11. Marquette vs. 2. North Carolina
At first blush, we assume it'll take a pretty outstanding performance for the Warriors to win this game but a closer look reveals Marquette probably has more than just a fighter's chance in this game. Obviously, Marquette will have issues with the duo of Zeller and Henson. Typically, Marquette will get to the line far more often than their opponent and typically, UNC will not allow their opponent to the line (Nice to have some shot blockers). The one difference is, UNC is about average in how much it gets to the line. And when they do, they're not very good, only shooting 67% with John Henson being the weight bringing them down. Another concern is UNC gets a lot of points within the arc, Marquette's shakiest spot on defense. But if Marquette can make their 3's, UNC typically won't outshoot them there and is their weakest spot on d. Most models have this a pretty close game and some show this game as the one producing the best chance for an upset (based on seeding). I'd like to think so but it'll take a pretty solid effort.
North Carolina 80 Marquette 72
4. Kentucky vs. 1. Ohio State
How can Kentucky beat the Buckeyes? Defend the arc. Ohio State does so many things well but if Kentucky can harass the shooters, they can make the Buckeyes sweat. On offense, Brian has pointed out the Buckeyes depth issue, so Kentucky needs to be wisely aggressive. Get OSU to work hard on d and see if they can't tire them a bit. Watch it early, if OSU is getting open shots deep, game over.
Ohio State 82 Kentucky 70
Region Notes - Marquette last played North Carolina in the tournament in the 1977 NCAA title game. If Marquette and Kentucky were to advance, it would be the 4th time since 1994 that they'd have met with Marquette winning them all.
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