Westwood Ho

In Brian's bracket on Monday, he had the UCLA Bruins as a 7-seed. Didn't think much of it until I ran through some KenPom numbers and saw UCLA was in the top 25 on both sides of the ball and 18th overall. At 18-5 (7-3), 7 seems low until we look closer but as a 7 (I think they could go higher), the numbers indicate a team that could be dangerous.

UCLA profiles in the bracket so low because they haven't beaten anyone of note. KenPom rating has them with the 220th toughest schedule overall. Their best non-conference win is probably Alabama. They lost at Mizzou and got throttled by Duke on a neutral court. They don't have a terrible conference loss. Losing on the road at Utah and Oregon State this year is no great deal. But could they bea threat as a 6-8 seed team? Yeah, I think so, though I'll always doubt a Steve Alford-coached team.

As I noted earlier, they're a top 25 team in adjusted defense and offense. On offense, they are 23rd. One of the criticisms Ben Howland faced was, his teams were plodding and defensive minded, playin limited possessions. When AD Dan Guerrero was looking for his replacement, fans and Deadhead alumni wanted someone to play up-tempo. That's why there were so many chuckles when they hired Alford. Historically, Alford coached teams played low-tempo games. To his credit or to appease the base, his Bruins team has been an up-tempo team. They're 17th in pace, avergaing 71.6 possessions per game.

The Bruins can shoot well. They have an effective fg% of 54.3%, 23rd best. From deep, they are 18th best in the nation, shooting 39.5%. In the paint, they are 38th, shooting 52.4%. They protect the ball. The turnover % is only 15.1%, 19th best. They're average on the glass in getting misses and don't get to the line at a great clip but do shoot 75% at the line. That would rank them 23rd in the nation.

They're definitely not as polished on defense as the best Ben Howland teams were but they're not slouches either. Overall, they rank 24th in adjusted d. Teams shoot an effective fg% of 49% which is about the national average. They're decent on the glass. Opponents only get 29% of their misses and they don't overally foul. Opponent FTA/FGA is 35.7%, 78th best. They do a nice job forcing turnovers. Their turnover % is 21.4%, 34th and have a steal % of 14.4%, 2nd best oevrall.

The Bruins two best players are sophomores. 6'9" Kyle Anderson plays a variety of roles, including handling the ball on offense. He scores 15.1ppg and grabs 8.7 boards per game. On top of that, he averages 6.7 dimes a game. he doesn;t shoot many 3's but is 20-40 on the season. His running mate, Jordan Adams scores 16.8ppg to lead UCLA. He also adds 5.7 boards per game. Adams has the 6th best individual steal % in college, 5.3%. Alford's son, Bryce has provided quality minutes as well. Alford doesn't make a ton of 3's either but does shoot 40% from deep.

UCLA strikes me as a team that will vex me when filling out a bracket. The numbers tell you they can probably beat just about anyone but they haven't. They got to the Bay Area next week. That will give me a better idea how good they might be. Their game at Stanford is the only game their an underdog according to KenPom and the game at Cal, they're not big favorites, maybe a bucket. They don't have Arizona again after losing to them at home at the beginning of conference play (They could meet in the Pac-12 tournament, of course). I think they could surprise some people and make a run during the tournament. I just have a hard time seeing a Steve Alford team do it, though. Fair or not, how they play in March will define him and his teams.