Revisiting Louisville

After their loss to Kentucky, I said I thought Louisvill would surprise some people this year. They proceeded to play like garbage for a couple of weeks reinforcing the Kurly curse, bottoming out with a 31 point loss at Providence. They've recovered nicely and depending how they finish the year, in position for a decent seeding for the tournament.

Their overall RPI is 21, with 5 wins against the top 50. KenPom has them 26th overall. This Louisville team wins with its defense. Their AdjD is 11th while the offense is 91st. They hold teams to an effective fg% of 42.8, which is 6th best in the nation. Their FG% defense is 37.6, which is 6th best in the nation and get 9.2 steals per game, 7th best. They force turnovers at a decent clip with a turnover % of 23, about 2.5 more per game than national average. They're awful on the glass on the defensive side, as opposing teams have a 33.4% rebounding % against them, 226th in the land. They also put teams on the line, averaging 18.5 fouls per game. It's not terrible, as their FTA/FGA% is 35.6, 164th in the nation.

Offensively, they have issues. Their effective FG% is 49.1, about average. Their turnover % is 21.5, 235th in the nation. Their overall turnovers per game is 14.9, 256th in the nation. The good news? They shoot 32.8% from beyond the arc, 231st in the nation. Okay, now the good news. They shoot 68.1% from the line which is 210th in the nation. They DO get to the line a decent amount. Their FTA/FGA % is 38.2, above the national average. While they board poorly on the defensive end, they do better on the offensive side. They have an offensive rebounding % of 36.7, 29th in the land.

G Peyton Siva runs the show but is strictly a pass first/only PG. Swingman Kyle Kuric is the leading scorer. Guards Russ Smith and Chris Smith flank Siva. Russ is a terrible shooter, shooting 37.9%. Chris isn't much better, shooting 42.1% overall but 41.5% from behind the arc.

While Louisville has played better in the last month, they'll need some favorable matchups to make a run in March and if they come out cold, they'll have aa tough time advancing beyond the first weekend.