4 per game. He's a great distributor and protects the basketball. His backcourt mate, Brandon Taylor is one of the more underrated players in the nation. With an Offensive Rating that places him 13th, he's deadly from 3, making 46% from there. Big man, Jakob Poeltl, a freshman, is a stat stuffer. He doesn't play a ton of minutes but the minutes he plays are effective. He shoots 68%, has the 9th best offensive rebounding % and is 78th in defensive rebounding. He's a fantastic player.

All 4 of the Utes losses are to likely tournament teams. The loss at Arizona was a bit disconcerting since it wasn very close. They get a revenge chance next Saturday at home.

They're favored in their last 5 games. Coach Larry Krystkowiak has done a good job sheparding the Utes into the Pac-12 and bringing them back to the level Rick Majerus had them at. Sleeper Final 4 team? It's a leap from not making the tournament and going that far but this is a very good team.

Wednesday Morning Quick Hitters

St. John's got destroyed last night by Georgetown and falls to one of the Last Four in.  They are playing with fire at this point.

Georgia lost to South Carolina and drops a seed line to a #9

Tennessee hangs with Kentucky for about 33 minutes but ends the game on a 4-18 run to lose by 18.  Kentucky keeps hanging on to the close games.  Tennessee basically needs to win out to stay in the conversation.

Texas A&M got a huge win over LSU as they start to solidify their resume

Tonight is headlined by Duke-North Carolina but there are big bubble games in the A-10 and Mountain West.  UMass-Rhode Island is the key game as somebody looks to wrestle that auto-bid spot away from VCU.

The Cherries Are Getting Ready

Bubble Bursting

Seton Hall might be the first true bubble team to have it burst this year.  We track a lot if teams here at Oak Creek's March Madness but the Pirates might be the first team who looked close to a lock early in the season to move all the way off the Also Considered.  It's been a quick mighty fall.
Pittsburgh loses a huge opportunity to get a big win against Virginia and West Virginia gets a big marquee win over the #1 RPI team, Kansas.  Miami keeps its at large hopes alive with a daytime double overtime thriller.
As for tonight, there's not much.  St.John's travels to Georgetown and could really use a top 50 road win.  Tennesee host Kentucky and despite being pretty far down the Also Consider list they could leap a ton of teams should they knock off the big dog.  The Vols have been Jekyll and Hyde all year so you never know.  LSU and Texas A&M square off in a battle of SEC bubble teams.  Both could use a win but the Aggies may need it more.

Pony Express

The class of the American Athletic Conference appears to be the soon-to-be-on probation SMU Mustangs. Barring a complete collapse, Larry Brown will be back in the NCAA tournament.

They are currently 22nd overall in KenPom, 37th in AdjustedO and 40th in AdjustedD. 

Offensively, they have an effective fg% of 53.5%, 32nd in the nation. They shoot 36% from 3 and 53.2% from 2. They're a very good offensive rebounding team, getting 36.9% of misses, 22nd best. They don't protect the ball. They're 251st in turnover %. They do share the ball, though. They're 12th in the nation in A/FgM. 

Opponents shoot 45.1% against them. That's 38th best effective fg% against. Teams only shoot 43% from 2. They're a little weaker on the defensive glass, ranking 109th in the nation. 

They lost stud guard Keith Frazier earlier  in the season but Jr. Nic Moore has more than filled the bill. He shoots 45% from 3, scoring 14.4ppg and averaged 5.4 assists per game. Markus Kennedy provides girth and 12 & 8 in the middle. Joining him in the paint is Yanick Moreira. Moreira gives them 12 & 7 and is a shot-blocking threat.

Brian has them as a 6-seed. I suspect they'll move up the seed line but their resume isn't that impressive. Best non-conference win is probably Michigan but that's looked less impressive as the season has gone along. 

They probably have a ceiling as a Sweet 16 team. They've played better in conference after a so-so start but the strength of the American is in doubt.

Monday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Kentucky (SEC) vs St-FranNY(NEC)/AlaSt(SWAC)

Virginia (ACC) vs Albany(Aeast)/Bucknell(Pat)

Gonzaga (WCC) vs New Mexico State (WAC)

Duke vs GaSouthern(Sbelt)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Wisconsin (B1G) vs Florida Gulf Coast (Asun)

Villanova (Beast) vs S.Dakota St(Summit)

Arizona (P12) vs NC-Central (MEAC)

Kansas (B12) vs High Point (Bsouth)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Utah vs UC-Davis (Bwest)

Iowa State vs Louisiana Tech(Cusa)

Northern Iowa vs Will&Mary(Colonial)

Maryland vs SFA (Sland)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Louisville vs Bowling Green (MAC)

Oklahoma vs Valparasio(Horizon)

North Carolina vs Murray State (OVC)

Baylor vs E.Washington (Bsky)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Butler vs Wofford (SoCon)

Wichita State (Valley) vs Harvard (Ivy)

Notre Dame vs Iona (MAAC)

Arkansas vs Miami/Stanford

6 seed vs 11 seed

SMU (AAC) vs UCLA/Purdue

Indiana vs Illinois

VCU (A10) vs Iowa

Georgetown vs LSU

7 seed vs 10 seed

Ohio State vs Texas A&M

Oklahoma State vs St.John's

Providence vs Xavier

San Diego St (Mwest) vs Colorado State

8 seed vs 9 seed

West Virginia vs Mississippi

Texas vs Temple

Cincinnati vs Michigan St

Georgia vs Dayton

First Four Out

Oregon

Umass

BYU

Davidson

Next Four Out

Old Dominion

NC State

Boise State

Tulsa

Also Considered

Green Bay

Pittsburgh

St. Mary's

UTEP

Rhode Island

Seton Hall

George Washington

Alabama

Minnesota

Wyoming

Oregon State

Tennesee

Michigan

Connecticut