Georgetown

I see Jon Rothstein already stole my idea but that's okay. After watching Georgetown dismantle Villanova and exorcise some Milwaukee demons, I thought it'd be worth looking at the Hoyas and see where they stack up this year and against years before where March brought Hoya tears.

This year's team is currently 23rd overall in KenPom and 30th in AdjustedO & 56th in AdjustedD. Those numbers indicate to me they're a good team but probably at best a Sweet 16 ceiling team. The numbers are eerily similar to where they ended the 2010-11 season. That year, they lost as a 6 seed to VCU. Brian's latest mock has them as a 6. Don't expect the same result, obviously. That VCU team was much better than an 11 seed.

It's a tad bit surprising a Georgetown team would be weaker on defense than offense. Georgetown is soft on the defensive glass (194th in defensive rebounding %) and put teams on the line. Their FTA/FGA rate is 276th on defense and opponents get 25% of their points at the line, well above the national average of 20.8%. They do block shots. they have the 15th best block % in the nation. If they can clean up the fouls, they'd be a more efficient defense. It's a small percentage of their overall defensive worth but in this case, it's a big enough number tightening it up makes a difference. Teams only have a 45.8% effective fg% against the Hoyas.

On offense, Georgetown is a much better offensive team to the eye. Watch them play and you see a team that is more fluid and has more options than in the past. This isn't Otto Porter and 4 "guys". The team is 38th in effective fg%, 52%. they shoot 51.6% on two-pointers. They shoot slightly above average from deep but aren't reliant on the deep ball only getting 22.5% of the offense that way. While they're a little weak on the defensive glass, they are better on the offensive side, getting 36.6% of misses. Josh Smith and Mikael Hopkins are two of the primary reasons. Smith is 12th in the nation in offensive rebounding %.

Smith is the best player on the team. The big man has been solid this year and against some teams, unguardable. He's a high usage guy when he's in the game but efficient. Smith also has a soft touch for a big manat the line, shooting a solid 70%. He plays 55% of the available minues vut still leads the team in attempts. If he stays on the court, Georgetown is a much better team.

The other star is JR. D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, DSR for short. DSR shoots 39% from deep and you don't want to foul him at the end of the game. He shoots 86% from the charity stripe. He plays a lot of minutes and is the heart and soul of the Hoyas. Seniors Jabril Trawick and Mikael Hopkins provide solid minutes. Trawick doesn't shoot a lot but is pretty efficient when he does, with an effective fg% of 52.4% and 44% from deep. Hopkins is the junkyard dog who is a solid rebounder.

Rothstein's piece covers the impact of Georgetown's freshmen class. During Saturday's broadcast, the announcers talked about the "Otto Porter type" players they were and that's a pretty good observation. All are pretty versatile. LJ Peak, Paul White, Tre Campbell & Isaac Copeland will be causing fits in the Big East for the next few seasons. Copeland was very impressive last week, tallying 17 in both games against Villanova and Marquette.

Georgetown is trending up. A Sweet 16 seems the ceiling now but it's possible they get to March looking better. I'm naturally wary given their recent history. Josh Smith is the key. With him, they'll be a tough team in March. They need him on the court, not always a given. Working in their favor is the blossoming freshmen to go with the solid upperclassmen. Let's see where they stand after league play. They might be a team currently flying under the radar worth a flyer in March.