Monday, February 24, 2014

Mustang Rally

Some locals here in Milwaukee scoffed at the notion that Buzz Williams would entertain the SMU job a few years back even as reports surfaced they wanted to make a splash in hiring their new head coach. Well, shortly after those rumors surfaced, Larry brown took the job. A lot of basketball pundits laughed at Brown and SMU. How could a 70-something coach notorious for career wandering win at SMU and what was SMU thinking?

Well, two years later, SMU looks poised to return to the NCAA tournament and are definitely poised for success after this season as well as Brown continues to attract top recruits to Dallas. Brown took the job and brought Tim Jankovich who had been the head coach at Illinois State as his Associate Head Coach. The Mustangs are currently projected as 9 seed by Brian and barring a collapse, will be dancing.

The biggest strike against SMU was their lack of a "signature" win on the road this season. They lost to Virginia on a neutral court and at Arkansas. Their best win was a win over Texas A&M on a neutral court. They also have bad losses on the road in conference to South Florida and Temple. They have won at home. And convincingly. They beat Memphis by 15, Cincinnati by 21 & UConn by 9. They finally got a road win yesterday over a good UConn team. They have a chance to help the resume as they have a home game against Louisville and a road game at Memphis.

The affair of SMU and the punditry has been amusing. After routing Cincinnati a few weeks back, they were the toast of the American but a loss a week later to Temple and lot of the same people pumped the breaks on SMU. Now, again, after yesterday's win, it's a love affair. SMU is dancing but I'm not sure they're a threat to a 1-seed like some think they are.

They're 22nd overall in KenPom, 60th in adjusted O and 14th in adjusted in D. They have an effective fg% of 53.6%. They shoot 36.6% from deep and 53.2% in the paint. Shooting (50% of four factors) is their strongest attribute. They turn it over too much. They have a turnover % of 20%, 293rd in the nation and a steal % of 11.5%, 343rd. They do a decent job on the glass with an offensive rebounding % of 35.6%, 71st in the nation.

They are better on the defensive side. They have the nation's 2nd best defensive fg% of 42.9%. Teams only shoot 30.7% from deep and 40.8% from the paint. They force turnovers just about as much as they give it away, with a 20.9% turnover %. They are adequate on the glass. Opponents have an offensive rebounding % of 30.3%.

They are a team of transfers and young players. Their leading scorer is sophomore PG Nic Moore who gets 14.2ppg with 4.6 assists per game. He shoots 44.6% from 3. He followed Coach Jankovich from Illinois State. Fellow sophomore, Markus Kennedy gives them 12ppg and 7rpg. Kennedy came from Villanova and blocks 1.5 shots per game. He is a weak FT shooter, making only 57%. JUCO C Yanick Moreira gives the Mustangs 7 & %. He just recently returned from injury. Last year's leading scorer, Nick Russell is a bit of a jack-of-all trades. He scores 9ppg and gets 3 boards and assists per. He scored 14ppg last year. Super frosh Keith Frazier from Dallas has seen limited minutes but has shown flashes of what made him a top-10 recruit.

If Smu ends up in that 7-10 range of seeding, you'll hear talk of them being a team that can win in the round of 32, largely because of Larry Brown. While Brown is a Hall of Famer and basketball savant, his team does have limitations. Making the tournament and winning a game would be a great season for SMU. With Louisville gone next year and Cinicinnati graduating a lot of key players, SMU will be one of the favorites next season in the American.

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