Conference Preview #2 - Big 12 Conference (B12)

 

2. Big 12 Conference

2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview

The Big 12 enters the 2026–27 season ranked second nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +19.60, the conference boasts arguably the most impressive collection of national championship contenders in college basketball. The initial OCMM bracket projection has 11 Big 12 teams in the NCAA Tournament, including four teams on the top two seed lines.

Houston leads the way as a No. 1 seed, followed by Arizona, Iowa State, and Kansas as No. 2 seeds. The Cougars have become one of the nation's most consistent programs under Kelvin Sampson, while Arizona enters the season looking to build on last year's Final Four appearance. The Wildcats were also selected to win the conference in the preseason coaches poll, narrowly edging Houston. With both programs operating at an elite level, the race for the Big 12 championship should be outstanding.

Arizona is one of my picks to reach the 2027 Final Four. I really like the Wildcats' combination of talent, experience, and coaching, and I believe they have everything necessary to make another deep tournament run. While Houston may enter the season with the slightly higher national ranking, Arizona is a team I'm particularly confident in when looking ahead to March.

Kansas might be the most intriguing team in the conference, although I believe the Jayhawks are overrated entering the season. Bill Self welcomes highly touted freshman Tyran Stokes, one of the nation's premier incoming players, but I'm not convinced Kansas deserves its lofty preseason expectations. The Jayhawks certainly have the talent to compete near the top of the Big 12, but I need to see more before considering them a legitimate national championship contender. Iowa State should remain a serious threat under T.J. Otzelberger, while Texas Tech checks in as a No. 3 seed and gives the conference five teams projected among the nation's top 12 seeds.

The Big 12's depth extends well beyond its championship contenders. Cincinnati and Baylor earn No. 8 and No. 9 seeds, respectively, while BYU also checks in as a No. 9 seed. TCU rounds out the more comfortable tournament selections as a No. 10 seed. West Virginia and Oklahoma State are projected as No. 11 seeds, giving the conference several teams that will need to build strong résumés to secure their positions in March.

Arizona State and UCF are also worth watching, as both appear among the OCMM Next Four Out. With the NCAA Tournament expanding to 76 teams, the Big 12 has a legitimate opportunity to send a double-digit number of teams to the field. The conference's strength should provide plenty of opportunities for quality victories, although the difficult league schedule could also make it challenging for bubble teams to separate themselves.

What makes the Big 12 particularly dangerous is its strength at the top. Houston, Arizona, Iowa State, Kansas, and Texas Tech all enter the season with the talent to make deep NCAA Tournament runs. While the SEC ranks slightly higher in overall conference efficiency, the Big 12 has an argument for possessing the nation's strongest group of championship contenders. Personally, I'm more confident in Arizona's ability to make a Final Four run than I am in Kansas living up to its preseason ranking.

OCMM Outlook: The Big 12 opens the season as the nation's second-ranked conference, with 11 teams projected into the NCAA Tournament. Houston leads the way as a No. 1 seed, while Arizona, Iowa State, Kansas, and Texas Tech provide tremendous strength at the top. Arizona is one of my early Final Four selections, while Kansas is a team I believe could fall short of expectations. Arizona State and UCF give the conference additional opportunities to increase its bid total. The Big 12 should be one of the most competitive leagues in the country and could send multiple teams deep into March.