Saturday, January 24, 2015

Tulsa, Haith & The American

If you haven't been paying attention to the American and who can blame you, you might have missed that Tulsa is currently leading the conference with a 7-0 record. picked to finish in the middle of the conference and maybe make the NIT, the Golden Hurricane have positioned themselves for a potential NCAA bid.

Tulsa has a nice basketball history. It's been a bit of a cradle of coaches for college hoops. Nolan Richardson won a NOT title before moving onto Arkansas. Tubby Smith, Buzz Peterson & Bill Self all found success at Tulsa before moving onto greener pastures. Frank Haith has overachieved in his first year at new jobs. He guided Miami to the NIT his first year when the Hurricanes were picked to finish last in their 1st season in the ACC. He took an undermanned Missouri team to a 2-seed in his first year there. There is some history here.

The question is, is Tulsa for real? probably not. They come in at 58th in KenPom after today's win over ECU and are 114th in AdjustedO and 41st in AdjustedD. We don't have to dive that much further in the numbers to know while they may win the American, they'll need some breaks to do any damage come March. Effective FG% on defense for them is 45.5%, 63rd in the nation and they limit second chance points, with a a defensive rebounding % of 25.4%. That's 12th best. They guard without fouling but don't create a lot of turnovers to push the offense. On offense, they get to the line which is good but shoot only 66% from the charity stripe.

Prior to league play, Tulsa lost at home to Oklahoma and Southeast Oklahoma State. One of those is unlike the other. They also lost at Oral Roberts and Wichita State. Again, one is not like the other. It could be a team finding itself in conference play or it could be the conference is a hot mess.

Tulsa has a good basketball history and should be a good team in the American for years to come. This wasn't expected to be one of those years. A good story thus far, a regression is likely. They don't profile as a team built for a deep run in March but they've got a nice foundation.

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