Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Sweet 16 Thursday Picks - Southeast Regional

3. BYU vs 2. Florida -

The numbers actually favor BYU in this game but those numbers are skewed towards BYU because they had Brandon Davies for most of the season. Florida really dominated the SEC and though that conference is down, there is still something to be said about winning those games, including plenty away from Gainesville. The nation awaits Jimmer-time and he might get off, but give me the more well-balanced team in this game. I, too, like Florida by a bigger margin.

Florida 72 BYU 64

8. Butler vs. 4. Wisconsin -

Like Arizona, Butler is a "Team of Destiny" or a "Team of Luck". They, like BYU have somewhat skewed numbers based on mid-season garbage basketball. They get dragged down because of bad losses and truly ugly performances but they have won 11 in a row, including wins at UWM to knock them out (When Butler was already considered in) and a win over a Pitt team that had no reason to lose that game, but...they're playing a team that can "outscrap" them and "outhustle" them, I mean "white-out/out-white them". I think the key to this game is keeping Matt Howard on the court for Butler. Wisconsin is actually pretty bad on defense, their saving grace being they don't give many second chances or foul. I know that sounds weird but teams get good looks and shoot above average against them. If Howard stays out of foul trouble and Butler commits to him, there isn't anyone that can guard him. Leuer is a defensive sieve and Sideshow Mike is a nice player but he can't guard him. Ultimately, I think Wisconsin wins this game at the line and not being forced to play tight like many other higher seeds have against Butler. I suspect a lot of solid possessions and few turnovers (Neither team forces many). I just like Wisconsin on the defensive glass and unless Butler burns the nets it'll be a Bag of AIDS game.

Wisconsin 66 Butler 59

Region Notes - Bo Ryan has only one win against a higher seed as a tournament coach but that won't be an issue until Saturday. The Southeast/South has historically been a region of great unpredictability.

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