Fun With KenPom

Let's dive into some KenPom stuff as we enter the final month of the season. We're less than a month from conference tournaments starting.

The Magic Top 10

We enter the final month with only two teams  Gonzaga and West Virginia that have top 10 offenses and defenses. The Zags are 7th and 4th respectively. WVU is  4th and 10th respectively. 

Villanova, Virginia and Kansas finished last season in that group. That's a National Champ and two Elite 8 teams. Nova defeated Kansas.

Top 20 Teams

The next group are teams with top 20 offenses and defenses.

- Virginia (15,3)

- Kentucky (5,16)

- Baylor (19,5)

Villanova and Florida are close but outside looking in.

Last year, that group included Purdue and Oklahoma with UNC close.

OU made the Final 4, Purdue lost to UALR in round one. UNC made the final game. Nova is better on offense right now and the same on defense as UNC last year.

Syracuse was the outsider last year. They were 50th in offense and 17th in defense. Since you asked, NC State is 50th in offense right now but 148th in defense. They are not this year's Orange. Alabama is 17th in defense but 160th in offense. They are not this year's Orange. The Orange finished 27th overall last year. Kansas State is 27th as of today and split the Orange's overall numbers. So, K-State is this year's Orange.

Just kidding, take it easy.

WARNING: Pretenders

- UCLA is number one in offense and 127th in defense. They are not a title contender and I'd be hard pressed to call them a Final 4 team at this point. But they are fun to watch. If they can somehow be a top 30 defensive team by March, take them serious then. Resembles Notre Dame from last year. They made the Elite 8, thanks Nigel Hayes.

- South Carolina is 17-4 and have the number one defense. They're 164th in offensive efficiency. Good job by Frank Martin but not someone to watch in March. Resembles San Diego State from last year. Uh, oh. 

- Cincinnati is 8th in defensive efficiency and a respectable 42nd in offense. That's not good enough. Most resembles Texas A&M from last year. That's Sweet 16. They could have a gaudy record entering the tournament but be leery. Plus, screw Cincinnati.

WARNING: Sleepers

- Florida is 21st in offensive efficiency and 7th defensively. They're 10th overall in KenPom and 16-5. Eye test does not compute, though. On paper, sort of resemble West Virginia from last year. Uh, oh.

- Wichita State would be the next closest sleeper since they're 27th in both categories and 20th overall. Their resume is paper thin. They are favored in the rest of their games and can split the regular season title with Illinois State in the Valley. Given the dearth of quality bubble teams, a four or five loss Shocker team should dance. Seeding won't be great so they'd be real sleeper in that sense.

These numbers change dramatically each night, so it doesn't mean much today but gives us an idea that things are taking shape similar to year's past.