3. Big Ten Conference
2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview
The Big Ten enters the 2026–27 season ranked third nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +18.68, the conference once again boasts tremendous depth and figures to be a major factor in the NCAA Tournament. The initial OCMM bracket projection has 12 Big Ten teams in the field, demonstrating just how competitive the league should be from top to bottom.
Illinois leads the way as a No. 1 seed in the initial OCMM projection, followed by Michigan State as a No. 2 seed and Nebraska as a No. 4 seed. The Fighting Illini enter the season with legitimate national championship aspirations, while Nebraska looks to build on its recent success and establish itself as a consistent presence near the top of the Big Ten standings.
One team I believe is overrated entering the season is Michigan State. There's no questioning Tom Izzo's Hall of Fame credentials, but the Spartans haven't reached the Final Four since 2019. While Michigan State has enjoyed recent tournament success, including an Elite Eight appearance in 2025, I'm not convinced the Spartans deserve the lofty expectations that come with a No. 2 seed. They'll need to prove they're capable of taking that next step before I'm completely sold.
The conference's depth becomes apparent throughout the middle seed lines. Ohio State and Purdue earn No. 6 seeds, while UCLA and Michigan both check in as No. 7 seeds. The combination of established programs and emerging contenders should make the conference race particularly interesting.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, I believe Wisconsin is once again being underrated. The Badgers enter the initial OCMM projection as a No. 11 seed, but Greg Gard has developed a reputation for getting more out of his teams than preseason expectations suggest. Wisconsin has consistently found ways to compete near the top of the Big Ten, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Badgers comfortably improve their tournament position as the season progresses.
The Big Ten's projected tournament field also includes USC as a No. 9 seed, along with Minnesota, Iowa, and Indiana as No. 11 seeds. Several of these teams enter the season near the tournament bubble, but the expanded 76-team field creates additional opportunities for the conference to earn bids. The challenge will be separating themselves in a league where quality wins should be available almost every night.
One of the more interesting storylines will be whether the Big Ten can translate its impressive regular-season depth into postseason success. With Illinois leading the way and several other programs capable of making deep runs, the conference should have plenty of opportunities to compete for a national championship.
OCMM Outlook: The Big Ten opens the season as the nation's third-ranked conference, with 12 teams projected into the NCAA Tournament. Illinois leads the way as a No. 1 seed, while Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Ohio State, UCLA, and Michigan provide considerable depth. However, I'm skeptical that Michigan State will live up to its preseason expectations, and I believe Wisconsin will finish considerably stronger than its initial No. 11 seed suggests. The Big Ten should once again be one of the most competitive conferences in college basketball.
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