Monday, February 20, 2017

NC State and Expectations

Last week, NC State fired coach Mark Gottfried after six seasons. The Wolfpack was on its way to missing the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive season after making it the first four seasons of the Gottfried era. Despite an impressive class of recruits, this season had been a mess for NC State. Whether or not Mark Gottfried was the right guy is another story, but what are realistic expectations in Raleigh?

The hardcore Wolfpack fan will say compete with Duke and UNC on a regular basis. They have two national titles, making them part of a very exclusive club. The first came in 1974 behind probably the best team in school history. Everyone knows the story of the 1983 team. While the '83 team is forever etched in the memories of Wolfpack fans, realistically, that team was wildly lucky.

Overall, NC State has made 3 Final 4's and 6 Elite 8's, the last being in 1986 which was their 3rd in 4 years. They've made 11 Sweet 16's, including two under Gottfried. They've been to only 3 since 1989.

From 1991-2002, the Wolfpack didn't make the NCAA Tournament. Herb Sendek took them to 5 straight tournaments following that drought but would leave following 2006. Similar to Gottfried, even with the tournament appearances, Sendek couldn't match the others on Tobacco Road.

Gottfried came in and took over following the disastrous Sidney Lowe and had instant success. Again, 2 Sweet 16's weren't enough. 

I'll readily admit this season's team was a mess to watch. 228th in defensive efficiency is brutal. With a sure fire lottery pick in Dennis Smith, expectations should have been a better team.

The question is, what's their ceiling?History tells us, a dynamic coach such as Norm Sloan or Jim Valvano can succeed at a high level. Still, Sloan found trouble with the NCAA, missing the tournament the year before the '74 title due to recruiting violations. Even Valvano only managed 2 regular season titles, including their last ACC title in 1989. His title team was a basketball miracle.

The truth is, the ceiling isn't that high unless they hire a great coach. That's part luck. The early wish list includes two guys that could fit the part in Gregg Marshall and Archie Miller. Will either be interested in taking on not only Duke and UNC but a perennially loaded ACC? Tom Crean's name has been mentioned and they'd do far worse, as would he.

Mike Decourcy of the Sporting News lays out why the job could be open at the right time. Coach K is 70 and Roy Williams is 68. There could be a crack for NC State. History isn't kind to coaches as they get older. North Carolina will eventually be penalized for their academic issues.

History tells us this isn't a great job. Great coaches have made it a great job. Norm Sloan and Jim Valvano were those guys. Wolfpack fans hope the next hire is that guy. As for a destination, it's not what Wolfpack fans think it is. 

You can also plug into this discussion a Jesuit university in downtown Milwaukee. 

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