Patriot League Too

The Patriot League starts its tournament tonight. All games will be played at the home of the higher seed. As Brian mentioned, Bucknell will be the heavy favorite.

They're 80th in KenPom and would probably scare the daylights out of Baylor or West Virginina in the opening round. They challenged themselves out of league, including a win at Vanderbilt. 

A cause for concern would be they were swept in conference play by Lehigh, everyone's favorite 15-seed. Lehigh is 118th in KenPom, so they're a legit threat. They also have wins over Princeton and Mississippi State.

The next best team is Boston who finished 12-6 in league play along with Lehigh. Boston also swept Lehigh and would get the home court against them.

The Pick: Lehigh in a slight upset 

Ohio Valley, Home of the Perpetual Tease, Belmont

The Ohio Valley begins its conference tournament on Wednesday from beautiful Nashville, Tennessee. Nashville happens to be the home to Belmont, the heavy favorite.

Belmont won the East by going 15-1. In the West, UT-Martin took the title at 10-6.

Belmont is 84th in KenPom. Tennessee State is next at 156th. Belmont swept them in the regular season. They played UT-Martin at home, winning their only matchup.

They'll be pressure on Belmont to win the conference tournament because there is no road to the tournament without the title. The Ohio Valley has given us some surprises through the years. Austin Peay surprised last year. Two years ago, Belmont ended Murray State's undefeated run through the league. Eastern Kentucky won it ahead of Murray State and Belmont in 2014. Weird things happen here.

That said, Belmont is hands down the best team in this league. It's not really close.

The Pick: Belmont

Tuesday Notes

Conference Tournament Notes:

Previews have been rolling in but the Patriot League starts tonight.  Here's a quick secret...Bucknell is the favorite

Bubble Movement:

None!  Ha, gotcha

Bracket Movement:

North Carolina looks terrible in a "basketball" game against Virginia but hangs on to a 1 seed mostly because nobody else deserves it.  Baylor gets a nice win against West Virginia and the Mountaineers drop a seed line.  Virginia Tech beats fellow 8 seed Miami which doesn't do much inside the bracket.

Tonight Bubble Action:

Georgetown vs Seton Hall - Seton Hall is actually pretty safe at the moment.  It would be best for them to keep winning for now
Indiana vs Purdue - shockingly Indiana is still in the conversation. Need a big upset at Purdue to stay that way
Mississippi St vs South Carolina - a win locks a bid for the Gamecocks
DePaul vs Providence - The Friars are finally in the bracket.  A let down loss drops them back out
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky - Vandy is just  out right now.  A road win at Kentucky could see them leap over a few teams and find them in come tomorrow
Pittsburgh vs Georgia Tech - 14 losses vs 13 losses and RPI's in the 60's and 90's....and we are still talking about them

NEC Conference Tourney, 16-seed Dreaming

The NEC also starts its conference tournament on Wednesday. The league will certainly be producing a 16-seed.

Like many of the smaller leagues, tournament games will be played at the higher seeds. Mount St. Mary's won the league title. They're also the highest KenPom team in the league at 216.

Long Island-Brooklyn finished second in the league and won last week at Mount St. Mary's. Wagner finished 3rd and split with MSM. LIU swept Wagner.

The Pick: Long Island-Brooklyn

American East, American Vermont

The American East begins its conference tournament on Wednesday night and there is a prohibitive favorite. That would be Vermont who went 16-0 in league play this year.

The AE plays its tournament on campus sites, so Vermont can stay home throughout the tournament. A 13-seed in Brian's latest mock, they're also 69th in KenPom. That's ahead of BYU who just won at Gonzaga.

Albany, who finished tied for third is probably the biggest threat to Vermont. They're 134th in KenPom. 

The Pick: Vermont

Big South, Big Fun

On the heels of the A-Sun kicking off tonight, the Big South begins their conference tournament tomorrow night.

The tournament starts with higher seeds hosting the opening round and then the quarters and semi's at the Winthrop Coliseum. This bodes well for Winthrop who is the number 1 overall seed. The title game is played at the higher seed between the two finalists.

As I mentioned, Winthrop is the 1-seed. UNC-Asheville is the 2-seed and both finished 15-3 in league play. Asheville is 99th in KenPom and Winthrop is 113th. Brian has Winthrop as a 14-seed and is probably another team no one really wants to deal with. Asheville would be the same. 

The next two best teams are Liberty and Gardner-Webb. Though Liberty finished 3 games ahead of GW, GW is ahead of them in KenPom. Liberty, of course, has Marquette transfer John Dawson who has had a nice career with them.

The Pick: Winthrop (on the strength of the home court)

Atlantic Sun Fun

In what is staggeringly hard to believe, the Atlantic Sun Conference tournament begins tonight. 

The A-Sun as the hip folks call it, do their tournament right as the higher seed will host each game. The heavy favorite will be Florida Gulf Coast who enters the tournament 119th in KenPom. Two-seed David Lipscomb is 162nd. FGCU would be a team you'd prefer not win since they'll be an opening round pain to deal with.

No other A-Sun team ranks in the KenPom top 200 and would certainly be a 16-seed. 

The Pick: Florida Gulf Coast

Brackets and Conference Tournaments Start Tonight

The Atlantic Sun kicks off Conference Tournament season where Florida Gulf Coast will be a heavy favorite to grab the auto-bid.

1 seed vs 16 seed

Kansas (B12) vs Mt.St.Mary(NEC)/N.Dakota (Bsky)

Villanova (Beast) vs NCCU(MEAC)/UC-Irvine(Bwest)

Gonzaga (WCC) vs New Orleans(Sland)

North Carolina (ACC) vs Texas Southern (SWAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Oregon vs Oakland (Hor)

Louisville vs South Dakota (Summit)

UCLA vs Cal-Bakersfield (WAC)

Kentucky vs Florida Gulf Coast (Asun)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Florida State vs Winthrop(Bsouth)

Arizona (P12) vs Bucknell (Pat)

Baylor vs Belmont (OVC)

West Virginia vs Akron (MAC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Florida(SEC) vs Princeton (Ivy)

Butler vs ETSU (SoCon)

Duke vs Vermont (Aeast)

CincinnatI vs Monmouth(MAAC)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Notre Dame vs Nevada (Mwest)

SMU (AAC) vs UT-Arlington (Sbelt)

Purdue (B14) vs UNC-Wilmington (Col)

St. Mary's vs Rhode Island/Syracuse

6 seed vs 11 seed

Virgina vs Providence/TCU

Minnesota vs California

Wisconsin vs Illinois State (Mvalley)

Oklahoma State vs Arkansas

7 seed vs 10 seed

Maryland vs Seton Hall

Dayton (A10) vs Michigan State

Creighton vs Wichita State

Iowa State vs Middle Tenn St (C-USA)

8 seed vs 9 seed

Virginia Tech vs USC

Miami vs VCU

Xavier vs Northwestern

South Carolina vs Michigan

First Four Out

Marquette

Kansas State

Vanderbilt

Wake Forest

Next Four Out

Georgia

Mississippi

Houston

Georgia Tech

Also Considered

Ohio State

Indiana

Clemson

Utah

Tennessee

Illinois

Texas Tech

Pittsburgh

Top 10

10. UCLA: Bruins replace our weekly Big 14 team. Very impressive win at Arizona last night. Defensive efficiency is bad, but did enough last night.

9. Oregon: Played uninspired at Stanford but found a way to win.

8. Wichita State: Shockers will be a handful in a few weeks. Young team, too. Not sure this is a team Gregg Marshall walks from.

7. Louisville: Lost at UNC, no shame in that. Defense is slipping, though.

6. West Virginia: Top 15 on both sides of the ball.  

5. Kentucky: Nice win over Florida. Gators ahead of them in KP.

4. Kansas: Death, taxes, blah, blah

3. North Carolina: Best team in the best league.

2. Villanova: If they avoid Butler, they'll be fine in March.

1. Gonzaga: Well, last night was interesting. I don't necessarily believe losing helps but some adversity can. Their goal is the Final 4.

Friday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Mt.St.Mary(NEC)/N.Dakota (Bsky)

Kansas (B12) vs NCCU(MEAC)/UC-Irvine(Bwest)

Villanova (Beast) vs New Orleans(Sland)

North Carolina (ACC) vs Texas Southern (SWAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Arizona (P12) vs Cal-Bakersfield (WAC)

Oregon vs ND State (Summit)

Baylor vs Bucknell (Pat)

Louisville vs Florida Gulf Coast (Asun)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Florida(SEC) vs Princeton (Ivy)

Florida State vs UNC-Ashville(Bsouth)

Kentucky vs Valparasio (Hor)

West Virginia vs Belmont (OVC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

UCLA vs Akron (MAC)

Duke vs ETSU (SoCon)

Purdue (B14) vs Vermont (Aeast)

CincinnatI vs Monmouth(MAAC)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Butler vs Nevada (Mwest)

Notre Dame vs UT-Arlington (Sbelt)

St. Mary's vs UNC-Wilmington (Col)

SMU (AAC) vs California/TCU

6 seed vs 11 seed

Wisconsin vs Marquette/Kansas State

Virgina vs Syracuse

Minnesota vs Illinois State (Mvalley)

Maryland vs Arkansas

7 seed vs 10 seed

Oklahoma State vs Seton Hall

Dayton (A10) vs Michigan State

Creighton vs Wichita State

Xavier vs Middle Tenn St (C-USA)

8 seed vs 9 seed

Virginia Tech vs Michigan

VCU vs USC

Miami vs South Carolina

Iowa State vs Northwestern

First Four Out

Providence

Rhode Island

Wake Forest

Georgia Tech

Next Four Out

Clemson

Mississippi

Houston

Vanderbilt

Also Considered

Ohio State

Indiana

Georgia

Utah

Tennessee

Illinois

Texas Tech

Pittsburgh

Alabama

Thursday Morning Bracket Update

Last Night’s “Stuff”

• Duke loses on a bank shot 3 at the buzzer which drops them 1 seed line to a 4
• Syracuse gets a great win but RPI still is an issue at 86.  They still need to keep winning
• Boise State and Georgetown lose and are dropped from consideration
• Vanderbilt beat Tennessee and is added to the watch list
• Providence gets a good win and is our 1^st team out, RPI in the high 60’s doesn’t fill me with confidence

Tonight’s “Stuff”

• Georgia vs Alabama – Neither team have much hope but the loser is dropped from consideration
• Nebraska vs Michigan State – Sparty is currently an 11 with average computer numbers.  This would be a bad loss
• Utah vs Colorado – Utah has an RPI hanging around 80 but still has a small chance if they go on a run

Wednesday Bubble Games and More!

Again, last night provided not much movement in the bracket.  South Carolina and Northwestern lost while Iowa State won.  Those teams along with Miami flipped from 8 to 9 and vice versa.  Marquette got a win to remain in the bracket but their RPI is still 70 which is DANGEROUS.  Georgia Tech, our first team out lost and fall a couple steps back.  Plenty of opportunities left for them to make a statement but right not those last couple ACC teams are not making a move into the bracket.  Tonight may be a different story.

Bubble Games Tonight

Vanderbilt vs Tennessee – Vandy gets a note in the Also Considered with a win.  Tennessee gets to remain in the First Four Out with a win.

Michigan vs Rutgers – a win does nothing for the Wolverines.   A loss would be devastating

So. Illinois vs Illinois State – The Redbirds need to avoid a loss to keep that at-large window open

Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest – Game 1 of the ACC bubble watch.  Teams 6 and 7 out right now.  Win and stay in the conversation.

Xavier vs Seton Hall – The Hall can move to lock status with a win and probably stay in the bracket with a loss

DePaul vs Georgetown – The Hoya’s 25% chance of getting a bid becomes 0% with a loss

TCU vs Kansas – a loss at Kansas won’t hurt TCU but a win gets them at least a seed line bump

Duke vs Syracuse -  Game 2 of the ACC bubble watch.  After a great January, February hasn’t been kind to the Orange.  This I a must win for them and their 80+ RPI

St. Louis vs VCU – I think VCU is safe but this would be a terrible loss.  See Rutgers, Michigan

Minnesota vs Maryland – again, probably safe for both but a Gopher win locks them a spot

Texas A&M vs Arkansas – the Razorbacks need to keep winning , plain and simple

Oregon vs California – the Golden Bears have quietly been in the 10-11 seed spot all year.  It’s good but not great

Oklahoma St vs Kansas St – K-State needs this more than Oklahoma State.  Can they protect the Octagon of Doom?

Connecticut vs Houston – Both need help, a lot of it.  A loss is the end

Providence vs Creighton – a road win at Creighton probably….probably puts them in the bracket at the expense of Syracuse or Marquette

Bubble/Conference Leader Games

Furman vs East Tennessee State – the 1 seed in the SoCon is at stake here.  ETSU is a current 13 seed while Furman would be a 14/15

Boise State vs Nevada – Mountain West 3 way tie drops one team out.  Loser will not be in consideration for an at-large.  Winner probably isn’t either but meh

Games To Watch

Butler vs Villanova – just cause it should be a great game

Louisville vs North Carolina – probably the only two ACC teams capable of a 1 seed. 

Collar Tightening

Just last Sunday, the Wildcats of Northwestern appeared to put the nail in the coffin of dreaded longest non-tournament streak of any major conference team with an emphatic win in Madison. Well, fast forward to today and you have a team run at home by Maryland, survived at home against Rutgers and lost convincingly at Illinois.

At 20-8 (9-6), it seems wildly unlikely they get left out on selection Sunday. That said, their 3 last games aren't exactly cakewalks. They go to Indiana, desperate for a win and close at home against Michigan and Purdue. Those are 3 lose able games and now all of a sudden, that first Big 14 tournament game looms large. Maybe.

Northwestern suffered from a common malady many teams unfamiliar with success have, how to handle it. After Marquette beat Villanova, Coach Wojo eerily predicted what happened based on what he saw at his time at Duke. Underdog teams that beat top 10 teams seemingly always follow it with a bad stretch. Marquette was/is a prime example.

Now, does this really happen as much as it seems? Probably not but it does happen. Either way, Northwestern and its fans are probably a bit nervous at the moment.

Today's Thoughts

Not much movement in the bracket today.  Virginia drops a seed line by butchering the sport and scoring 48 points in an overtime game.  Tonight has a handful of bubble games worth noting.

Rhode Island v. LaSalle – the Rams are in the 1^st 4 out and cannot afford another slip up.  Don’t know if they survive another regular season loss

Clemson v. Virginia Tech – the Tigers are in the Next Four Out.  A win here is required.  RPI is right around the 60 threshold

South Carolina v. Florida – Carolina isn’t really in bubble trouble but a loss tonight would be 4 out of the last 5.  They have already dropped to an 8 seed.

George Mason v. Dayton – The Flyers are probably safe and this wouldn’t be a terrible loss but better safe than sorry

Evansville v. Wichita State – another case where the mid-major’s better continue to win and not give the committee a reason to leave them out.  Resume is paper thin.

St. John’s v. Marquette – the Warriors need a win.  RPI is out of acceptable range even if I have them currently in

Northwestern v. Illinois – Northwestern is safe.  Illinois will be dropped out of the Also Considered with a loss

North Carolina State v. Georgia Tech – Dumpster fire at GT.  The Jackets need a win and RPI help….lots of it

Mississippi v. Mississippi State – Mississippi is on thin Also Considered ice

Indiana v. Iowa -  Indiana like Illinois needs a win or they are out. 

NC State and Expectations

Last week, NC State fired coach Mark Gottfried after six seasons. The Wolfpack was on its way to missing the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive season after making it the first four seasons of the Gottfried era. Despite an impressive class of recruits, this season had been a mess for NC State. Whether or not Mark Gottfried was the right guy is another story, but what are realistic expectations in Raleigh?

The hardcore Wolfpack fan will say compete with Duke and UNC on a regular basis. They have two national titles, making them part of a very exclusive club. The first came in 1974 behind probably the best team in school history. Everyone knows the story of the 1983 team. While the '83 team is forever etched in the memories of Wolfpack fans, realistically, that team was wildly lucky.

Overall, NC State has made 3 Final 4's and 6 Elite 8's, the last being in 1986 which was their 3rd in 4 years. They've made 11 Sweet 16's, including two under Gottfried. They've been to only 3 since 1989.

From 1991-2002, the Wolfpack didn't make the NCAA Tournament. Herb Sendek took them to 5 straight tournaments following that drought but would leave following 2006. Similar to Gottfried, even with the tournament appearances, Sendek couldn't match the others on Tobacco Road.

Gottfried came in and took over following the disastrous Sidney Lowe and had instant success. Again, 2 Sweet 16's weren't enough. 

I'll readily admit this season's team was a mess to watch. 228th in defensive efficiency is brutal. With a sure fire lottery pick in Dennis Smith, expectations should have been a better team.

The question is, what's their ceiling?History tells us, a dynamic coach such as Norm Sloan or Jim Valvano can succeed at a high level. Still, Sloan found trouble with the NCAA, missing the tournament the year before the '74 title due to recruiting violations. Even Valvano only managed 2 regular season titles, including their last ACC title in 1989. His title team was a basketball miracle.

The truth is, the ceiling isn't that high unless they hire a great coach. That's part luck. The early wish list includes two guys that could fit the part in Gregg Marshall and Archie Miller. Will either be interested in taking on not only Duke and UNC but a perennially loaded ACC? Tom Crean's name has been mentioned and they'd do far worse, as would he.

Mike Decourcy of the Sporting News lays out why the job could be open at the right time. Coach K is 70 and Roy Williams is 68. There could be a crack for NC State. History isn't kind to coaches as they get older. North Carolina will eventually be penalized for their academic issues.

History tells us this isn't a great job. Great coaches have made it a great job. Norm Sloan and Jim Valvano were those guys. Wolfpack fans hope the next hire is that guy. As for a destination, it's not what Wolfpack fans think it is. 

You can also plug into this discussion a Jesuit university in downtown Milwaukee. 

Monday Morning Bracketology

Let me start by saying although at the moment I have Syracuse and Marquette in as my last two teams, if the season actually ended today I’d have to reconsider their inclusion.  Syracuse has an RPI of 83 which would be the highest in the modern era and Marquette’s 72 would be as well.  For trivia sake the highest RPI to get an at-large was USC in 2011 with a RPI of 64.  Usually if you are above 60 you are basically excluded but if that were the case those two would be out and of my First Four Out and Next Four Out, Georgia Tech, Providence, Clemson, and Alabama would all be out as well.  Of the Also Considered group the only team under 60 is Georgia at 59 and they are basically out unless they win the rest of their games and lose in the SEC championship. 

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Mt.St.Mary(NEC)/N.Dakota (Bsky)

Villanova (Beast) vs NCCU(MEAC)/UC-Irvine(Bwest)

Kansas (B12) vs New Orleans(Sland)

North Carolina (ACC) vs Texas Southern (SWAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Arizona (P12) vs Cal-Bakersfield (WAC)

Louisville vs ND State (Summit)

Oregon vs Bucknell (Pat)

Baylor vs Florida Gulf Coast (Asun)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Duke vs Princeton (Ivy)

Florida(SEC) vs UNC-Ashville(Bsouth)

Florida State vs Valparasio (Hor)

Kentucky vs Belmont (OVC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

UCLA vs ETSU (SoCon)

West Virginia vs Vermont (Aeast)

Purdue (B14) vs Monmouth(MAAC)

CincinnatI vs Akron (MAC)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Butler vs Nevada (Mwest)

Notre Dame vs UT-Arlington (Sbelt)

Wisconsin vs UNC-Wilmington (Col)

Virgina vs Marquette/Syracuse

6 seed vs 11 seed

St. Mary's vs California/TCU

Maryland vs Seton Hall

SMU (AAC) vs Illinois State (Mvalley)

Minnesota vs Michigan State

7 seed vs 10 seed

Creighton vs Kansas State

Dayton (A10) vs Arkansas

Oklahoma State vs Wichita State

Xavier vs Middle Tenn St (C-USA)

8 seed vs 9 seed

South Carolina vs Michigan

Virginia Tech vs USC

Northwestern vs Miami

VCU vs Iowa State

First Four Out

Georgia Tech

Providence

Tennessee

Rhode Island

Next Four Out

Clemson

Wake Forest

Pittsburgh

Alabama

Also Considered

Ohio State

Houston

Indiana

Georgia

Boise State

Georgetown

Illinois

Utah

Mississippi

Texas Tech