We tend to hear that yearly, so I typically dismiss it to recency bias but I saw something last week that piqued my interest. An argument was made that the use of the portal hasn’t just hurt mid-majors but also has hurt power conference teams. The argument is, the talent has been accumulated more tightly on teams and the bubble teams are simply worse because the teams are worse. Makes sense when you say it out loud.
In 2016, the top ranked KenPom team was Villanova at +32.01. 25th was Vandy at +18.76, a difference of 13.25. This year, Duke is +39.26 and Iowa is +22.40, a difference of 16.86. Take it out further to 50 and it’s 17.86 vs. 23.59. The gap between the top teams and the chasers in the middle is widening.
Now, this is cherry-picking on my part just doing a 10-year gap. It’s hardly conclusive but does underly the idea of a weaker bubble. It also illustrates how teams are adapting to the analytics era of the sport but that’s a different topic. Teams are playing more efficiently but the talent gap is widening from the top down.
There’s also an argument to be made about bloated conferences as well. Uneven conference schedules doesn’t help. Without true round robins, I believe the conferences are cannibalizing one another in some instances. The SEC is a good example this year. When you have one alpha, Florida, and the rest are good but not great, you get what you get this year. A lot of bubble teams eating one another instead of allowing for separation. When every game and multiple teams are bubble busters, sooner or later, you’re a dog chasing the bubble.
What’ll happen is, leagues and teams will understand what’s happening and begin to game the system. I’m not sure what that’ll look like but it’ll happen.
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