MAAC, Valley and WCC

MAAC - 

All of my favorite mid-majors start tourney play on Thursday. First up, the MAAC who will be in Atlantic City. 

Only one team is top-200 in KenPom, Merrimack. They still have a negative AdjEM but won the league going 17-3. Want a crazy stat? Opponents have an offensive rebounding % of 40%.

There are 7 teams beside Merrimack at .500 or better in league. Feels like a wide open tourney. So, give me Siena and make that Gerry McNamara to Syracuse talk heat up.

Arch Madness

One of the best tournaments of the season happens in St. Louis where nothing good rarely happens. It’s been a better year in the Valley as mentioned in our Belmont piece. Of course, Belmont immediately lost after I wrote that, but they’re still 55th in KenPom and capable of shooting someone out of the Big Dance.

Bradley finished 2nd and Brian Wardle will probably have some opportunities to move up the food chain. Still, his Braves were 7th best in KenPom in the league. UNI who finished 6th is 80th in KenPom. Illinois State is 96th, UIC is 109 and Murray State is 117. Heck, Southern Illinois who finished .500 in the league is 114.

Should be a good show. I’ll pick UNI to pull the upset. I’d like to see Belmont but they’ve made me mad in the past by not busting brackets.

WCC

The last trip to Vegas as WCC members for the Zags. Kind of sad and everyone will want to see them lose. Do they pull a Syracuse who won their last trip to MSG or do the Zags bow out losers? 

St. Mary’s is my pick. The Gaels are the best FT shooting team in the nation and are 9th best from 3. They rebound both sides of the glass and don’t foul. They’re also a young team. 337th in experience and they still went 27-4. I’ve been burned by them before but I might be mentally putting them into the Sweet 16 as of today. They have 2 7’ guys getting decent minutes. 

Also, as discussed last week, Santa Clara is on bubble watch. Have to get to the title game. The Sendek Experience continues to run amok.