The Defending Champ

In Brian's latest mock, he has Louisville as a 5 seed. And it's right where they belong. To this point, their best win is either a road win at UConn or a home win against SMU. Good teams, hardly considered top tier. Out of conference, the Cards best win is Southern Miss. They've lost at home against Cincinnati and an erratic Memphis team. They lost early in the year to North Carolina who we can't be certain what they are and lost to a similar team in Kentucky. In fairness, Kentucky has been lights out at Rupp.

All this being said, if you're a 1-seed in the Sweet 16 or even a 4-seed in the Round of 32 (sigh), do you want to see Louisville? They're not as good as last years team but the numbers tell us they're still a pretty good team. As of today, they're 5th overall in KenPom, 13th on offense and 14th on defense.

Offensively, Louisville has been averaging 82 ppg in the AAC, best in the league. They have an effective fg% of 54.3%, 22nd best in the nation. The Cardinals shoot 37.3% from deep (60th)and 53.4% from 2 (23rd). They protect the ball. Their turnover % is 15.2%, 23rd best. Opponents steal % is 6.2%. That makes them 4th best at preventing steals. They get to misses as well. The Cards offensive rebounding % is 37.1%, 28th best. The area of concern is how they shoot from the line. They are 284th in the land with a 66.4% ft%. They get to the line at just above the national clip.

On the other side of the ball, they hold opponents to a 44.4% effective fg%, 23rd best. Teams shoot only 30% from deep (28th) and 44% from inside the arc (41st). The Cardinals have a defensive turnover % of 24.9%, 3rd best. They have a steal % of 13.8%, 4th best. Like a good Pitino team, they force turnovers to help generate offense. They foul a bit above the national average and will give up rebounds to the opposing offenses. Their defensive rebounding % is 33.5%, 258th.

Senior Russ Smith is the maddening player who makes the Cardinals go. Smith shoots 40% from deep and scores 18.3ppg. Smith can play out of control at times, trying to carry a larger burden than he may need to. Sophmore F Montrzel Harrell give sthem 12.6 & 8.2 boards. He's one of their bad FT shooters, only making 46% from the line. Harrell might be the best overall player on the team. The hero from last year's run in March, Luke Hancock has been a good player for Louisville but he's been far less effective, shooting only 30% from deep and 41% overall. Can he find his groove as the season winds down and heads into tourney play? If so, the Cardinals become more dangerous.

Losing Chase Behanan hurt them but he was given more than enough chances to get his act together. Coupled with the graduations of Siva and Dieng, the Cards lost 3 key pieces. Harrell and Hancock need to be more than just complimentary pieces. Harrell certainly can be that.

I'm not sure what to make of Louisville as we move forward. The team numbers tell you they can run with just about anyone. Would you be shocked if they were to beat a Syracuse, Wichita, Arizona or Florida in March? I also can't say I'd be shocked if they were to lose early. Let's see how they handle some road trips here in the AAC down the stretch.