Brian mentioned Conference USA earlier and how tight the top of the league is. With its new configuration, it's almost certain they'll only get 1-bid. Even though that's true, it's also true as Brian mentioned, how fun the final week and tournament will be. Here's how they stack up as of today:
1. Southern Miss, 11-3 (24-5) - 70th KP
Louisiana Tech, 11-3 (23-6) - 49th KP
Middle Tennessee, 11-3 (21-8) - 88th KP
Tulsa, 11-3 (16-12) - 78th KP
2. UTEP, 10-4 (20-9) - 93rd KP
All of these teams have good coaches. Donnie Tyndall at USM, Michael White at LaTech, Kermit Davis, Jr. at Middle Tennessee and Danny Manning has done a good job at Tulsa turning them around in his 2nd season. At UTEP, Tim Floyd has had a very Tim Floyd year. Gets into an altercation with Andy Enfield and loses 3 players to a gambling investigation.
The best wins amongst the four were a win for Louisiana Tech at Oklahoma and UTEP beat Tennessee on a neutral court.
Whoever comes out of here, especially if it's Louisiana Tech, will be a tough 12 or 13 for some team
Friday, February 28, 2014
Friday Bracketology
| 1 seed vs 16 seed | ||||||||||||||||||
| Florida (SEC) vs AlaSt(SWAC)/HighPoint(Bsouth) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Arizona (P12) vs Utah Valley(WAC)/WeberSt(Bsky) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Wichita State (MVC) vs Robert Morris (NEC) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Syracuse vs Davidson (SoCon) | ||||||||||||||||||
| 2 seed vs 15 seed | ||||||||||||||||||
| Kansas (B12) vs NC-Central (MEAC) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Villanova vs Vermont (Aeast) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Wisconsin vs UC-Irvine (Bwest) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Creighton (Beast) vs Western Michigan (MAC) | ||||||||||||||||||
| 3 seed vs 14 seed | ||||||||||||||||||
| Iowa State vs Boston (Pat) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Michigan (B1G) vs Georgia St (Sbelt) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Duke vs Mercer(Asun) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Virginia (ACC) vs Delaware (Colonial) | ||||||||||||||||||
| 4 seed vs 13 seed | ||||||||||||||||||
| San Diego St (MWC) vs Iona (MAAC) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Cincinnati (AAC) vs Belmont (OVC) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Michigan State vs Southern Miss (Cusa) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Louisville vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland) | ||||||||||||||||||
| 5 seed vs 12 seed | ||||||||||||||||||
| St. Louis (A10) vs North Dakota St (Summit) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Texas vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon) | ||||||||||||||||||
| North Carolina vs Harvard (Ivy) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Oklahoma vs Minnesota/Arkansas | ||||||||||||||||||
| 6 seed vs 11 seed | ||||||||||||||||||
| Ohio State vs Baylor/Oregon | ||||||||||||||||||
| Kentucky vs BYU | ||||||||||||||||||
| Iowa vs Providence | ||||||||||||||||||
| Massachusettes vs California | ||||||||||||||||||
| 7 seed vs 10 seed | ||||||||||||||||||
| vs Oklahoma State | ||||||||||||||||||
| Memphis vs Xavier | ||||||||||||||||||
| UCLA vs George Washington | ||||||||||||||||||
| New Mexico vs Colorado | ||||||||||||||||||
| 8 seed vs 9 seed | ||||||||||||||||||
| VCU vs St. Joseph's | ||||||||||||||||||
| Pittsburgh vs Stanford | ||||||||||||||||||
| Kansas State vs Arizona State | ||||||||||||||||||
SMU vs Gonzaga (WCC)
|
Friday's Thoughts
Let’s jump right into last night’s happenings. Ohio State ends up getting swept by Penn
State and will no doubt lose a seed line or two. St. Louis lost at home to Duquesne and the
same goes for them when it comes to seeding.
Memphis finally collected a bad loss but still remains in the 7 seed
line or so. On the bubble Georgetown
lost to Marquette which was huge for both teams. The Warriors move up to the Next Four Out and
are closing the gap. Georgetown falls
out of the bracket entirely.
Replacing Georgetown in this morning’s bracket is Arkansas
backed by their upset win over Kentucky.
The Razorbacks are now 2-1 against the top 25 RPI which looks good to the
committee. What doesn’t is their 176th
ranked non-conference strength of schedule.
That may come back to haunt them if they don’t finish strong. Also falling out of the bracket due to no
longer leading their conference are Middle Tennessee State, UC-Santa Barbara,
and New Mexico State. Replacing them are
UC-Irvine, bubble team Southern Miss, and Utah Valley State. Two thing to note from that group are that
Conference USA is shaping up to be a great conference tournament to pay
attention to. There is a 4 way tie at
the top with Tulsa only 1 game out.
Right now they are a 1 bid league so the next two weeks are huge. The other note is the end of the New Mexico
State, Utah Valley State game last night when the fans rushed the floor only to
get into a fight with the NMst players.
The NWst player who through the ball at the Utah player should be
suspended but can we please end the court storming thing now? You’re Utah Valley Freaking State.
Watch for the next Bracket coming out over lunch plus I’m
putting together my High Seed Most Likely to Lose article which correctly
picked Georgetown on March 4th last year. They were upset by Florida Gulf Coast in the
first round.
Thursday, February 27, 2014
Embrace Debate: Wichita State
I was born in 1975. 5 months later, Bobby Knight's Indiana Hooisers capped off an undefeated season and won the General's 1st title. Since that time, Larry Bird's Indiana State and 1991's UNLV Runnin' Rebels are the only other two teams to enter March madness with no losses.
Oh, we've been close since. St. Joe's made it to the A-10 tournament in 2004 before losing. Illinois made it to the last game of the 2005 regular season before losing. Memphis won 26 straight games in 2008 before losing to Tennessee in late February and then not losing until the national title game.
In other words, what Wichita State is doing and trying to do, is quite special. It's historical and spending time arguing about "worthiness" or "how good" is quite silly. Going undefeated in this era would qualify as one of the most remarkable things we have witnessed.
As for knocking Wichita, let's take a look at how they've reached 30 wins.
The Shockers entered the season coming off a mgical run to the Final Four in 2013. They beat Pittsburgh in convincing fashion before knocking off the 1-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs. Before you criticize Gonzaga of 2013, let me remind you they finished 5th in KenPom in 2013 and had all of 3 losses. Wichita beat a 13 seed, LaSalle, their "only" break as they marched to a Final 4. They beat Ohio State to reach the Final 4 before losing to eventual champ Louisville in the national semi-finals. To get to that point, they beat 3 of KenPom's top 11 teams. That's impressive.
Wichita State lost key players Carl Hall and Malcolm Armstead from last season's team but were still expected to win the Missouri Valley Conference this season. But they returned their best player Cleanthony Early and two backcourt studs Ron Baker and Fred Van Vleet. These are three guys that could play anywhere and for anyone in this country. They have talent that will compete with you. They entered the season with great players coming off great success.
In non-conference, the Shockers handled BYU on a neutral court, at Alabama and on a neutral court over Tennessee. Their best win was at St. Louis. The Billikens currently reside in the Top-10 and top-20 in KP. They have 2 losses. That's harldy imposing, no doubt but like most teams in a mid-major, scheduling isn't easy, especially when you've had recent success. Kansas doesn't want anything to do with them. Where's the upside for the Jayhawks? Such is the life of the successful mid-major. Sadly, rumors of the A-10 approaching Wichita don't surprise me.
The Valley has been arguably the worst it's been in some time. Creighton would have been a great foil for the Shockers but they're busy leading the Big East. Indiana State is a talented team that has probably underperformed. This is the truth and part of why people knock Wichita State. But ask yourself this, how many teams go undefeated in conference play?
Well, here's who is undefeated thus far in conference play this season:
- St. Louis, 12-0, A-10
- Stephen F. Austin, 14-0, Southland
It's not easy winning in conference. There's a variety of reasons. Travel, familiarity, bad luck, bad night, etc. Why is Michigan needing a buzzer beater to win at Purdue? Virginia is a few seconds from beating Duke. Things happen.
To get to 30-0 is amazing anyway you slice it. They might lose at Arch Madness. Some will rejoice so someone who "truly deserves" a 1-seed will/may get it. That's fine. As for me, I'll be rooting for Wichita State to go as long as they can as an undefeated team. I've never seen it at this level and this would be no fluke. The Shockers are for real and a great team we should all appreciate.
Oh, we've been close since. St. Joe's made it to the A-10 tournament in 2004 before losing. Illinois made it to the last game of the 2005 regular season before losing. Memphis won 26 straight games in 2008 before losing to Tennessee in late February and then not losing until the national title game.
In other words, what Wichita State is doing and trying to do, is quite special. It's historical and spending time arguing about "worthiness" or "how good" is quite silly. Going undefeated in this era would qualify as one of the most remarkable things we have witnessed.
As for knocking Wichita, let's take a look at how they've reached 30 wins.
The Shockers entered the season coming off a mgical run to the Final Four in 2013. They beat Pittsburgh in convincing fashion before knocking off the 1-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs. Before you criticize Gonzaga of 2013, let me remind you they finished 5th in KenPom in 2013 and had all of 3 losses. Wichita beat a 13 seed, LaSalle, their "only" break as they marched to a Final 4. They beat Ohio State to reach the Final 4 before losing to eventual champ Louisville in the national semi-finals. To get to that point, they beat 3 of KenPom's top 11 teams. That's impressive.
Wichita State lost key players Carl Hall and Malcolm Armstead from last season's team but were still expected to win the Missouri Valley Conference this season. But they returned their best player Cleanthony Early and two backcourt studs Ron Baker and Fred Van Vleet. These are three guys that could play anywhere and for anyone in this country. They have talent that will compete with you. They entered the season with great players coming off great success.
In non-conference, the Shockers handled BYU on a neutral court, at Alabama and on a neutral court over Tennessee. Their best win was at St. Louis. The Billikens currently reside in the Top-10 and top-20 in KP. They have 2 losses. That's harldy imposing, no doubt but like most teams in a mid-major, scheduling isn't easy, especially when you've had recent success. Kansas doesn't want anything to do with them. Where's the upside for the Jayhawks? Such is the life of the successful mid-major. Sadly, rumors of the A-10 approaching Wichita don't surprise me.
The Valley has been arguably the worst it's been in some time. Creighton would have been a great foil for the Shockers but they're busy leading the Big East. Indiana State is a talented team that has probably underperformed. This is the truth and part of why people knock Wichita State. But ask yourself this, how many teams go undefeated in conference play?
Well, here's who is undefeated thus far in conference play this season:
- St. Louis, 12-0, A-10
- Stephen F. Austin, 14-0, Southland
It's not easy winning in conference. There's a variety of reasons. Travel, familiarity, bad luck, bad night, etc. Why is Michigan needing a buzzer beater to win at Purdue? Virginia is a few seconds from beating Duke. Things happen.
To get to 30-0 is amazing anyway you slice it. They might lose at Arch Madness. Some will rejoice so someone who "truly deserves" a 1-seed will/may get it. That's fine. As for me, I'll be rooting for Wichita State to go as long as they can as an undefeated team. I've never seen it at this level and this would be no fluke. The Shockers are for real and a great team we should all appreciate.
It's Getting Tighter...
Not a good night for Bubble teams outside the bracket. Nebraska, Boise State, West Virginia, Indiana
State, and North Carolina State all lose.
Indiana State will be dropped from the Also Considered group and can
only get in with an Automatic Bid. West
Virginia, Boise State, and North Carolina State barely hang on and almost
certainly cannot lose another game.
Dropping out of the bracket are Toledo who no longer owns
the MAC Auto Bid and Richmond who got throttled at George Mason. Western Michigan takes the MAC Auto Bid and
slides in as a 15 seed while Toledo goes out to the Also Considered. The Rockets have a good RPI, 39, but little
heft behind it. Replacing Richmond as a
12 seed is Oregon who play tonight.
Their stay may be short.
Other big losers last night were Baylor, who could have got
a big road win at Texas, and California, who got crushed at UCLA. California is shaping up to be quite the
question mark come March 16.
Tonight’s bubble action has 3 of my first 6 out in
action. Southern Miss, Oregon, and
Arkansas all have pivotal games. The
biggest bubble game of them all involves Georgetown and Marquette. The Hoyas are barely hanging onto a bid while
Marquette continues to make just enough noise to be heard. They need tonight to stay relevant.
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Wednesday Update
Last night saw little movement on the bubble with the only
games of note were Dayton losing to St. Joseph’s and Minnesota beating
Iowa. Due to those games Minnesota and Dayton swap spots with the Gophers
now a 12 seed and Dayton one of the First Four Out. Missouri and Clemson
both fall further from a bid with Clemson almost being eliminated al together.
Tonight’s slate has a lot of teams on the outside looking in
with Tennessee, Nebraska, Boise State, West Virginia, Indiana State and North
Carolina State all in action. The only team in the bracket that could
fall out with a loss tonight is my 68th team, Richmond. They
face a tough task at George Mason.
Other potential roadblocks tonight include Baylor at Texas,
California at Arizona, and Stanford at Arizona State.
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
Big Bubble Tuesday
Iowa at Minnesota
There’s been some question on whether Minnesota is in or out
at this time. Tonight’s game answers that question. A win pushes
them over a team or two. A loss drops them out for sure
Xavier at St. John’s
A couple weeks ago Xavier was close to a 7 seed; now they
find them on the bubble with little room for error. I wouldn’t drop them
out with a loss but they would probably be one of the last 4 in. St.
John’s on the other hand has a very similar situation to Minnesota. Huge
game for both
Dayton at St. Joseph’s
Another huge bubble games. St Joe’s could probably
absorb a loss and still be last 4 in but Dayton needs to win to stay in my
bracket. Channel 221 at 6pm is going to be rocking
Missouri at Georgia
The Tigers have a tricky game at Georgia to try and get on
the right side of the bubble. Missouri, like St. John’s and Minnesota,
are all over the board as it pertains to the bracket. If they loss
tonight there’s no question on which side of the bubble they belong.
Monday, February 24, 2014
Mustang Rally
Some locals here in Milwaukee scoffed at the notion that Buzz Williams would entertain the SMU job a few years back even as reports surfaced they wanted to make a splash in hiring their new head coach. Well, shortly after those rumors surfaced, Larry brown took the job. A lot of basketball pundits laughed at Brown and SMU. How could a 70-something coach notorious for career wandering win at SMU and what was SMU thinking?
Well, two years later, SMU looks poised to return to the NCAA tournament and are definitely poised for success after this season as well as Brown continues to attract top recruits to Dallas. Brown took the job and brought Tim Jankovich who had been the head coach at Illinois State as his Associate Head Coach. The Mustangs are currently projected as 9 seed by Brian and barring a collapse, will be dancing.
The biggest strike against SMU was their lack of a "signature" win on the road this season. They lost to Virginia on a neutral court and at Arkansas. Their best win was a win over Texas A&M on a neutral court. They also have bad losses on the road in conference to South Florida and Temple. They have won at home. And convincingly. They beat Memphis by 15, Cincinnati by 21 & UConn by 9. They finally got a road win yesterday over a good UConn team. They have a chance to help the resume as they have a home game against Louisville and a road game at Memphis.
The affair of SMU and the punditry has been amusing. After routing Cincinnati a few weeks back, they were the toast of the American but a loss a week later to Temple and lot of the same people pumped the breaks on SMU. Now, again, after yesterday's win, it's a love affair. SMU is dancing but I'm not sure they're a threat to a 1-seed like some think they are.
They're 22nd overall in KenPom, 60th in adjusted O and 14th in adjusted in D. They have an effective fg% of 53.6%. They shoot 36.6% from deep and 53.2% in the paint. Shooting (50% of four factors) is their strongest attribute. They turn it over too much. They have a turnover % of 20%, 293rd in the nation and a steal % of 11.5%, 343rd. They do a decent job on the glass with an offensive rebounding % of 35.6%, 71st in the nation.
They are better on the defensive side. They have the nation's 2nd best defensive fg% of 42.9%. Teams only shoot 30.7% from deep and 40.8% from the paint. They force turnovers just about as much as they give it away, with a 20.9% turnover %. They are adequate on the glass. Opponents have an offensive rebounding % of 30.3%.
They are a team of transfers and young players. Their leading scorer is sophomore PG Nic Moore who gets 14.2ppg with 4.6 assists per game. He shoots 44.6% from 3. He followed Coach Jankovich from Illinois State. Fellow sophomore, Markus Kennedy gives them 12ppg and 7rpg. Kennedy came from Villanova and blocks 1.5 shots per game. He is a weak FT shooter, making only 57%. JUCO C Yanick Moreira gives the Mustangs 7 & %. He just recently returned from injury. Last year's leading scorer, Nick Russell is a bit of a jack-of-all trades. He scores 9ppg and gets 3 boards and assists per. He scored 14ppg last year. Super frosh Keith Frazier from Dallas has seen limited minutes but has shown flashes of what made him a top-10 recruit.
If Smu ends up in that 7-10 range of seeding, you'll hear talk of them being a team that can win in the round of 32, largely because of Larry Brown. While Brown is a Hall of Famer and basketball savant, his team does have limitations. Making the tournament and winning a game would be a great season for SMU. With Louisville gone next year and Cinicinnati graduating a lot of key players, SMU will be one of the favorites next season in the American.
Well, two years later, SMU looks poised to return to the NCAA tournament and are definitely poised for success after this season as well as Brown continues to attract top recruits to Dallas. Brown took the job and brought Tim Jankovich who had been the head coach at Illinois State as his Associate Head Coach. The Mustangs are currently projected as 9 seed by Brian and barring a collapse, will be dancing.
The biggest strike against SMU was their lack of a "signature" win on the road this season. They lost to Virginia on a neutral court and at Arkansas. Their best win was a win over Texas A&M on a neutral court. They also have bad losses on the road in conference to South Florida and Temple. They have won at home. And convincingly. They beat Memphis by 15, Cincinnati by 21 & UConn by 9. They finally got a road win yesterday over a good UConn team. They have a chance to help the resume as they have a home game against Louisville and a road game at Memphis.
The affair of SMU and the punditry has been amusing. After routing Cincinnati a few weeks back, they were the toast of the American but a loss a week later to Temple and lot of the same people pumped the breaks on SMU. Now, again, after yesterday's win, it's a love affair. SMU is dancing but I'm not sure they're a threat to a 1-seed like some think they are.
They're 22nd overall in KenPom, 60th in adjusted O and 14th in adjusted in D. They have an effective fg% of 53.6%. They shoot 36.6% from deep and 53.2% in the paint. Shooting (50% of four factors) is their strongest attribute. They turn it over too much. They have a turnover % of 20%, 293rd in the nation and a steal % of 11.5%, 343rd. They do a decent job on the glass with an offensive rebounding % of 35.6%, 71st in the nation.
They are better on the defensive side. They have the nation's 2nd best defensive fg% of 42.9%. Teams only shoot 30.7% from deep and 40.8% from the paint. They force turnovers just about as much as they give it away, with a 20.9% turnover %. They are adequate on the glass. Opponents have an offensive rebounding % of 30.3%.
They are a team of transfers and young players. Their leading scorer is sophomore PG Nic Moore who gets 14.2ppg with 4.6 assists per game. He shoots 44.6% from 3. He followed Coach Jankovich from Illinois State. Fellow sophomore, Markus Kennedy gives them 12ppg and 7rpg. Kennedy came from Villanova and blocks 1.5 shots per game. He is a weak FT shooter, making only 57%. JUCO C Yanick Moreira gives the Mustangs 7 & %. He just recently returned from injury. Last year's leading scorer, Nick Russell is a bit of a jack-of-all trades. He scores 9ppg and gets 3 boards and assists per. He scored 14ppg last year. Super frosh Keith Frazier from Dallas has seen limited minutes but has shown flashes of what made him a top-10 recruit.
If Smu ends up in that 7-10 range of seeding, you'll hear talk of them being a team that can win in the round of 32, largely because of Larry Brown. While Brown is a Hall of Famer and basketball savant, his team does have limitations. Making the tournament and winning a game would be a great season for SMU. With Louisville gone next year and Cinicinnati graduating a lot of key players, SMU will be one of the favorites next season in the American.
Early Monday Morning Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Florida (SEC) vs AlaSt(SWAC)/HighPoint(Bsouth)
Arizona (P12) vs Davidson (SoCon)/WeberSt(Bsky)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Robert Morris (NEC)
Syracuse vs Vermont (Aeast)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas (B12) vs NC-Central (MEAC)
Villanova vs UCSB (Bwest)
Wisconsin vs Boston (Pat)
Creighton (Beast) vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Iowa State vs Iona (MAAC)
Michigan (B1G) vs New Mexico St (WAC)
Duke vs Delaware (Colonial)
Virginia (ACC) vs Mercer(Asun)
4 seed vs 13 seed
San Diego St (MWC) vs Belmont (OVC)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs Middle Tenn St (Cusa)
Michigan State vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
St. Louis (A10) vs North Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Louisville vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
Ohio State vs Providence/Richmond
Kentucky vs Harvard (Ivy)
North Carolina vs Dayton/Georgetown
6 seed vs 11 seed
Iowa vs BYU
Memphis vs Baylor
Texas vs Toledo (MAC)
UCLA vs Oklahoma State
7 seed vs 10 seed
Oklahoma vs Xavier
Massachusettes vs Arizona State
Connecticut vs George Washington
New Mexico vs California
8 seed vs 9 seed
VCU vs St. Joseph's
Stanford vs SMU
Pittsburgh vs Colorado
Kansas State vs Gonzaga (WCC)
First Four Out
Southern Miss
Oregon
Minnesota
Missouri
Next Four Out
St. John's
Tennessee
Nebraska
Clemson
Also Considered
Boise State
West Virginia
Arkansas
Marquette
Indiana State
LSU
North Carolina St
Florida St
Sunday, February 23, 2014
Weekly Top 10
1. Florida: Gators had a bit of an indifferent week, winning at home against Auburn and then taking Ole Miss best shot yesterday. The Auburn game was a bit concerning but they responded nicely against the Rebs yesterday. Marshall Hendserson was woofing after putting up 22 in the 1st half but then the Gators shut him out in the 2nd.
2. Wichita State: Everyone wants to poke holes in the Shockers resume because of where they play. How soon we forget they throttled Pitt last year, beat the Zags and Ohio State in the tournament. They're good.
3. Duke: They lost at Carolina but responded with a good win over Sryracuse and their idiot head coach. Jabari Parker had another Saturday highlight dunk. He's capable of carrying them to a Final 4.
4. Arizona: Good week for the Wildcats who won at two tough spots. They survived Utah in overtime and destroyed Colorado, both on the road.
5. Creighton
6. Villanova
7. Virginia: Virginia closed out Notre Dame 34-8 yesterday. They've done similar things in other games this year. In the driver's seat to win the ACC with home games against Miami and Syracuse. They also travel to Maryland.
8. Louisville: Grinded out a win at Cincinnati yesterday led by a mature performance from Russ Smith that resulted in a tweet from Dan Dakich towards me claiming Smith.
9. Syracuse: Two losses this week hurt but they're still a title contender. Winning the ACC would get a banner but it's not the one they want.
10. Wisconsin: They get the B1G spot over Michigan because I think they're the better team. Truthfully, I see a potential disaster awaiting the B1G come tourney time.
Lurking: Kansas, Michigan, North Carolina
2. Wichita State: Everyone wants to poke holes in the Shockers resume because of where they play. How soon we forget they throttled Pitt last year, beat the Zags and Ohio State in the tournament. They're good.
3. Duke: They lost at Carolina but responded with a good win over Sryracuse and their idiot head coach. Jabari Parker had another Saturday highlight dunk. He's capable of carrying them to a Final 4.
4. Arizona: Good week for the Wildcats who won at two tough spots. They survived Utah in overtime and destroyed Colorado, both on the road.
5. Creighton
6. Villanova
7. Virginia: Virginia closed out Notre Dame 34-8 yesterday. They've done similar things in other games this year. In the driver's seat to win the ACC with home games against Miami and Syracuse. They also travel to Maryland.
8. Louisville: Grinded out a win at Cincinnati yesterday led by a mature performance from Russ Smith that resulted in a tweet from Dan Dakich towards me claiming Smith.
9. Syracuse: Two losses this week hurt but they're still a title contender. Winning the ACC would get a banner but it's not the one they want.
10. Wisconsin: They get the B1G spot over Michigan because I think they're the better team. Truthfully, I see a potential disaster awaiting the B1G come tourney time.
Lurking: Kansas, Michigan, North Carolina
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Saturday Bubble Update
So far today all legitimate bubble teams have won today with the exception if St. John's who had to travel to Villanova. Nothing is more fun then watching teams win to stay on the bubble instead of losing to fall off of it. The big questions this afternoon now is wether LSU can pull off a sweep of Kentucky.
Friday, February 21, 2014
Our Third Sponsor
The third sponsor is well known in the basement; it’s Buffalo Wing flavored Combos. When you need filler to soak up the alcohol the pretzel part of this snack is sure to do the trick.
Friday Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Syracuse (ACC) vs AlaSt(SWAC)/CoastCar(Bsouth)
Arizona (P12) vs Utah Valley (WAC)/WeberSt(Bsky)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Robert Morris(NEC)
Florida (SEC) vs Davidson (SoCon)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas (B12) vs Vermont (Aeast)
San Diego St (MWC) vs NC-Central (MEAC)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)
Michigan State vs Boston (Pat)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Iowa State vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Wisconsin vs Iona (MAAC)
Creighton (Beast) vs Delaware (Colonial)
Villanova vs Middle Tenn St (Cusa)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Michigan (B1G) vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
Duke vs Mercer(Asun)
Virginia vs Belmont (OVC)
Iowa vs North Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
St. Louis (A10) vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
Louisville vs Toledo (MAC)
Ohio State vs Harvard (Ivy)
Kentucky vs Baylor/BYU
6 seed vs 11 seed
Texas vs St.John's/Oklahoma State
Connecticut vs Tennessee
UCLA vs Minnesota
North Carolina vs California
7 seed vs 10 seed
Pittsburgh vs St. Joseph's
Memphis vs Missouri
Oklahoma vs SMU
Massachusettes vs Arizona State
8 seed vs 9 seed
VCU vs George Washington
New Mexico vs Colorado
Stanford vs Gonzaga (WCC)
Kansas State vs Xavier
First Four Out
Dayton
Georgetown
Providence
Richmond
Next Four Out
Southern Miss
Oregon
West Virginia
Clemson
Also Considered
Boise State
UTEP
Mississippi
Arkansas
Nebraska
Wyoming
Indiana State
LSU
North Carolina St
Thursday, February 20, 2014
The Legacy of Rick Majerus & St. Louis basketball
Two years ago following their tourney loss to Michigan State, Rick Majerus declared the St. Louis Billikens would be ranked in the top-10 within 2 years. Here we are today, and here are the Billikens, ranked in the top 10.
The Billikens are currently 24-2 and undefeated in the A-10 after surviving in overtime against George Mason who has given them fits in both matchups this year. Both games have gone to overtime. They're currently sitting 19th in KenPom and that's a good spot for them. Their only two losses are on a neutral court to Wisconsin and at home to Wichita State. Not bad losses at all. As for wins, outside of conference, they don't have any to brag about. They have two KP top-100 wins. One at Vandy and one at home against Indiana State. Both those teams reside at 100 and 87. The A-10 is strong, don't get me wrong, but St. Louis doesn't have much heft to their resume.
They are a defense first team. They have the 2nd best defense according to adjusted d. On offense, they come in at 144th. They have the 11th best scoring defense in the nation and teams shoot only 43.5% against them (effective defensive fg%), which is good for 5th. They'll turn you over as well. They rank 23rd in defensive turnover %. They manage the boards well. Teams get 28.5% of their misses against SLU. That ranks SLU 44th in the nation in defensive rebounding %. They do a decent job keeping teams off the line. Opponents also find it hard to shoot against them from deep, making only 27.6%. That's 4th best in America.
They're not as good offensively. You'd peg them as low tempo but they actually average more possessions than the national average. They just don't do anything great on offense. They have an effective fg% of 50% which is middle of the pack. They have a turnover % of 17.7%, 115th. One thing they don't do well is clean the glass offensively. The Billikens offensive rebounding % is 29.3%. That puts them at 247th.
They are lead by four seniors. The backcourt is lead by Jordair Jett and Mike McCall. Jett is a do all-everything guard. He scores 13.7ppg and adds 4 boards and 5 assists per game as well. He is only a 63% FT shooter and he gets to the line as much as anyone on the team. The leading scorer is Dwayne Evans. Evans gets 14.7ppg and adds 6.4 boards per game. Joining him in the frontcourt is Rob Loe. Loe gives them 10 & 5. These 4 will are part of a legacy that helped make St. Louis a premier program in the A-10.
For some reason, I was unsure about St. Louis heading into the season. They've been brilliant this year. Though the resume is light to me, they had chances against Bucky and the Shockers and could be undefeated. I'm just leery of them in the tournament. They should win a game but who the opponent is in the second game will deserve a close look as you fill out your bracket. They'll be a trendy pick, some pundits might have them in the Final 4. I say, tread lightly. Regardless, this group, has done exactly what Majerus said they would. Now it's time to see if they can go beyond that.
The Billikens are currently 24-2 and undefeated in the A-10 after surviving in overtime against George Mason who has given them fits in both matchups this year. Both games have gone to overtime. They're currently sitting 19th in KenPom and that's a good spot for them. Their only two losses are on a neutral court to Wisconsin and at home to Wichita State. Not bad losses at all. As for wins, outside of conference, they don't have any to brag about. They have two KP top-100 wins. One at Vandy and one at home against Indiana State. Both those teams reside at 100 and 87. The A-10 is strong, don't get me wrong, but St. Louis doesn't have much heft to their resume.
They are a defense first team. They have the 2nd best defense according to adjusted d. On offense, they come in at 144th. They have the 11th best scoring defense in the nation and teams shoot only 43.5% against them (effective defensive fg%), which is good for 5th. They'll turn you over as well. They rank 23rd in defensive turnover %. They manage the boards well. Teams get 28.5% of their misses against SLU. That ranks SLU 44th in the nation in defensive rebounding %. They do a decent job keeping teams off the line. Opponents also find it hard to shoot against them from deep, making only 27.6%. That's 4th best in America.
They're not as good offensively. You'd peg them as low tempo but they actually average more possessions than the national average. They just don't do anything great on offense. They have an effective fg% of 50% which is middle of the pack. They have a turnover % of 17.7%, 115th. One thing they don't do well is clean the glass offensively. The Billikens offensive rebounding % is 29.3%. That puts them at 247th.
They are lead by four seniors. The backcourt is lead by Jordair Jett and Mike McCall. Jett is a do all-everything guard. He scores 13.7ppg and adds 4 boards and 5 assists per game as well. He is only a 63% FT shooter and he gets to the line as much as anyone on the team. The leading scorer is Dwayne Evans. Evans gets 14.7ppg and adds 6.4 boards per game. Joining him in the frontcourt is Rob Loe. Loe gives them 10 & 5. These 4 will are part of a legacy that helped make St. Louis a premier program in the A-10.
For some reason, I was unsure about St. Louis heading into the season. They've been brilliant this year. Though the resume is light to me, they had chances against Bucky and the Shockers and could be undefeated. I'm just leery of them in the tournament. They should win a game but who the opponent is in the second game will deserve a close look as you fill out your bracket. They'll be a trendy pick, some pundits might have them in the Final 4. I say, tread lightly. Regardless, this group, has done exactly what Majerus said they would. Now it's time to see if they can go beyond that.
Hey It's Thursday Morning!
The big news of the evening was Syracuse losing but they are still far from falling off that top line. Even if they lose to Duke on Saturday I would still have them as a 1 seed in the bracket. Outside of that there was little movement on the bubble. Marquette lost to end their short stay on the Also Considered list. Arizona State suffered a letdown as predicted but are still secure in the bracket. Minnesota and California lost as 10 seeds but the most they will fall is 1 seed in our next bracket. All other bubble teams won including Dayton who is my first team out. They will be watching the BYU/Gonzaga game closely. Speaking of BYU/Gonzaga let us turn our attention to tonight’s bubble games. Nebraska hosts Penn State and although they are very far from the 68th team in, they are still worth watching due to their impressive wins. Conference USA has multiple teams playing and although they are most likely a 1 bid tournament they do have a very tight race up top between Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, UTEP, and Middle Tennessee State. I think the only way they can get more than 1 bid is if LaTech or UTEP and SoMiss win out and meet in the conference championship. Georgetown travels to Seton Hall and needs a road win to keep their 11 seed. A loss and they are probably playing in Dayton on Tuesday of March Madness. Out west, besides the BYU game, we have St. Mary’s at San Francisco on very thin ice, and Stanford hosting USC. Stanford is currently an 8 seed but there is so much play between 8 and 12 I’m still considering them a bubble team. St. Mary’s will probably be dropped from tracking purposes if they lose.
Oh, and there might be a big game in Carolina tonight….
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
The Bubble Continues
Providence lost last night after moving into the bracket. I’m going back and forth between them and Oklahoma State as the 68th team.
Tonight’s action had a lot of bubble teams playing. All 4 of my 10 seeds, Colorado, California, Minnesota, and SMU are playing. All 4 can survive a loss but all play at home and should be able to hold serve. Colorado has the toughest game with ASU coming to town. I predict a big letdown after beating Arizona Friday night.
Two of my 11 seeds play as well, St. Joseph’s and Missouri. The Hawks travel to Rhode Island for a tricky game against the Rams. They could fall out with a loss. Missouri hosts Vanderbilt and is in the same situation with a loss.
On the outside looking in are Dayton (First Four Out), Oregon (Next Four Out), LSU (Also Considered), and Marquette (Also Considered). Dayton could leap over Providence or Oklahoma State with a win while Marquette needs a win to stay in the conversation. Oregon and LSU are somewhere in between. Time to put up or shut up for those two.
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Tuesday Bubble Night
George Washington – Richmond
GW is safe at the moment but Richmond is in our last 4 out. A win here might be enough to leap BYU
North Carolina State – Clemson
Both teams need a win. Loser is probably out of contention
Villanova – Providence
Providence creeps in with Oklahoma State’s loss last night. Will it last more than 24 hours?
Kentucky – Mississippi
The Rebels are hanging on by a thread. I’d prefer not to see anymore Marshall Henderson so I hope they lose.
Butler – St. John’s
The Johnnie’s are still hot and now in the field. A loss could be damaging
Georgia – Tennessee
I struggle with Tennessee…they are in but I can’t really explain why. I don’t see them as a threat even if they make the tournament
Fresno State – Wyoming
I am the only bracketologist tracking Wyoming….
Monday, February 17, 2014
Cavalier Ball
Entering ACC play, the Virginia Cavaliers looked like a team that was NIT bound. They had home losses to VCU and Wisconsin, losing in dreadful fashion to Wisconsin, 48-38 in a game that set basketball back to the peach basket. They had also lost at UWGB, while not a horriic loss, it's a loss an ACC team shouldn't have. They topped all of that by losing by 35 to Tennessee in Knoxville, giving up an un-Cavalier like 87 points while scoring a Cavalier-like 52.
Well, 2/3 of the way through ACC play, Virginia sits in 2nd place with only one loss, that coming at Duke in a game they could have won. Sitting at 12-1, Virginia has Syracuse at home and could share a regular-season ACC title or maybe win it outright.
As one might expect, Virginia is all about defense. They have the nation's 15th best defensive effective fg% at 44.1%. Teams should a dreadful 41.5% from 2, 5th best in the nation. They force their share of turnovers with a turnover % of 19.6%, 105th. On top of suffocating defense, you don't get many 2nd chance points. Their defensive rebounding % is 25.1%, 3rd best. They also don't foul very much. All-in-all, they're a pain in the backside to try and run offense against as evidenced by their 4th overall rating in adjusted defense.
They are not as strong on the offensive end but still rate 49th in adjusted offense, so they are efficient enough. They scoff at tempo, averaging 62 possessions per game. That puts them at 340th in the land. They have an effective fg% of 49.8% which is okay. They're decent at not turning it over, with the nations 94th best turnover %. They also do an okay job getting misses. Their offensive rebounding % is 35.1%, 60 th best. They are terrible at the FT line, shooting only 65.5%. That's 310th in the nation. They're Tony Bennett's team and he's his dad as a coach.
Entering the season, their best player was expected to be senior guard, Jon Harris. His scoring is down nearly 5 ppg and is only shooting 64% from the charity stripe. They've been getting contributions from quite a variety of players with the best coming from sophomore guard Malcolm Brogdon who has probably become their go-to-guy. He score 12.3 ppg and gets 5.8 boards per game. Brogdon shoots 39% from distance.
I'm a bit biased against Virinia because they're a root canal to watch at times but in conference play, they've been beyond effective. The ACC has become a slow-tempo league and it suits Virginia just fine. At the very least, I think they share the regular season title. March will be about matchups. They certainly have a team capable of winning a few games. But if they meet a team that shoots it well against them, they could get run out of the gym like Florida did to them a few years back.
Well, 2/3 of the way through ACC play, Virginia sits in 2nd place with only one loss, that coming at Duke in a game they could have won. Sitting at 12-1, Virginia has Syracuse at home and could share a regular-season ACC title or maybe win it outright.
As one might expect, Virginia is all about defense. They have the nation's 15th best defensive effective fg% at 44.1%. Teams should a dreadful 41.5% from 2, 5th best in the nation. They force their share of turnovers with a turnover % of 19.6%, 105th. On top of suffocating defense, you don't get many 2nd chance points. Their defensive rebounding % is 25.1%, 3rd best. They also don't foul very much. All-in-all, they're a pain in the backside to try and run offense against as evidenced by their 4th overall rating in adjusted defense.
They are not as strong on the offensive end but still rate 49th in adjusted offense, so they are efficient enough. They scoff at tempo, averaging 62 possessions per game. That puts them at 340th in the land. They have an effective fg% of 49.8% which is okay. They're decent at not turning it over, with the nations 94th best turnover %. They also do an okay job getting misses. Their offensive rebounding % is 35.1%, 60 th best. They are terrible at the FT line, shooting only 65.5%. That's 310th in the nation. They're Tony Bennett's team and he's his dad as a coach.
Entering the season, their best player was expected to be senior guard, Jon Harris. His scoring is down nearly 5 ppg and is only shooting 64% from the charity stripe. They've been getting contributions from quite a variety of players with the best coming from sophomore guard Malcolm Brogdon who has probably become their go-to-guy. He score 12.3 ppg and gets 5.8 boards per game. Brogdon shoots 39% from distance.
I'm a bit biased against Virinia because they're a root canal to watch at times but in conference play, they've been beyond effective. The ACC has become a slow-tempo league and it suits Virginia just fine. At the very least, I think they share the regular season title. March will be about matchups. They certainly have a team capable of winning a few games. But if they meet a team that shoots it well against them, they could get run out of the gym like Florida did to them a few years back.
Bubble Analysis
After crunching some numbers this morning I am convinced this might be the softest bubble in a while. I count 16 teams in the bracket that are truly bubble teams and that doesn’t include any 6-8 seeds that could fall off with a 3-4 game losing streak. On the outside I am still tracking 20 teams which leaves 36 teams for 16 spots. Here is the bubble picture along with some notes.
Bubble In:
Stanford
George Washington – could be passed by other A10 teams soon
Xavier
ASU – has been hot lately. Will they come back down to earth
Kansas State
Colorado
SMU – one bad loss does not doom
California – are they coming back out of their funk
Minnesota
Oklahoma State – I’m not sure Smart can save them
Missouri
Georgetown – lost big to St. John’s
Tennessee – strong NCSOS, otherwise…
St. Joseph’s – hot, hot, hot
St. John’s – see St.Joe’s
BYU – win over fellow bubbler St. Mary;s
Bubble Out:
Providence – did they peak too early?
Dayton
Richmond – crawling over GW?
Southern Miss – Auto Bid or Bust?
Oregon – need any kind of W’s
West Virginia
Florida State – starts tonight against UNC
Baylor – very similar to Oregon
Boise State – probably too little too late
Clemson – Duke win, that’s it?
UTEP
Mississippi
St. Mary’s – missed chance vs BYU
Arkansas – can they ever win on road?
Nebraska – starting to look like they need to be in the conversation
Marquette – not as close as I originally thought
Wyoming
Indiana State – probably not
NC State
LSU – on their last legs
Monday Bracketology
I had real trouble with the last 4-5 in today. These last couple in and out have very similiar resumes. The next two weeks will be very interesting.
1 seed vs 16 seed
Syracuse (ACC) vs Southern(SWAC)/CoastCar
Arizona (P12) vs Utah Valley (WAC)/WeberST(Bsky)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Robert Morris(NEC)
Florida (SEC) vs Davidson (SoCon)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas (B12) vs Vermont (Aeast)
Duke vs NC-Central (MEAC)
San Diego St (MWC) vs UC-Irvine (Bwest)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs Boston (Pat)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Iowa State vs Iona (MAAC)
Wisconsin vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Creighton (Beast) vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
Michigan State vs Delaware (Colonial)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Michigan (B1G) vs Mercer(Asun)
Villanova vs Louisiana Tech (Cusa)
Virginia vs Belmont (OVC)
Iowa vs North Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
St. Louis (A10) vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
Louisville vs Toledo (MAC)
Ohio State vs Harvard (Ivy)
Kentucky vs St.John's/Tennessee
6 seed vs 11 seed
Texas vs Tennessee/St. Joseph's
Connecticut vs Georgetown
UCLA vs Missouri
North Carolina vs Oklahoma State
7 seed vs 10 seed
Pittsburgh vs Minnesota
Memphis vs California
Oklahoma vs SMU
Massachusettes vs Colorado
8 seed vs 9 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs George Washington
VCU vs Arizona State
New Mexico vs Kansas State
Stanford vs Xavier
First Four Out
Providence
Dayton
Richmond
Southern Miss
Next Four Out
Oregon
West Virginia
Florida State
Baylor
Also Considered
Boise State
Clemson
UTEP
Mississippi
St. Mary's
Arkansas
Nebraska
Marquette
Wyoming
Indiana State
North Carolina St
LSU
Sunday, February 16, 2014
28 Days to Selection Sunday - My Top 10
As we are now less than a month from selection Sunday, I'll post my weekly top 10.
1. Florida: The Gators went into Rupp and beat a spirited Kentucky team. Florida will be favored in the rest of their games and deservedly so.
2. Michigan State
3. Syracuse: The offensive droughts will get them sooner than later.
4. Wichita State
5. Duke: Third in KenPom, paying for early conference losses in the polls
6. Arizona: May not win the Pac-12. Another team with offensive deficiencies
7. Villanova
8. Kansas
9. Louisville
10. Virginia: Profile coming this week. Don't buy them at all but they are a matchup driven team
Saturday, February 15, 2014
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Friday, February 14, 2014
Friday Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Syracuse (ACC) vs Southern(SWAC)/Weber St(Bsky)
Arizona (P12) vs Robert Morris (NEC)/CoastCar(Bsouth)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Utah Valley (WAC)
Florida (SEC) vs Davidson (SoCon)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Villanova (Beast) vs Vermont (Aeast)
Kansas (B12) vs NC-Central (MEAC)
Duke vs Boston (Pat)
Michigan (B1G) vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
3 seed vs 14 seed
San Diego St (MWC) vs Iona (MAAC)
Michigan State vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs UCSB (Bwest)
Kentucky vs Delaware (Colonial)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Iowa State vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
Wisconsin vs Mercer(Asun)
Virginia vs Belmont (OVC)
Iowa vs North Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Creighton vs Toledo (MAC)
St. Louis (A10) vs Harvard (Ivy)
Ohio State vs Providence/Dayton
Louisville vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Texas vs BYU/Missouri
Connecticut vs Tennessee
Memphis vs Georgetown
UCLA vs Minnesota
7 seed vs 10 seed
Pittsburgh vs California
North Carolina vs Colorado
Oklahoma vs Arizona State
VCU vs Stanford
8 seed vs 9 seed
Massachusettes vs Oklahoma State
Gonzaga (WCC) vs SMU
Kansas State vs George Washington
Xavier vs New Mexico
First Four Out
St. John's
St. Joseph's
LSU
Florida State
Next Four Out
West Virginia
North Carolina St
Oregon
Richmond
Also Considered
Boise State
Clemson
UTEP
Mississippi
St. Mary's
Arkansas
Louisiana Tech
Baylor
Indiana
Thursday, February 13, 2014
Westwood Ho
In Brian's bracket on Monday, he had the UCLA Bruins as a 7-seed. Didn't think much of it until I ran through some KenPom numbers and saw UCLA was in the top 25 on both sides of the ball and 18th overall. At 18-5 (7-3), 7 seems low until we look closer but as a 7 (I think they could go higher), the numbers indicate a team that could be dangerous.
UCLA profiles in the bracket so low because they haven't beaten anyone of note. KenPom rating has them with the 220th toughest schedule overall. Their best non-conference win is probably Alabama. They lost at Mizzou and got throttled by Duke on a neutral court. They don't have a terrible conference loss. Losing on the road at Utah and Oregon State this year is no great deal. But could they bea threat as a 6-8 seed team? Yeah, I think so, though I'll always doubt a Steve Alford-coached team.
As I noted earlier, they're a top 25 team in adjusted defense and offense. On offense, they are 23rd. One of the criticisms Ben Howland faced was, his teams were plodding and defensive minded, playin limited possessions. When AD Dan Guerrero was looking for his replacement, fans and Deadhead alumni wanted someone to play up-tempo. That's why there were so many chuckles when they hired Alford. Historically, Alford coached teams played low-tempo games. To his credit or to appease the base, his Bruins team has been an up-tempo team. They're 17th in pace, avergaing 71.6 possessions per game.
The Bruins can shoot well. They have an effective fg% of 54.3%, 23rd best. From deep, they are 18th best in the nation, shooting 39.5%. In the paint, they are 38th, shooting 52.4%. They protect the ball. The turnover % is only 15.1%, 19th best. They're average on the glass in getting misses and don't get to the line at a great clip but do shoot 75% at the line. That would rank them 23rd in the nation.
They're definitely not as polished on defense as the best Ben Howland teams were but they're not slouches either. Overall, they rank 24th in adjusted d. Teams shoot an effective fg% of 49% which is about the national average. They're decent on the glass. Opponents only get 29% of their misses and they don't overally foul. Opponent FTA/FGA is 35.7%, 78th best. They do a nice job forcing turnovers. Their turnover % is 21.4%, 34th and have a steal % of 14.4%, 2nd best oevrall.
The Bruins two best players are sophomores. 6'9" Kyle Anderson plays a variety of roles, including handling the ball on offense. He scores 15.1ppg and grabs 8.7 boards per game. On top of that, he averages 6.7 dimes a game. he doesn;t shoot many 3's but is 20-40 on the season. His running mate, Jordan Adams scores 16.8ppg to lead UCLA. He also adds 5.7 boards per game. Adams has the 6th best individual steal % in college, 5.3%. Alford's son, Bryce has provided quality minutes as well. Alford doesn't make a ton of 3's either but does shoot 40% from deep.
UCLA strikes me as a team that will vex me when filling out a bracket. The numbers tell you they can probably beat just about anyone but they haven't. They got to the Bay Area next week. That will give me a better idea how good they might be. Their game at Stanford is the only game their an underdog according to KenPom and the game at Cal, they're not big favorites, maybe a bucket. They don't have Arizona again after losing to them at home at the beginning of conference play (They could meet in the Pac-12 tournament, of course). I think they could surprise some people and make a run during the tournament. I just have a hard time seeing a Steve Alford team do it, though. Fair or not, how they play in March will define him and his teams.
UCLA profiles in the bracket so low because they haven't beaten anyone of note. KenPom rating has them with the 220th toughest schedule overall. Their best non-conference win is probably Alabama. They lost at Mizzou and got throttled by Duke on a neutral court. They don't have a terrible conference loss. Losing on the road at Utah and Oregon State this year is no great deal. But could they bea threat as a 6-8 seed team? Yeah, I think so, though I'll always doubt a Steve Alford-coached team.
As I noted earlier, they're a top 25 team in adjusted defense and offense. On offense, they are 23rd. One of the criticisms Ben Howland faced was, his teams were plodding and defensive minded, playin limited possessions. When AD Dan Guerrero was looking for his replacement, fans and Deadhead alumni wanted someone to play up-tempo. That's why there were so many chuckles when they hired Alford. Historically, Alford coached teams played low-tempo games. To his credit or to appease the base, his Bruins team has been an up-tempo team. They're 17th in pace, avergaing 71.6 possessions per game.
The Bruins can shoot well. They have an effective fg% of 54.3%, 23rd best. From deep, they are 18th best in the nation, shooting 39.5%. In the paint, they are 38th, shooting 52.4%. They protect the ball. The turnover % is only 15.1%, 19th best. They're average on the glass in getting misses and don't get to the line at a great clip but do shoot 75% at the line. That would rank them 23rd in the nation.
They're definitely not as polished on defense as the best Ben Howland teams were but they're not slouches either. Overall, they rank 24th in adjusted d. Teams shoot an effective fg% of 49% which is about the national average. They're decent on the glass. Opponents only get 29% of their misses and they don't overally foul. Opponent FTA/FGA is 35.7%, 78th best. They do a nice job forcing turnovers. Their turnover % is 21.4%, 34th and have a steal % of 14.4%, 2nd best oevrall.
The Bruins two best players are sophomores. 6'9" Kyle Anderson plays a variety of roles, including handling the ball on offense. He scores 15.1ppg and grabs 8.7 boards per game. On top of that, he averages 6.7 dimes a game. he doesn;t shoot many 3's but is 20-40 on the season. His running mate, Jordan Adams scores 16.8ppg to lead UCLA. He also adds 5.7 boards per game. Adams has the 6th best individual steal % in college, 5.3%. Alford's son, Bryce has provided quality minutes as well. Alford doesn't make a ton of 3's either but does shoot 40% from deep.
UCLA strikes me as a team that will vex me when filling out a bracket. The numbers tell you they can probably beat just about anyone but they haven't. They got to the Bay Area next week. That will give me a better idea how good they might be. Their game at Stanford is the only game their an underdog according to KenPom and the game at Cal, they're not big favorites, maybe a bucket. They don't have Arizona again after losing to them at home at the beginning of conference play (They could meet in the Pac-12 tournament, of course). I think they could surprise some people and make a run during the tournament. I just have a hard time seeing a Steve Alford team do it, though. Fair or not, how they play in March will define him and his teams.
Screw Maryland
I've started to see some people bemoan the end of the Duke-Maryland rivalry as the Terps travel to Cameron on Saturday.
You know what? Screw Maryland. I hope Duke absolutely runs them off the court and Jabari Parker is catching alley-oops up 50 with less than a minute left.
Maryland, despite winning a national title in basketball in 2002 and somehow making a BCS game still couldn't turn a profit so they turned to the B1G and their golden goose, the B1G TV Network, home of the largest collection of idiots talking sports on TV, an AV club-level unit.
So, a school that couldn't compete in football in the freaking ACC and whined incessantly about how unfair the league is in favor of Tobacco Road is going to add road trips to Minnesota and Nebraska and try and compete in football against schools that actually try and win football games.
And you're trading regional rivalries in basketball for what? Rutgers? Penn State? All because your leaders were too incompetent to run a financially solvent athletic deepartment.
So, enjoy your dollars and recruiting in the midwest where people are leaving in droves. The ACC will do just fine with Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame & Pitt. Have fun adding Rutgers to your schedule instead and traveling to Iowa in February.
You know what? Screw Maryland. I hope Duke absolutely runs them off the court and Jabari Parker is catching alley-oops up 50 with less than a minute left.
Maryland, despite winning a national title in basketball in 2002 and somehow making a BCS game still couldn't turn a profit so they turned to the B1G and their golden goose, the B1G TV Network, home of the largest collection of idiots talking sports on TV, an AV club-level unit.
So, a school that couldn't compete in football in the freaking ACC and whined incessantly about how unfair the league is in favor of Tobacco Road is going to add road trips to Minnesota and Nebraska and try and compete in football against schools that actually try and win football games.
And you're trading regional rivalries in basketball for what? Rutgers? Penn State? All because your leaders were too incompetent to run a financially solvent athletic deepartment.
So, enjoy your dollars and recruiting in the midwest where people are leaving in droves. The ACC will do just fine with Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame & Pitt. Have fun adding Rutgers to your schedule instead and traveling to Iowa in February.
Thursday Bubble Action
Quick update on last night’s action. LSU lost and falls out of the bracket. Providence takes their place. It’s a case of the best of the teams out and not that the Friars deserve it. This year’s bubble is not good tonight.
Here’s tonight’s slate:
SMU at Rutgers – SMU is in comfortably at an 10/11 seed but this would be a bad loss.
Arkansas at Missouri – neither team is in and I’m thinking Arkansas is out of consideration with a loss.
St. John’s at Seton Hall – The Red Storm’s late season surge looks to continue. I have them as a First Four Out team today.
Colorado at UCLA – Colorado’s overall resume is a 9-10 seed but with Dinwiddle out they look more like a 11/12. How will the committee judge them?
Minnesota at Wisconsin – the Gophers won’t fall out with a loss but a big road win would really do them wonders.
BYU at Pacific – just keep winning Cougers, just keep winning.
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Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Toughness Defined
Aaron Craft playing the game with grit, heart and leadership.
I am no great fan of Aaron Craft, mostly because of the team he plays for and the narrative that is thrust upon him. It's not his fault basketball announcers attribute qualities to him that seem to fit one particular race, especially those that play guard. He's simply the current poster boy for narrow mindedness and cliched announcing.
Kind of the Derek Jeter of college basketball. Synergy.
I am no great fan of Aaron Craft, mostly because of the team he plays for and the narrative that is thrust upon him. It's not his fault basketball announcers attribute qualities to him that seem to fit one particular race, especially those that play guard. He's simply the current poster boy for narrow mindedness and cliched announcing.
Kind of the Derek Jeter of college basketball. Synergy.
Bubble and Stuff
Not much movement in the bracket last night. Tennessee loses to Florida but still hangs around at an 11 seed. Oklahoma State continues their free fall down to a 9 seed. Marquette and Wyoming get big wins but still are not in the Also Considered bucket. Marquette’s RPI is too high at 70 and they are 0-5 against the RPI top 25. Wyoming gets a top 25 win but their RPI is around 85. Mississippi and Clemson lose golden chances move up to a Next Four Out team but fail in the end. North Carolina State is making a late move to be relevant. A top 50 RPI is good but 0-4 against the top 25 isn’t. They will need a big win down the road to close the gap.
Tonight’s slate has two big ACC showdowns with Syracuse traveling to Pitt for a first to 40 wins game while Tobacco Road gets busy with Duke at North Carolina.
As for the bracket, two A-10 teams right on the bubble are in action. Richmond travels to Duquesne while Dayton hosts Rhode Island. Both teams are in must win situations for the time being. In the Midwest, Baylor tries to right the ship at TCU. At 2-8 in conference they are 3-4 wins from getting in. LSU also plays Texas A&M. As the last team in they need a win. Out west Stanford and California are in action. Neither are in bubble trouble right now but a loss moves them down to a projected 11 seed.
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
Bubble Update
In last night’s action Georgetown takes a big step forward by holding serve at home against fellow bubbler, Providence. The Friars fall out of the bracket after losing 4 of their last 5 with their only win coming against DePaul. Florida State loses at home to Miami to also fall out of the bracket. They have lost 6 of their last 8. West Virginia gets a huge win over Iowa State and moves into the Next Four Out group. They’ve won 4 of 5 and have 3 top 50 wins. They will have an opportunity to play themselves into the bracket with 4 of their last 7 against the RPI top 25.
Replacing Providence and FSU are LSU and Dayton. Neither should feel very safe but Dayton does have 3 top 50 wins.
In tonight’s games there are mostly teams out that need to continue to win to stay within shouting distance of the bubble. Mississippi travels to Alabama, Wake and North Carolina State mix it up, Clemson visits Notre Dame, and the possibly relevant Warriors of Marquette look to get into the conversation at Seton Hall. On the plus side of the bracket Tennessee hosts Florida in a huge game for the Vols. Tonight can go a long way to securing a bid for them.
Monday, February 10, 2014
The Defending Champ
In Brian's latest mock, he has Louisville as a 5 seed. And it's right where they belong. To this point, their best win is either a road win at UConn or a home win against SMU. Good teams, hardly considered top tier. Out of conference, the Cards best win is Southern Miss. They've lost at home against Cincinnati and an erratic Memphis team. They lost early in the year to North Carolina who we can't be certain what they are and lost to a similar team in Kentucky. In fairness, Kentucky has been lights out at Rupp.
All this being said, if you're a 1-seed in the Sweet 16 or even a 4-seed in the Round of 32 (sigh), do you want to see Louisville? They're not as good as last years team but the numbers tell us they're still a pretty good team. As of today, they're 5th overall in KenPom, 13th on offense and 14th on defense.
Offensively, Louisville has been averaging 82 ppg in the AAC, best in the league. They have an effective fg% of 54.3%, 22nd best in the nation. The Cardinals shoot 37.3% from deep (60th)and 53.4% from 2 (23rd). They protect the ball. Their turnover % is 15.2%, 23rd best. Opponents steal % is 6.2%. That makes them 4th best at preventing steals. They get to misses as well. The Cards offensive rebounding % is 37.1%, 28th best. The area of concern is how they shoot from the line. They are 284th in the land with a 66.4% ft%. They get to the line at just above the national clip.
On the other side of the ball, they hold opponents to a 44.4% effective fg%, 23rd best. Teams shoot only 30% from deep (28th) and 44% from inside the arc (41st). The Cardinals have a defensive turnover % of 24.9%, 3rd best. They have a steal % of 13.8%, 4th best. Like a good Pitino team, they force turnovers to help generate offense. They foul a bit above the national average and will give up rebounds to the opposing offenses. Their defensive rebounding % is 33.5%, 258th.
Senior Russ Smith is the maddening player who makes the Cardinals go. Smith shoots 40% from deep and scores 18.3ppg. Smith can play out of control at times, trying to carry a larger burden than he may need to. Sophmore F Montrzel Harrell give sthem 12.6 & 8.2 boards. He's one of their bad FT shooters, only making 46% from the line. Harrell might be the best overall player on the team. The hero from last year's run in March, Luke Hancock has been a good player for Louisville but he's been far less effective, shooting only 30% from deep and 41% overall. Can he find his groove as the season winds down and heads into tourney play? If so, the Cardinals become more dangerous.
Losing Chase Behanan hurt them but he was given more than enough chances to get his act together. Coupled with the graduations of Siva and Dieng, the Cards lost 3 key pieces. Harrell and Hancock need to be more than just complimentary pieces. Harrell certainly can be that.
I'm not sure what to make of Louisville as we move forward. The team numbers tell you they can run with just about anyone. Would you be shocked if they were to beat a Syracuse, Wichita, Arizona or Florida in March? I also can't say I'd be shocked if they were to lose early. Let's see how they handle some road trips here in the AAC down the stretch.
All this being said, if you're a 1-seed in the Sweet 16 or even a 4-seed in the Round of 32 (sigh), do you want to see Louisville? They're not as good as last years team but the numbers tell us they're still a pretty good team. As of today, they're 5th overall in KenPom, 13th on offense and 14th on defense.
Offensively, Louisville has been averaging 82 ppg in the AAC, best in the league. They have an effective fg% of 54.3%, 22nd best in the nation. The Cardinals shoot 37.3% from deep (60th)and 53.4% from 2 (23rd). They protect the ball. Their turnover % is 15.2%, 23rd best. Opponents steal % is 6.2%. That makes them 4th best at preventing steals. They get to misses as well. The Cards offensive rebounding % is 37.1%, 28th best. The area of concern is how they shoot from the line. They are 284th in the land with a 66.4% ft%. They get to the line at just above the national clip.
On the other side of the ball, they hold opponents to a 44.4% effective fg%, 23rd best. Teams shoot only 30% from deep (28th) and 44% from inside the arc (41st). The Cardinals have a defensive turnover % of 24.9%, 3rd best. They have a steal % of 13.8%, 4th best. Like a good Pitino team, they force turnovers to help generate offense. They foul a bit above the national average and will give up rebounds to the opposing offenses. Their defensive rebounding % is 33.5%, 258th.
Senior Russ Smith is the maddening player who makes the Cardinals go. Smith shoots 40% from deep and scores 18.3ppg. Smith can play out of control at times, trying to carry a larger burden than he may need to. Sophmore F Montrzel Harrell give sthem 12.6 & 8.2 boards. He's one of their bad FT shooters, only making 46% from the line. Harrell might be the best overall player on the team. The hero from last year's run in March, Luke Hancock has been a good player for Louisville but he's been far less effective, shooting only 30% from deep and 41% overall. Can he find his groove as the season winds down and heads into tourney play? If so, the Cardinals become more dangerous.
Losing Chase Behanan hurt them but he was given more than enough chances to get his act together. Coupled with the graduations of Siva and Dieng, the Cards lost 3 key pieces. Harrell and Hancock need to be more than just complimentary pieces. Harrell certainly can be that.
I'm not sure what to make of Louisville as we move forward. The team numbers tell you they can run with just about anyone. Would you be shocked if they were to beat a Syracuse, Wichita, Arizona or Florida in March? I also can't say I'd be shocked if they were to lose early. Let's see how they handle some road trips here in the AAC down the stretch.
Monday Night Bubble Action
There’s not many games tonight but three of them include our 63rd, 67th, and 68th team in our bracket. Florida State, 67th, hosts Miami and they need to win to stay in the bracket. The 63rd and 68th team are Georgetown and Providence. Plain and simple, the winner stays in and the loser is out. This is the kind of game that is big when the committee gets together in a couple weeks. On the outside looking in are Maryland and West Virginia. The Terps travel to Virginia while the Mountaineers host Iowa State. Both of these games would be huge come March.
Monday Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Syracuse (ACC) vs AlabSt(SWAC)/Weber St(Bsky)
Arizona (P12) vs Robert Morris (NEC)/UNC-Ash(Bsouth)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Utah Valley (WAC)
Florida (SEC) vs Davidson (SoCon)
2 seed vs 15 seed
San Diego St (MWC) vs Vermont (Aeast)
Kansas (B12) vs NC-Central (MEAC)
Villanova (Beast) vs Boston (Pat)
Iowa State vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Michigan (B1G) vs Iona (MAAC)
Michigan State vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs UCSB (Bwest)
Duke vs Delaware (Colonial)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Kentucky vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
Wisconsin vs Mercer(Asun)
Virginia vs Belmont (OVC)
Iowa vs North Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Ohio State vs Toledo (MAC)
St. Louis (A10) vs Harvard (Ivy)
Creighton vs Florida State/Providence
Louisville vs BYU/Missouri
6 seed vs 11 seed
Oklahoma vs Georgetown
Texas vs Tennessee
Connecticut vs SMU
Memphis vs Minnesota
7 seed vs 10 seed
Oklahoma State vs California
Massachusettes vs Arizona State
UCLA vs Xavier
Pittsburgh vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
8 seed vs 9 seed
New Mexico vs VCU
North Carolina vs Stanford
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Colorado
Kansas State vs George Washington
First Four Out
LSU
Dayton
St. John's
St. Joseph's
Next Four Out
North Carolina St
Oregon
Indiana
Richmond
Also Considered
Boise State
Clemson
UTEP
Mississippi
St. Mary's
Arkansas
Louisiana Tech
West Virginia
New Mexico State
Maryland
Baylor
Sunday, February 9, 2014
Saturday Look Back
Here's what I'll say about the incident in Lubbock. If you're a middle-aged man heckling or riding college students and cross the line, I have no sympathy for you. Can Marcus Smart do what he did? No, but the fan is the real "loser" and "thug".
As for the Cowboys, stick a fork in them. They're lost and it doesn't appear their head coach is capable of fixing things.
Yesterday was a great day for some individual players.
Iowa State's Melvin Ejim set a Big XII record scoring 48 points against TCU. He shot 20-24 and added 18 boards.
Also in the Big XII, Kansas State Marcis Foster scored 34 as the Wildcats routed the previously red-hot Texas Longhorns. Foster did so on a cool 13-16 performance. Foster is an unheralded frosh who looks to be a real find for Bruce Weber.
Finally, Duke's super frosh Jabari Parker continues to wow scoring 29 points and adding 16 boards as Duke throttled Boston College. Parker was 12-17 from the field. It could have been even better as he was only 5-10 from the line.
Friday, February 7, 2014
Friday Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Syracuse (ACC) vs Southern(SWAC)/Weber St(Bsky)
Arizona (P12) vs Robert Morris (NEC)/UNC-Ash(Bsouth)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Utah Valley (WAC)
Florida (SEC) vs Davidson (SoCon)
2 seed vs 15 seed
San Diego St (MWC) vs Vermont (Aeast)
Kansas (B12) vs NC-Central (MEAC)
Villanova vs American (Pat)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs UCSB (Bwest)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Michigan (B1G) vs Canisius (MAAC)
Michigan State vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
Iowa State vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
Creighton (Beast) vs Delaware (Colonial)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Kentucky vs North Dakota St (Summit)
Duke vs Mercer(Asun)
Wisconsin vs Belmont (OVC)
Virginia vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Iowa vs Toledo (MAC)
Texas vs Tennessee/Georgetown
Ohio State vs BYU/Missouri
St. Louis (A10) vs SMU
6 seed vs 11 seed
Louisville vs Minnesota
Oklahoma vs Arizona State
Oklahoma State vs Providence
Connecticut vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Memphis vs California
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Florida State
UCLA vs Xavier
Pittsburgh vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Massachusettes vs Stanford
New Mexico vs Colorado
North Carolina vs Kansas State
VCU vs George Washington
First Four Out
LSU
Clemson
Indiana
Oregon
Next Four Out
Baylor
North Carolina St
Dayton
Richmond
Also Considered
Boise State
Wake Forest
St. John's
UTEP
Mississippi
St. Mary's
Arkansas
Louisiana Tech
Ohio
West Virginia
New Mexico State
Maryland
St. Joseph's
Thursday, February 6, 2014
It's a Big Bubble Evening
Lots of bubble action as a couple of our last 6 in and first 6 out are in action. On the positive side of the bubble, LSU travels to Georgia needing a win to stay in the bracket. SMU hosts Temple and probably can’t afford a bad loss either. Arizona State has Oregon State at home as well and might be able to hold a bid with a loss. They shouldn’t chance it though. Our last team in, BYU gets a home game against Santa Clara. They have no room for error as the 68th team today.
On the negative side, our first team out, Oregon, gets a big chance to leap into the bracket with a road game against Arizona. A win here propels them 4-5 spots and probably knocks BYU out of my current bracket, regardless of what BYU does. The Ducks need tonight, bad. St. Mary’s and Louisiana Tech are also in action and need not only tonight but probably the rest of the regular season as well.
Florida Gators
Brian bought in early on Florida. Myself? Not so much but I am now. My concerns were injuries and the Gators continuing parade of suspensions and eligibility issues. Those appear settled and with the recent clearing of freshman big man, Chris Walker, the Gators and coach Billy Donovan appear headed for another shot at a long March run.
The Gators have won 14 straight games, with a few close shaves in conference play. Their only two losses came in non-conference play and both on the road. They lost at the buzzer to UConn and at Wisconsin where they were without Dorian Finney-Smith and Scottie Wilbekin. While Badger propagandists, Tom Oates and Jeff Potrykus point to the Badgers missing Gasser in last year's game at Gainseville, let's be serious for a moment. Play that game today at full strength and the Gators are favored, even in Madison. The Gators have a home win over Kansas and neutral court win over Memphis. They've yet to play Kentucky, traveling to Lexington on Saturday the 15th. According to KenPom, that is their only game where they won't be favored to win remaining on the docket. A 1-seed could be in play for Florida.
In KenPom, the Gators are currently 5th overall. They're ranked higher on defense, 7th overall in adjusted d. They hold opponents to a 43.5% effective fg%, 9th in the nation. They force turnovers, with a defensive turnover 5 of 21.5%, 31st. They're about average on the defensive glass. Opponents have an offensive rebounding % of 30%, 110th nationally. They do a good job defensively without fouling. In the paint, teams only shoot 41%. That's 5th best in the nation.
They're a little worse on offense but they've been gradually improving since the beginning of the season as they get players back. Early KP numbers had them in the 100's but they've moved up to 26th. They play a slow tempo. They average 63 possessions per game, 328th in the nation. They average 71ppg. They're effective fg% is 51.5%, 90th. The Gators turnover % is 17.8%, about average. They are better on the offensive glass, with an offensive rebounding % of 37.3%. They also get to the line but only make 66% of their free throws. That's not good as they ranks 290th in the nation.
I noted they added Chris "Sky" Walker, a big man earlier this week as he got his first action against Missouri. He looked pretty raw but you can see the athleticism and explosiveness. I'm not certain how much he'l help but if he gives them 10-15 good minutes, the Gators just got a whole lot better and deeper. Their core are three seniors, G Scottie Wilbekin, F Casey Prather and C Patric Young. Wilbekin runs the show and shoots 38% from deep. Prather is the leading scorer, getting 15.2ppg with 5 boards per game. He has an effective fg% of 62.6% which is slightly worse than his FT shooting. Young shoots 56% at the line. Both see the ball a lot, so this could be an issue in close games. Young gives them 10.7 & 6.6. Sophomore Dorian Finney-Smith also struggles at the line but is a good offensive rebounder. Fellow sophomore Michael Frazier is arguably the SEC'sbest deep threat, hitting 43% from distance, scoring 12.6ppg. There's a lot of talent here, a lot of good college basketball players.
The Gators have made 3 straight Elite 8's, being stopped short of the Final 4 by Butler, Louisville & Michigan. Michigan shot them off the court last year in what was one of the tournaments bigger surprises. The Gators certainly have another Elite 8 run in them and possibly deeper. They've played some close games recently and mixed in some impressive routes as well. There's an awful lot to like about this team and they seem capable of handling pressure.
The Gators have won 14 straight games, with a few close shaves in conference play. Their only two losses came in non-conference play and both on the road. They lost at the buzzer to UConn and at Wisconsin where they were without Dorian Finney-Smith and Scottie Wilbekin. While Badger propagandists, Tom Oates and Jeff Potrykus point to the Badgers missing Gasser in last year's game at Gainseville, let's be serious for a moment. Play that game today at full strength and the Gators are favored, even in Madison. The Gators have a home win over Kansas and neutral court win over Memphis. They've yet to play Kentucky, traveling to Lexington on Saturday the 15th. According to KenPom, that is their only game where they won't be favored to win remaining on the docket. A 1-seed could be in play for Florida.
In KenPom, the Gators are currently 5th overall. They're ranked higher on defense, 7th overall in adjusted d. They hold opponents to a 43.5% effective fg%, 9th in the nation. They force turnovers, with a defensive turnover 5 of 21.5%, 31st. They're about average on the defensive glass. Opponents have an offensive rebounding % of 30%, 110th nationally. They do a good job defensively without fouling. In the paint, teams only shoot 41%. That's 5th best in the nation.
They're a little worse on offense but they've been gradually improving since the beginning of the season as they get players back. Early KP numbers had them in the 100's but they've moved up to 26th. They play a slow tempo. They average 63 possessions per game, 328th in the nation. They average 71ppg. They're effective fg% is 51.5%, 90th. The Gators turnover % is 17.8%, about average. They are better on the offensive glass, with an offensive rebounding % of 37.3%. They also get to the line but only make 66% of their free throws. That's not good as they ranks 290th in the nation.
I noted they added Chris "Sky" Walker, a big man earlier this week as he got his first action against Missouri. He looked pretty raw but you can see the athleticism and explosiveness. I'm not certain how much he'l help but if he gives them 10-15 good minutes, the Gators just got a whole lot better and deeper. Their core are three seniors, G Scottie Wilbekin, F Casey Prather and C Patric Young. Wilbekin runs the show and shoots 38% from deep. Prather is the leading scorer, getting 15.2ppg with 5 boards per game. He has an effective fg% of 62.6% which is slightly worse than his FT shooting. Young shoots 56% at the line. Both see the ball a lot, so this could be an issue in close games. Young gives them 10.7 & 6.6. Sophomore Dorian Finney-Smith also struggles at the line but is a good offensive rebounder. Fellow sophomore Michael Frazier is arguably the SEC'sbest deep threat, hitting 43% from distance, scoring 12.6ppg. There's a lot of talent here, a lot of good college basketball players.
The Gators have made 3 straight Elite 8's, being stopped short of the Final 4 by Butler, Louisville & Michigan. Michigan shot them off the court last year in what was one of the tournaments bigger surprises. The Gators certainly have another Elite 8 run in them and possibly deeper. They've played some close games recently and mixed in some impressive routes as well. There's an awful lot to like about this team and they seem capable of handling pressure.
Wednesday, February 5, 2014
Bubble: A-10 and More Edition
Today’s Bubble Snapshot figures heavily on the Atlantic 10. Our current bracket has the A-10 receiving 4 bids while 4 others fall in our First Four Out, Next Four Out, or Also Considered. Tonight’s action will go a long way to sorting the A-10 out. Richmond, Dayton, LaSalle, and St. Joseph’s are all on the wrong side of the bubble and all play winnable games. They need to win these games so when they play each other it means more. When all is said and done I think they end up with 5 bids.
In other bubble news Tennessee travels to Vanderbilt where it’s in their best interest to grab a road win. A loss might knock them out of the bracket. In the B1G, the Gophers go to Purdue to try and feast on the Big 10 bottom half. Time for Minnesota to show who they really are.
Out west we have Stanford at California which will be a good win for one of the teams. Both are on the bubble and knocking each other off can be helpful come March. Boise State hosts San Diego State and they need a win bad. They have no top 50 wins and this would be huge. I think they get it done at home and jump up to one of the First Four Out.
In the game of the night Wichita State travels to Indiana State. This would be the Sycamore’s last chance to get a signature win. If they lose its auto-bid or bust for them. No prediction; just sit back and enjoy.
Tuesday, February 4, 2014
Bubble Quick Hitters
Teams in that have a little room for a loss
Providence hosting St.John’s
North Carolina hosting Maryland
Ohio State at Iowa
Teams in that will fall out with a loss
Missouri at Florida
Teams out that could leap in with a win:
Baylor hosting Kansas
Teams out that need to win to stay relevant
Mississippi at Kentucky
Maryland at North Carolina
Clemson hosting Georgia Tech
Monday, February 3, 2014
Villanova
It's been an interesting year in the new Big East. One team that has thrived is the Villanova Wildcats. They're currently 19-2 and 7-1 in conference, tied for 1st. Villanova's two losses were a loss at Syracuse who lead the majority of the game and ran away and hid at the end and a game where Creighton simply couldn't miss. Villanova announced itself to the nation by winning the Battle for Atlantis where it pocketed wins over Kansas and Iowa.
Villanova is 9th overall in KenPom. They're slightly better offensively than defensively as they rate 8th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted d. Villanova lacks overall depth in size but does a lot of things well to negate this problem.
On offense, they're 24th in the nation in effective fg%. They're above average in protecting the ball. The WIldcats turnover % is 17.2%, 92nd. For a team that is supposed to have issues with size, they do a good job getting to their misses. Their offensive rebounding % is a healthy 34.4%. The national rate is 31.6%. Also, despite being perimeter oriented, they get to the line. The Wildcats FTA/FGA is 48%, 43rd best in the land. In the paint, they shoot 55%, 8th best overall. They share the ball. Their A/FGM is 61.4%, 17th best. There's a lot to like to their efficient offense. As for tempo, they average about 1 more possession per game than the national clip.
Teams have an effective fg% of 46.2% against Villanova. They force some turnovers. Opponents turnover % is 20.3%. They also do an adequate to above-average job on the defensive glass holding opponents to an offensive rebounding % of 29.7%. That's 93rd best. Again, considering concerns about their lack of height, that's good. Teams only shoot 42.8% in the paint against Villanova. That ranks 20th.
The main cog in the Villanoa attack is senior guard, James Bell.Bell averages 15.3ppg while shooting 38% from 3. Bell is a good rebounder, too, getting nearly 6 a game. 6'7" junior F, JayVaughn Pinkston also gives the Wildcats 15 and 6, shooting 54% from 2. Junior G Darrun Hilliard adds 13.5 while shooting 38.5% from deep. Freshman Josh Hart has an effective fg 5 of 64.4%. He's 38-54 from 2 and 21-54 from deep. Surprisingly, he only shoots 64% at the line. The Wildcats big man is sophomore Daniel Ochefu. Ochefu isn't a huge offensive presence, scoring 6ppg but adds rebounding on both sides of the ball and is a threat to swat some shots. His offensive rebounding % is 12.5% and defensively, it's 19.5%. He should only get better.
Their best player is arguably, sophomore guard Ryan Arcidianco. He runs the point and gets 10 points per game but is capable of carrying a larger load on the offensive end. He'll be a thorn in the side of Big East opponents this and the next two years.
Villanova was pegged as a tournament team prior to the season and have probably exceeded expectations. They've answered concerns about their size and it would be interesting to see how much better their defensive numbers would be if you took the Creighton game out (That game was truly remarkable and a n outlier). No reason they can't be a Sweet 16 team and maybe better. They lose Bell next season but should still be better next year. Things are looking bright in Philly for Jay Wright and the Wildcats.
Villanova is 9th overall in KenPom. They're slightly better offensively than defensively as they rate 8th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted d. Villanova lacks overall depth in size but does a lot of things well to negate this problem.
On offense, they're 24th in the nation in effective fg%. They're above average in protecting the ball. The WIldcats turnover % is 17.2%, 92nd. For a team that is supposed to have issues with size, they do a good job getting to their misses. Their offensive rebounding % is a healthy 34.4%. The national rate is 31.6%. Also, despite being perimeter oriented, they get to the line. The Wildcats FTA/FGA is 48%, 43rd best in the land. In the paint, they shoot 55%, 8th best overall. They share the ball. Their A/FGM is 61.4%, 17th best. There's a lot to like to their efficient offense. As for tempo, they average about 1 more possession per game than the national clip.
Teams have an effective fg% of 46.2% against Villanova. They force some turnovers. Opponents turnover % is 20.3%. They also do an adequate to above-average job on the defensive glass holding opponents to an offensive rebounding % of 29.7%. That's 93rd best. Again, considering concerns about their lack of height, that's good. Teams only shoot 42.8% in the paint against Villanova. That ranks 20th.
The main cog in the Villanoa attack is senior guard, James Bell.Bell averages 15.3ppg while shooting 38% from 3. Bell is a good rebounder, too, getting nearly 6 a game. 6'7" junior F, JayVaughn Pinkston also gives the Wildcats 15 and 6, shooting 54% from 2. Junior G Darrun Hilliard adds 13.5 while shooting 38.5% from deep. Freshman Josh Hart has an effective fg 5 of 64.4%. He's 38-54 from 2 and 21-54 from deep. Surprisingly, he only shoots 64% at the line. The Wildcats big man is sophomore Daniel Ochefu. Ochefu isn't a huge offensive presence, scoring 6ppg but adds rebounding on both sides of the ball and is a threat to swat some shots. His offensive rebounding % is 12.5% and defensively, it's 19.5%. He should only get better.
Their best player is arguably, sophomore guard Ryan Arcidianco. He runs the point and gets 10 points per game but is capable of carrying a larger load on the offensive end. He'll be a thorn in the side of Big East opponents this and the next two years.
Villanova was pegged as a tournament team prior to the season and have probably exceeded expectations. They've answered concerns about their size and it would be interesting to see how much better their defensive numbers would be if you took the Creighton game out (That game was truly remarkable and a n outlier). No reason they can't be a Sweet 16 team and maybe better. They lose Bell next season but should still be better next year. Things are looking bright in Philly for Jay Wright and the Wildcats.
Tonight's Games
There’s not a lot of games for Bubble teams but Iowa State vs Oklahoma State should be worth watching. Xavier travels to Villanova and may need to win to stay out of the 11-12 seed level. If the Musketeers can pull off a road upset they could see their computer numbers sky rocket. Currently they are a 10 seed but have the mobility to move 2 seeds with a signature win. The other game of note is Georgetown at DePaul. The Hoyas are currently one of my Next Four Out and a win won’t move them up but a loss will be crippling. Georgetown got a big win over Michigan State this weekend and need to avoid a hangover tonight.
Monday Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Syracuse (ACC) vs Southern(SWAC)/Weber St(Bsky)
Arizona (P12) vs Chattanoga(SoCon)/CoastCar(Bsouth)
Wichita State (MVC) vs Robert Morris (NEC)
Florida (SEC) vs Utah Valley (WAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
San Diego St (MWC) vs Murray State (OVC)
Kansas (B12) vs Stony Brook (Aest)
Villanova vs NC-Central (MEAC)
Cincinnati (AAC) vs IPFW (Summit)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Michigan (B1G) vs American (Pat)
Michigan State vs UCSB (Bwest)
Iowa State vs Canisius (MAAC)
Creighton (Beast) vs Georgia St (Sbelt)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Kentucky vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland)
Iowa vs Delaware (Colonial)
Duke vs Mercer(Asun)
Oklahoma vs Toledo (MAC)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wisconsin vs UW-Green Bay (Horizon)
Virginia vs BYU/LSU
St. Louis (A10) vs SMU/Tennessee
Texas vs Arizona State
6 seed vs 11 seed
Louisville vs Missouri
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Florida State
Oklahoma State vs Minnesota
Connecticut vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Memphis vs Stanford
Massachusettes vs California
UCLA vs Xavier
Pittsburgh vs Southern Miss (Cusa)
8 seed vs 9 seed
New Mexico vs Providence
Ohio State vs Colorado
North Carolina vs Kansas State
VCU vs George Washington
First Four Out
Oregon
Baylor
Maryland
Clemson
Next Four Out
Indiana
Georgetown
Wyoming
Dayton
Also Considered
Boise State
Wake Forest
LaSalle
North Carolina St
UTEP
Mississippi
St. Mary's
UNLV
Indiana State
Richmond
Arkansas
Louisiana Tech
Ohio
Sunday, February 2, 2014
Quick Sunday Musings
- Duke lost at Syracuse but showed quite a bit. They lost Jefferson and Parker for a good chunk of the 2nd half and all of overtime and still had a chance to win. Jefferson is becoming a force on the offensive glass. Marshall Plumlee is basically a zero on offense so Jefferson needs to stay out of foul trouble. Duke is up to 3rd in KenPom, right behind Syracuse.
- The B1G is overrated. Don't believe the hype
- Arizona lost late on the Pac-12 network but remains #1 in KenPom. More importantly, they might have lost Brandon Ashley for the season. They've been playing with fire lately so a loss at Cal isn't a huge surprise.
- Kudos to Texas for their 4th straight win over a ranked opponent.
- With a decisive win over Memphis, SMU is making a strong case to dance. Can the American get 5 teams? They might
- UMass lost at St. Joe's and now have 3 losses in the A-10. They have a RPI of 8 so they should be safe but they haven't played well in conference
Saturday, February 1, 2014
The Tough Guys of the American, Cincinnati
The cliche speak from coaches about and announcers about "toughness" grates at me. What exactly defines toughness? Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin told ESPN's Jeff Goodman following Thursday's win at Louisville, he had the 3 "toughest seniors" in college basketball in Titus Rubles, Sean Kilpatrick and Justin Jackson. After watching them jump on Lousiville, withstand the Louisville rush and ultimately put them away on defense, I think Coach Cronin isn't full of hyperbole when describing his seniors.
Cincinnati is currently 20-2 and undefeated in conference play (The horribly named The American Athletic Conference). Cincinnati's two losses this year came at New Mexico who was handling nearly everyone in December and a "neutral" court loss to in-city rival Xavier. The Bearcats have won at Louisville and at Memphis in conference and have a win at MSG over Pitt. You may recall that 48 posssession masterrpiece from Cincinnati. They won 44-43 in a game only Dick Bennett could love.
As you might imagine, the Bearcats are one of the nations best defensive teams. Teams effective fg% against is 43.9%, 17th best in the land, built partly on teams shooting only 41% in the paints, 4th best in the nation. They also force turnovers. Bearcats defensive turnover % is 23.9%, 7th best in the land. They also have a block % of 17.2% and a steal % of 12.9%, 6th and 8th best. Cincinnati is going to make you work on offense. They have one issue. They're 241st in defensive rebounding % so teams can get longer possessions against them if they're strong on the offensive glass. They are 5th overall in KenPom adjusted d rankings.
Offensively, they're not as dynamic. They're 92nd in adjusted offense and would rather play in the low 60s. They average 54 possessions per game, 302nd. They're a poor shooting team. They're 215th in effective offensive fg%. They protect the ball okay, just above average in turnover %. WEhile they're soft on the defensive glass, the Bearcats are 7th best at getting 2nd chance points. They have an offensive rebounding % of 40.3%.
I mentioned the 3 seniors earlier and they truly are the heart and soul of this ball club. Sean Kilpatrick is the go-to-guy. He scores 19.5ppg. He's joined by two forwards, Justin Jackson and Titus Rubles. Jackson is a monster in the paint. He "only" gets 11.1 and 7 boards per game but has a block % of 13.7%, 7th best and a steal % of 4.1%, 38th best. His effective fg% is 55.1% and has an offensive rebounding % of 14.3%, 38th best. If you're so inclined, watch him play without the ball on offense and defense. The guy knows the game. He is awful at the foul line, shooting 49% and that'll be a cause for concern. Rubles adds 7 and 6.
If you're looking for a Final Four sleeper in March, the Bearcats might be your team. I have questions about their offense but there isn't any questioning the defense. If you believe in toughness and senior leadership, this is your team.
Cincinnati is currently 20-2 and undefeated in conference play (The horribly named The American Athletic Conference). Cincinnati's two losses this year came at New Mexico who was handling nearly everyone in December and a "neutral" court loss to in-city rival Xavier. The Bearcats have won at Louisville and at Memphis in conference and have a win at MSG over Pitt. You may recall that 48 posssession masterrpiece from Cincinnati. They won 44-43 in a game only Dick Bennett could love.
As you might imagine, the Bearcats are one of the nations best defensive teams. Teams effective fg% against is 43.9%, 17th best in the land, built partly on teams shooting only 41% in the paints, 4th best in the nation. They also force turnovers. Bearcats defensive turnover % is 23.9%, 7th best in the land. They also have a block % of 17.2% and a steal % of 12.9%, 6th and 8th best. Cincinnati is going to make you work on offense. They have one issue. They're 241st in defensive rebounding % so teams can get longer possessions against them if they're strong on the offensive glass. They are 5th overall in KenPom adjusted d rankings.
Offensively, they're not as dynamic. They're 92nd in adjusted offense and would rather play in the low 60s. They average 54 possessions per game, 302nd. They're a poor shooting team. They're 215th in effective offensive fg%. They protect the ball okay, just above average in turnover %. WEhile they're soft on the defensive glass, the Bearcats are 7th best at getting 2nd chance points. They have an offensive rebounding % of 40.3%.
I mentioned the 3 seniors earlier and they truly are the heart and soul of this ball club. Sean Kilpatrick is the go-to-guy. He scores 19.5ppg. He's joined by two forwards, Justin Jackson and Titus Rubles. Jackson is a monster in the paint. He "only" gets 11.1 and 7 boards per game but has a block % of 13.7%, 7th best and a steal % of 4.1%, 38th best. His effective fg% is 55.1% and has an offensive rebounding % of 14.3%, 38th best. If you're so inclined, watch him play without the ball on offense and defense. The guy knows the game. He is awful at the foul line, shooting 49% and that'll be a cause for concern. Rubles adds 7 and 6.
If you're looking for a Final Four sleeper in March, the Bearcats might be your team. I have questions about their offense but there isn't any questioning the defense. If you believe in toughness and senior leadership, this is your team.
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