It wasn't that long ago the Mountain West wasn't just a 2-bid league but we were talking 4-5 bids. They were the best conference in the west. This is not one of those years. The conference will probably send 2 teams to the dance but even that isn't a guaranty.
As of today, the conference RPI is 11, behind the WCC and Missouri Valley. Injuries, coaches leaving and UNLV underachieving are all among the reasons but let's focus on where the teams are today.
Wyoming, 15-2 (4-0): Wyoming looks like the best team in the league. Coach Larry Shyatt has done a great job and has likely conference POY in Larry Nance, Jr. Wyoming is currently 61st in KenPom and 80th in RPI. Wyoming doesn't have terrible losses, only losing to SMU and California. Their best win is over Colorado.
New Mexico, 11-5 (3-1): New Mexico lost G Cullen Neal for the season and things looked bleak. They have little on the resume and a loss to Grand Canyon but have started 3-1 in conference. They're 98th in RPI and 88th in KenPom. They'll need a big run in conference.
San Diego State, 12-4 (2-1): Barring a collapse in conference play, the Aztecs should make the dance. They have wins over Utah, BYU and Pitt, though that doesn't appear that impressive. A tough schedule should be rewarded. They're 44th in RPI and 38th in KenPom.
Colorado State, 15-2 (2-2): The Rams started the season 15-0, feasting on cupcakes with a W over Colorado. It wasn't an awful strategy as expectations weren't overly high but it makes a good run in conference imperative. They have a solid RPI of 21 but that's not indicative of how good they might are. They're 81st in KenPom. I'd expect a regression.
Boise State, 11-6 (1-3): Expectations were high for the Broncos this year but they haven't met those. Non-conference included a loss to Loyola (CH). A tourney bid seems like a long shot.
UNLV, 10-7 (1-3): As usual, UNLV is as maddening as any team in the nation. the Rebs have a nice win over Temple and a very good win over Arizona. And 7 losses, including a home loss to start conference play to Nevada. The numbers aren't pretty. The RPI is 106, KenPom is 121. Dave Rice may be coaching for his job.
It's not a great year for the Mountain West and I don't see a team capable of doing much come March.
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