Conference Preview #5 - Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

 

5. Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview

The Atlantic Coast Conference enters the 2026–27 season ranked fifth nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +15.46, the ACC has plenty of talent at the top, but its overall depth trails the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, and Big East.

I'll admit that seeing the ACC ranked fifth is disappointing. I've always viewed the ACC as one of college basketball's premier conferences, and while the league has certainly experienced some ups and downs in recent years, it's still frustrating to see it sitting behind four other conferences. The talent is there, particularly at the top, but the ACC needs more consistent performances from its middle and lower-tier programs to regain its place among the nation's elite.

Duke leads the way as the nation's No. 1 team in the preseason KenPom rankings and earns a No. 1 seed in the initial OCMM bracket projection. The Blue Devils are the clear conference favorite and enter the season with national championship expectations. Virginia and Louisville provide the strongest competition, earning No. 4 and No. 5 seeds, respectively, while Miami (FL) checks in as a No. 6 seed. All three programs have the talent to challenge Duke and potentially make deep NCAA Tournament runs.

I continue to believe Duke is the best team in the country, and I'm sticking with the Blue Devils as my pick to win the 2027 National Championship. It's a position I've held throughout the preseason, and nothing I've seen has changed my mind. Duke has the talent, coaching, and overall roster construction to make another serious run at a national title. While there will undoubtedly be challenges along the way, I expect the Blue Devils to be playing for a championship in April.

North Carolina and Clemson round out the ACC's projected tournament field, both earning No. 10 seeds. The Tar Heels enter the season looking to establish themselves under new head coach Michael Malone, while Clemson hopes to continue its recent run of NCAA Tournament appearances. Both teams have opportunities to improve their seeding, but neither enters the season with much room for error.

The conference's biggest opportunity may come from its bubble teams. NC State opens the season among the OCMM First Four Out, while SMU appears in the Next Four Out. Both programs are within striking distance of the tournament field and could help the ACC exceed its initial six-bid projection. With the NCAA Tournament expanding to 76 teams, the league should have additional opportunities to strengthen its representation in March.

OCMM Outlook: The ACC opens the season as the nation's fifth-ranked conference, with six teams projected into the NCAA Tournament. Duke leads the way as a No. 1 seed and remains my pick to win the national championship. Virginia, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, and Clemson round out the projected field, while NC State and SMU give the conference two additional teams capable of pushing the ACC toward eight bids. Despite my disappointment in the ACC's overall ranking, I still believe the conference has the nation's best team in Duke.