Thursday Rambling

With Duke losing to Notre Dame they fall off the top line, replaced by Arizona.  I considered moving Duke all the way down to a 3 and pushing Notre Dame up to a 2 but for now I will leave the Devils as the last 2 spot and move Notre Dame ahead of VCU.

In bubble news, over the past couple days Temple, Davidson, and Iowa have entered the bracket with Wyoming, North Carolina State and Kansas State falling out.  Wyoming and Kansas State were in mostly due to their terrific conference play but since they no longer lead their conference their bloated RPI’s cannot be ignored.  I expect Wyoming to continue to be a player down the stretch.

Just hanging outside looking in, are BYU and Ole Miss.  That overtime loss to Kentucky looms large for the Rebels.

Wichita State

Brian has Wichita State making the Elite 8 which isn't far-fetched at all. The Shockers are worse than last year by the numbers but probably won't get Kentucky in the Round of 32 this year. Match-ups and lock. So important in March.

This team isn't as good as last year but actually profiles slightly better than the Final 4 team. They currently are 9th overall in KenPom. They get there by being 17th in AdjO and 26th in AdjD. Utah, Arizona, Kentucky & Virginia are the only other teams in the top 30 of either.

Wichita has an effective fg% of 51.6%, 71st overall. They protect the ball. Their turnover % is only 15.35, 9th best. They have a good 3-point shooting team, making 37.3%. Ron Baker is the deadliest of the group, making 40%. They are shaky at the line, making only 68.1% of their freebies. Despite that, they're not a team that gets to the line a ton, so it's more of a late game concern.

The best thing they do on defense is rebound. Opponents get 26.8% of their misses. That's 25th best in the nation. An area of concern is, teams get open looks from 3. Teams shoot 35.5% from deep. That's 246th best. That's a concern. Balancing that is, teams only make 43% from 2, so the effective defensive fg% is a respectable 46.2%. Also, the amount of scoring generated by opponents from deep is average with the rest of the nation. Still, in a one game setting, they're vulnerable to a good shooting team.

I mentioned Ron Baker before who is a familiar name. Also back is Fred Van Vleet and Tekele Cotton. Van Vleet, a JR., is a very solid PG. His assist rate is 37.7%, 16th best overall. Him and Baker really do an outstanding job of protecting the ball. Van Vleet also has a steal rate of 4.2%, 37th best. Weak back courts will be exposed by these two. Cotton, van Vleet & Baker play a lot of minutes. SR. Darius Carter is the "big man" at 6'7". Carter is the best rebounder the Shockers have. Coach Gregg Marshall will also play his freshmen and he's got 5 that have seen the court. Corey Henderson has gotten the most minutes.

The schedule doesn't tell us much. They lost by a bucket late at Utah and on a neutral court to George Washington. Best win is hard to pick. Memphis? Alabama? Seton Hall? They've won 7 straight to open the Valley season but haven't seen UNI yet. The last 5 have been double digit wins, the first 2 were by 8. I'm not sure it tells us much but 18-2 is 18-2.

There's little doubt this could be a team playing in an Elite 8. Great guards make them go and they have the experience if such things matter to you. As always, it's all about match-ups but a Shocker run shouldn't shock you. I just made that up.

Mid-Season Final Four

Seven weeks out to March Madness; time to put out an updated Elite Eight, Final Four, and Champion

Elite Eight:

Villanova

Wisconsin

Duke

Wichita St

Final Four

Virginia

Kentucky

Arizona

Gonzaga

Final

Kentucky over Gonzaga

Sleepers:

Utah

VCU

Georgetown

I see Jon Rothstein already stole my idea but that's okay. After watching Georgetown dismantle Villanova and exorcise some Milwaukee demons, I thought it'd be worth looking at the Hoyas and see where they stack up this year and against years before where March brought Hoya tears.

This year's team is currently 23rd overall in KenPom and 30th in AdjustedO & 56th in AdjustedD. Those numbers indicate to me they're a good team but probably at best a Sweet 16 ceiling team. The numbers are eerily similar to where they ended the 2010-11 season. That year, they lost as a 6 seed to VCU. Brian's latest mock has them as a 6. Don't expect the same result, obviously. That VCU team was much better than an 11 seed.

It's a tad bit surprising a Georgetown team would be weaker on defense than offense. Georgetown is soft on the defensive glass (194th in defensive rebounding %) and put teams on the line. Their FTA/FGA rate is 276th on defense and opponents get 25% of their points at the line, well above the national average of 20.8%. They do block shots. they have the 15th best block % in the nation. If they can clean up the fouls, they'd be a more efficient defense. It's a small percentage of their overall defensive worth but in this case, it's a big enough number tightening it up makes a difference. Teams only have a 45.8% effective fg% against the Hoyas.

On offense, Georgetown is a much better offensive team to the eye. Watch them play and you see a team that is more fluid and has more options than in the past. This isn't Otto Porter and 4 "guys". The team is 38th in effective fg%, 52%. they shoot 51.6% on two-pointers. They shoot slightly above average from deep but aren't reliant on the deep ball only getting 22.5% of the offense that way. While they're a little weak on the defensive glass, they are better on the offensive side, getting 36.6% of misses. Josh Smith and Mikael Hopkins are two of the primary reasons. Smith is 12th in the nation in offensive rebounding %.

Smith is the best player on the team. The big man has been solid this year and against some teams, unguardable. He's a high usage guy when he's in the game but efficient. Smith also has a soft touch for a big manat the line, shooting a solid 70%. He plays 55% of the available minues vut still leads the team in attempts. If he stays on the court, Georgetown is a much better team.

The other star is JR. D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera, DSR for short. DSR shoots 39% from deep and you don't want to foul him at the end of the game. He shoots 86% from the charity stripe. He plays a lot of minutes and is the heart and soul of the Hoyas. Seniors Jabril Trawick and Mikael Hopkins provide solid minutes. Trawick doesn't shoot a lot but is pretty efficient when he does, with an effective fg% of 52.4% and 44% from deep. Hopkins is the junkyard dog who is a solid rebounder.

Rothstein's piece covers the impact of Georgetown's freshmen class. During Saturday's broadcast, the announcers talked about the "Otto Porter type" players they were and that's a pretty good observation. All are pretty versatile. LJ Peak, Paul White, Tre Campbell & Isaac Copeland will be causing fits in the Big East for the next few seasons. Copeland was very impressive last week, tallying 17 in both games against Villanova and Marquette.

Georgetown is trending up. A Sweet 16 seems the ceiling now but it's possible they get to March looking better. I'm naturally wary given their recent history. Josh Smith is the key. With him, they'll be a tough team in March. They need him on the court, not always a given. Working in their favor is the blossoming freshmen to go with the solid upperclassmen. Let's see where they stand after league play. They might be a team currently flying under the radar worth a flyer in March.

Monday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Kentucky (SEC) vs AlaSt(SWAC)/Albany (Aest)

Virginia (ACC) vs Bucknell(Pat)/N.Fla(Asun)

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Robert Morris(NEC)

Duke vs New Mexico State (WAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Arizona (P12) vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

Wisconsin (B1G) vs GaSouthern(Sbelt)

Kansas (B12) vs Kent (MAC)

Villanova (Beast) vs High Point (Bsouth)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Wichita State (Valley) vs NC-Central (MEAC)

North Carolina vs Murray State (OVC)

Maryland vs SFA (Sland)

VCU (A10) vs Northeastern (Colonial)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Notre Dame vs Yale (Ivy)

West Virginia vs E.Washington (Bsky)

Iowa State vs Long Beach St (Bwest

Utah vs W.Kentucky (Cusa)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Oklahoma vs Wofford (SoCon)

Northern Iowa vs Iona (MAAC)

Louisville vs Green Bay (Horizon)

Butler vs Xavier/Oklahoma State

6 seed vs 11 seed

Providence vs NC State/Texas A&M

Baylor vs Old Dominion

Arkansas vs Tulsa (AAC)

Georgetown vs Kansas State

7 seed vs 10 seed

SMU vs Miami

Cincinnati vs Wyoming (Mwest)

Texas vs George Washington

Seton Hall vs Colorado State

8 seed vs 9 seed

Texas vs Ohio State

San Diego St vs LSU

Georgia vs Dayton

Stanford vs Michigan St

First Four Out

Davidson

Iowa

Syracuse

St. Johns

Next Four Out

Tennesee

Alabama

St. Mary's

Temple

Also Considered

Washington

Ole Miss

Rhode Island

Illinois

Boise State

UCLA

Umass

Pittsburgh

Florida

Oregon State

Michigan

Louisiana Tech

Oregon

New Mexico

Harvard

BYU

Nebraska

Connecticut

Is the Big Ten "Soft"?

I use the word soft in the most generic way possible. The conference is tough and competitive but one thing we can't call the play is physical. The league once known for physical play and stifling defense, is lacking in both this year.

Just glancing at KenPom's AdjustedD and there's only 1 team in the top 30 and that's an offensively challenged Nebraska team. Maryland is 31st but just let Indiana drop 89 points on them.

Typical defensive stalwarts Wisconsin & Michigan State are in the 60's and neither has been impressive on defense. Wisconsin allowed Michigan 1.22 PPP in the 2nd half last night. This without Caros LeVert.

Soft is an unfair term but this isn't a league with great defenses.

Tulsa, Haith & The American

If you haven't been paying attention to the American and who can blame you, you might have missed that Tulsa is currently leading the conference with a 7-0 record. picked to finish in the middle of the conference and maybe make the NIT, the Golden Hurricane have positioned themselves for a potential NCAA bid.

Tulsa has a nice basketball history. It's been a bit of a cradle of coaches for college hoops. Nolan Richardson won a NOT title before moving onto Arkansas. Tubby Smith, Buzz Peterson & Bill Self all found success at Tulsa before moving onto greener pastures. Frank Haith has overachieved in his first year at new jobs. He guided Miami to the NIT his first year when the Hurricanes were picked to finish last in their 1st season in the ACC. He took an undermanned Missouri team to a 2-seed in his first year there. There is some history here.

The question is, is Tulsa for real? probably not. They come in at 58th in KenPom after today's win over ECU and are 114th in AdjustedO and 41st in AdjustedD. We don't have to dive that much further in the numbers to know while they may win the American, they'll need some breaks to do any damage come March. Effective FG% on defense for them is 45.5%, 63rd in the nation and they limit second chance points, with a a defensive rebounding % of 25.4%. That's 12th best. They guard without fouling but don't create a lot of turnovers to push the offense. On offense, they get to the line which is good but shoot only 66% from the charity stripe.

Prior to league play, Tulsa lost at home to Oklahoma and Southeast Oklahoma State. One of those is unlike the other. They also lost at Oral Roberts and Wichita State. Again, one is not like the other. It could be a team finding itself in conference play or it could be the conference is a hot mess.

Tulsa has a good basketball history and should be a good team in the American for years to come. This wasn't expected to be one of those years. A good story thus far, a regression is likely. They don't profile as a team built for a deep run in March but they've got a nice foundation.

DePaul

A big road win against a ranked team tonight.  It may only be Seton Hall but this is a big step for them.  Usually I don't feel remorse for any team that I don't root for but DePaul is a different story.  I remember as a youth when Marquette would play them and it would be a big deal.  DePaul hasn't been relevant in decades.  It's a good bounce back for the Blue Demons and I'd love to see them be a player in the coming years.  Not at the expense of the Warriors of course, but relevant non the less.

No O in Luisville

If you watched the Duke-Louisville game this past Saturday, it would have been impossible to note just how bad the Louisville offense is. The commentary hovered around duke's use of a zone to stifle Louisville, but Louisville had plenty of good lucks and just can't shoot. They shot 18-61 from the field in a 60 possession game and started 7-31, going a 6 minute stretch in the 1st half without a bucket.

This isn't an isolated incident. Coach Rick Pitino admitted as much during his halftime interview that his team is offensively challenged. They're 80th in AdjustedO which isn't terrible but it's a clear indication this team isn't a serious threat in March. They shoot 29.4% from 3, that's 311th in the nation. It's a team wide epidemic. Their best deep threat is Terry Rozier who only shoots 34%. Wayne Blackshear has chucked 101 attempts, making only 31, a cool 30%. My pre-season POY Montrezl Harrell has been okay but hardly a candidate for that award. Teams have been able to limit his game without any long range threats and little production from the post helping him.

Louisville doesn't help themselves at the line, making only 66.5% of their freebies. They do a fair job getting to the charity stripe, too, and they're one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the land (Though, missing a lot probably helps!).

While Louisville has been a solid defensive team, 4th best in tempo-free, the offense will be a limiting factor. Unless it improves dramatically over the next few weeks, Louisville isn't a real threat come March and would be a prime choice as a potential upset victim.

Duke Back To a 1 seed

With Villanova getting pounded by Georgetown and Duke showing they are finally willing to adapt to the zone to protect their weaknesses flip flops the two between a 1 and 2 seed.  Kansas gets a solid follow up win after losing to Iowa State over the weekend.  Oklahoma's loss doesn't hurt much but Georgetown's win is big for their "computer" numbers.
Now that I don't care about football daily updates will be plentiful.  8 week and 2 days to March Madness, unless you count the play in games....which I don't.

OFF TOPIC: RANKING THE PACKERS PLAYOFF LOSSES IN CRUELTY

To this day, I can remember family members telling me on opening Sunday of 1988 as the Packers were being shutout by the Los Angeles Raiders, I'd never see a Packers Super Bowl victory and to give up being a fan. Yes, they told me that at age-12. I told myself all i ever wanted was one Super Bowl title in my life and I'd be satisfied. And I am. Fan bases out there have had far more painful experiences. Since 1993, the Packers have made 17 playoff appearances and won 2 Super Bowls and played for 6 NFC Titles. Packer fans are blessed beyond belief, anyone of my age knows how bad it can be. That's why I'm satisfied with 1. I know the darkness (Plus, I'm a Brewers and Bucks fan). Anyway, yesterday still stung. I started thinking about which losses were the worse. These are part personal and part calculated in my mind. Away we go.

15. 1993 NFC Divisional Round at Dallas- The Packers somehow beat the Lions at Pontiac on the opening Saturday despite being thoroughly whipped in that game. Expectations were low. They hadn't won a playoff game in a decade and hadn't been to the playoffs in a non-strike season since 1972. They played better than expected and weren't embarrassed against the defending champs.

14. 1994 NFC Divisional Round at Dallas- The '94 Packers snuck into the playoffs winning their last 3 games including the Dongslinger closing the Packers era at County Stadium in dramatic fashion over the Falcons. Once again, they beat the Lions this time at home with a defensive masterpiece. The Cowboys routed them but the Packers were without Sterling Sharpe who would be forced to retire. The prevailing thought after was this team had a LONG way to go but would be in the NFC title game a year later.

13. 2001 NFC Divisional Round at St. Louis- The Packers needed to be perfect against the "Greatest Show on Turf". Instead, the Dongslinger had gone full Dongslinger and tossed 6 interceptions, 3 of which were returned for touchdowns. To this day, Dongslinger apologists blame the wide receivers, the turf, the refs and even Barack Obama.

12. 2002 NFC Wild Card vs. Atlanta- The Michael Vick game as it's known. This one was a disaster at every level. The Packers were depleted by injuries. Darren Sharper, Terry Glenn & Chad Clifton were among the missing for the Packers who had blown a bye the previous week getting routed by the Jets. 3 more Dongslinger turnovers, special teams gaffes and more injuries through the course of the game ended the Packers season with a whimper.

11. 2004 NFC Wild Card vs. Minnesota- Though the Packers had swept the Vikings during the regular season, this team wasn't very good. The Dongslinger continued his terrible post-season tossing 4 picks and threw the worst illegal forward pass in NFL history that led to a missed FG. Randy Moss did moon the Packers fans. Joe Buck was not amused.

10. 2013 NFC Wild Card vs. San Francisco- I suppose this could be higher but this was an 8-7-1 team with a shaky defense. They had their opportunities as Micah Hyde dropped a potential game winning interception but for the 2nd straight year, Colin Kaepernick defeated the Packers leading the Niners on a drive at the end of the game tos et up a game-winning fg.

9. 2012 NFC Divisional Round at San Francisco- After a lackluster win over the Joe Webb run Vikings, the Packers journeyed to the west coast and were thoroughly dominated by the 49ers who unleashed the zone read on a completely unprepared team. Kaepernick set one record after another and the lasting image of this game is a bewildered Erik Walden chasing ghosts.

8. 2011 NFC Divisional Round vs. New York- If there has ever been a less impressive 15-1 team in the history of the NFL, I can't think of one. Maybe the 2004 Steelers. The defense was a ticking time bomb and the offense was uncharacteristically sloppy, a bad mix against a Giants team who made few mistakes. The game was over at half after a hail mary was answered. Laughingly, I remember arguing on twitter who was a better foe in the NFC title game the day before, the Saints or Niners. Never mind.

7. 2009 NFC Wild Card at Arizona- The Cardinals jumped all over the Packers who had whipped them the week before in a meaningless game to close the season. They lead 31-10 & 38-24 before the Packers forced a tie at 38. The teams traded touchdowns with the Packers scoring with 1:52 left. Neal Rackers missed a 34-yard fg at the end of regulation. The Packers won the toss (This was the last year of the old overtime rules before Peter King got sad about the Dongslinger game against NO) and Rodgers had a chance to win the game but missed a streaking Greg Jennings (I think it was him) for a potential game winning TD. Shortly after, the Cardinals sacked Rodgers who fumbled and the Cards returned it for a game winning TD.

6. 1998 Wild Card at San Francisco- I know for some, this game really sticks out. I've heard a lot of people say if the Packers win, they were going to their 3rd straight Super Bowl. Not so fast. I have my doubts they were beating Minnesota the following week who had torched them during the regular season and Holmgren was already packing his bags for his next job. Though the Dongslinger had 2 picks, he also lead the Packers down the field to take the lead late in the 4th quarter. The Packers had a chance to stop the Niners and since instant replay wasn't available, an apparent Jerry Rice fumble wasn't called as such and a few plays later, the Catch II happened and the rest is history.

5. 1995 NFC Championship at Dallas- The Packers lead the game heading into the 4th quarter and had played valiantly against the favored Cowboys. Emmitt Smith scored a TD after a long drive to give the Cowboys the lead but the Packers responded with a good drive that was thwarted by a pre-Dongslinger interception by Larry Brown. Two plays later, the Cowboys had a 38-27 lead and were on their way to their 3rd title in 4 years. This one stung, knowing the Packers were 1 quarter from the promised land and because they had lost to the Cowboys for the 3rd straight year. Also, I had to drive 4 hours back to Eau Claire in my awfully unsafe 1983 Ford Escort with no heat.

4. 2003 NFC Divisional Round at Philadelphia- Any last shred of "like" I had for the Dongslinger was forever lost after his colossally stupid interception in overtime that gave the Eagles the victory. Oh, sure 4th and 26 to FedEx Freddie Mitchell was so egregious 4th and 26 actually means something. Oh, sure Mike Sherman mismanaging goal line situations was preposterous but that interception was so bad and so so unnecessary it still burns me to this day.

3. 2007 NFC Championship Game vs. New York- I had a business overnight that week in Fond du Lac and despite being two billion below zero, I still gamely hit the happening bar scene. eventually, the discussion came to the game. I told my boss the only way the Packers lose is if the Dongslinger plays like the Dongslinger and is careless. Yes, it was cold. Yes, the Giants abused Al Harris but the Packers were given so many breaks in the game but still found a way to lose when the Dongslinger threw another terrible overtime interception ending his Packer career fittingly. I had a Packers party that night and immediately kicked everyone out.

2. Yesterday- Fuck Russell Wilson and Fuck Badger fans that worship him

1. Super Bowl XXXII vs. Denver- No loss can ever be as devastating. The game began like everyone expected, the Packers marched down the field and scored on a pre-Donsglinger to Freeman pass. And then, disaster. The Packers coaching staff was fully unprepared for the onslaught the Broncos defense unleashed in the first half and the defense couldn't contain Terrell Davis. Big fat idiot Gabe Wilkins begged out with an injury depleting the d-line depth as he protected pending free agent status. It's little consolation he was a bust after. Mike Holmgren couldn't keep track of downs and let Terrell Davis score the winning TD late. With the game on the line, Holmgren called a play the team hadn't run all year and pre-Dongslinger's pass fell incomplete. The game plan was a disaster, the NFC's 14 year streak of dominance ended and I went to bed probably in a clinical state of shock. People too young to remember this have no idea what a monumental upset this was. It's easily the 2nd greatest upset in Super Bowl history.

Thanks for reading

Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Kentucky (SEC) vs G.Canyon(WAC)/Albany (Aest)

Virginia (ACC) vs Monmouth(MAAC)/Colgate (Pat)

Villanova (Beast) vs Oral Roberts (Summit)

Gonzaga (WCC) vs North Florida (Asun)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Duke vs T.Southern(SWAC)

Arizona (P12) vs Monroe (Sbelt)

Wisconsin (B1G) vs St.Francis-NY (NEC)

Kansas (B12) vs Sam Houston (Sland)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Wichita State (Valley) vs UC-Davis (Bwest)

Maryland vs Murray State (OVC)

North Carolina vs High Point (Bsouth)

Iowa State vs NC-Central (MEAC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

VCU (A10) vs Northeastern (Colonial

West Virginia vs W.Kentucky (Cusa)

Oklahoma vs E.Washington (Bsky)

Utah vs Green Bay (Horizon)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Seton Hall vs Wofford (SoCon)

Northern Iowa vs Buffalo (MAC)

Texas vs Harvard (Ivy)

Louisville vs Xavier/St.Marys

6 seed vs 11 seed

Butler vs LSU/St.Johns

Providence vs Syracuse

San Diego St (Mwest) vs Tulsa (AAC)

Notre Dame vs Colorado State

7 seed vs 10 seed

Baylor vs Oklahoma State

Arkansas vs Georgia

Georgetown vs George Washington

Old Dominion vs Indiana

8 seed vs 9 seed

Dayton vs NC State

Iowa vs Cincinnati

Stanford vs Ohio State

SMU vs Michigan St

First Four Out

Miami

Wyomng

BYU

Connecticut

Next Four Out

Tennesee

Kansas State

Davidson

Washington

Also Considered

Texas A&M

Ole Miss

Alabama

Rhode Island

Illinois

Boise State

Temple

UCLA

Umass

Pittsburgh

Florida

Loyola

UTEP

Oregon State

Michigan

Louisiana Tech

Oregon

New Mexico

TCU

Mountain West

It wasn't that long ago the Mountain West wasn't just a 2-bid league but we were talking 4-5 bids. They were the best conference in the west. This is not one of those years. The conference will probably send 2 teams to the dance but even that isn't a guaranty.

As of today, the conference RPI is 11, behind the WCC and Missouri Valley. Injuries, coaches leaving and UNLV underachieving are all among the reasons but let's focus on where the teams are today.

Wyoming, 15-2 (4-0): Wyoming looks like the best team in the league. Coach Larry Shyatt has done a great job and has likely conference POY in Larry Nance, Jr. Wyoming is currently 61st in KenPom and 80th in RPI. Wyoming doesn't have terrible losses, only losing to SMU and California. Their best win is over Colorado.

New Mexico, 11-5 (3-1): New Mexico lost G Cullen Neal for the season and things looked bleak. They have little on the resume and a loss to Grand Canyon but have started 3-1 in conference. They're 98th in RPI and 88th in KenPom. They'll need a big run in conference.

San Diego State, 12-4 (2-1): Barring a collapse in conference play, the Aztecs should make the dance. They have wins over Utah, BYU and Pitt, though that doesn't appear that impressive. A tough schedule should be rewarded. They're 44th in RPI and 38th in KenPom.

Colorado State, 15-2 (2-2): The Rams started the season 15-0, feasting on cupcakes with a W over Colorado. It wasn't an awful strategy as expectations weren't overly high but it makes a good run in conference imperative. They have a solid RPI of 21 but that's not indicative of how good they might are. They're 81st in KenPom. I'd expect a regression.

Boise State, 11-6 (1-3): Expectations were high for the Broncos this year but they haven't met those. Non-conference included a loss to Loyola (CH). A tourney bid seems like a long shot.

UNLV, 10-7 (1-3): As usual, UNLV is as maddening as any team in the nation. the Rebs have a nice win over Temple and a very good win over Arizona. And 7 losses, including a home loss to start conference play to Nevada. The numbers aren't pretty. The RPI is 106, KenPom is 121. Dave Rice may be coaching for his job.

It's not a great year for the Mountain West and I don't see a team capable of doing much come March.

Underrated

Gonzaga – Sure they are a two seed and ranked #3 but this is a Real Title contender.  If I told you a freshman who’s dad is a Hall of Famer was averaging 10 points and 6 rebounds on 70% shooting while only averaging 20 minutes a game played for Kentucky it would be on the front page of ESPN every day.  What if I told you that player is probably only the 5^th or 6^th best player on his team?  Donatas Sabonis has the makings of a stud player and he comes off the bench for Gonzaga….which is why he gets no press.  The Zags are loaded.  4 year starters at guard(Bell and Pangos), a transfer from USC (Wesley), a true center (Karnowski) plus Sabonis?  That’s a title contender….oh, and I forgot their best player, Kyle Wiltjer.  A stretch forward shooting 44% from behind the arc.  So let’s see….veteran guards, a stretch big, a true center, and a couple scrappy players who fill their roles?  Yeah, that’s a title contender.  BTW, their only loss is to Arizona in overtime.

North Carolina – I know, surprising I have them here but it’s true.  They’ve had their shooting woes but they look to be snapping out of it lately.  The win over Louisville was huge and all 4 of their losses have come against teams currently in the field.  If Marcus Paige brings back even some of last year’s magic they are going to be a force.

VCU – All 3 losses are tournament teams and 2 of them are currently on Joe Lunardi’s top level, Villanova and Virginia.  Their defense is still good but the surprising part is their offense which ranks in the top 15 in KenPom efficiency.  Once again they’ve challenged themselves in the non-conference and will be a tough out in March.

Florida – I’m not just trying to cover myself here since I had high hopes for them going into the season (a 3 seed).  This team is young and on their way up.  If you take out the 11 point loss to top 10 North Carolina and the 6 point loss to #1 Kentucky, their other 4 losses are by a total of 7 points.  They are in the top 50 in offense efficiency and top 20 in defense.  They will continue to rack up wins in the SEC and before you know it that 9-6 record will be 20-8 and they will be right around the 5 seed range.

Top 10 Whacked: Cause for Concern?

Yesterday was a tough day for the Top 10 in college hoops as 3 teams failed to make enough "basketball moves". Was it a blip on the radar or were there signs for concern>? Let's take a quick look.

Duke: Duke has been very impressive this year. Offensively, they remain their dynamic selves but what really was the story was how much better they were on defense this year. They ended last year 116th in AdjustedD. No other way to cut it, that's terrible for an elite program and can't be overcome no matter how good they may have been on defense. Yesterday's loss dropped them to 35th in that category. Will it continue to drop or hover there? Wisconsin made the Final 4 49th in that category last year. Duke probably doesn't want to fall below that. NC State shot 63% from deep and some of that is luck but they had a lot of open looks. Let's watch how teams shoot from range in the next few weeks.

Wisconsin: My initial reaction is this, it's a bad loss but it's without a National POY candidate, on a Sunday night in January in Jersey. Rutgers is terrible and B1G teams will hate this trip every time. College kids lose focus. The larger concern is the injuries. Bo wasn't going deep with his rotation to begin with and if Kaminsky and Traevon Jackson are out an extended period, Wisconsin will be vulnerable. It sounds like Kaminsly should be back sooner than later but the Jackson ankle sounds a bit more troubling. Badger fans aren't that fond of Jackson but So. Bronson Koenig can't play 30-35 minutes a night. In what is unbelievable to me, they're actually playing slower this year, averaging 2 less possessions a game. Blah.

Arizona: In what surprised me, Arizona is actually playing faster this year and the offense looks a lot like last year. The defense is slightly worse and Oregon State took advantage of that last night. I think the Wildcats play too tight in close games and it's a reflection of the coach. Arizona by the numbers looks to play aggressive on offense. They get to the line at a solid clip but aren't good FT shooters. They shoot okay from deep but don't take a lot. They're the opposite of Duke, let's watch how they fare offensively the next few weeks.

Monday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Kentucky (SEC) vs NMSt(WAC)/Albany (Aest)

Virginia (ACC) vs Bob Morris(NEC)/NDState(Summit)

Wisconsin (B1G) vs Boston (Pat)

Duke vs Monmouth (MAAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs T.Southern(SWAC)

Kansas (B12) vs Lafayette (Sbelt)

Villanova (Beast) vs UC-Davis (Bwest)

Utah (P12) vs C.Carolina (Bsouth)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Wichita State (Valley) vs Florida Gulf Coast (Asun)

Arizona (P12) vs Murray State (OVC)

Maryland vs Hofstra (Colonial)

North Carolina vs NC-Central (MEAC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Louisville vs Sam Houston (Sland)

VCU (A10) vs W.Kentucky (Cusa)

West Virginia vs E.Washington (Bsky)

Iowa State vs Wofford (SoCon)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Arkansas vs Green Bay (Horizon)

Seton Hall vs Buffalo (MAC)

Oklahoma vs Wyomng (Mwest

Colorado State vs Syracuse/Xavier

6 seed vs 11 seed

Northern Iowa vs Tulsa (AAC)

Butler vs St. Johns/Alabama

Providence vs Harvard (Ivy)

Texas vs Indiana

7 seed vs 10 seed

Baylor vs NC State

Notre Dame vs Michigan St

Georgetown vs George Washington

Old Dominion vs Oklahoma State

8 seed vs 9 seed

San Diego State vs Cincinnati

Iowa vs Dayton

Stanford vs Ohio State

LSU vs SMU

First Four Out

Temple

Illinois

BYU

Penn State

Next Four Out

Connecticut

Rhode Island

St. Mary's

UCLA

Also Considered

Georgia Tech

Georgia

Washington

Loyola

Davidson

Umass

Ole Miss

South Carolina

Boise State

Colorado

Tennesee

Miami

Florida

Evansville

Rutgers

Oregon

Pittsburgh

UTEP

California

Minnesota

TCU

Louisiana Tech

UNLV