Long Beach State is currently sitting at 16-6 and first place in the Big West. Although they are projected to win the Big West automatic bid a closer look at their profile suggests they should get some at-large consideration should they slip up in the conference tournament. KenPom has them rated as the 40th most efficiency team coming in at 32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 75th in defensive efficiency. Their RPI is 36th and SOS sits at a very respectable 62nd which is phenomenal for a Mid-Major team. What is the most telling number though is the Non-Conference SOS which is currently #1 in the nation. Long Beach State scheduled some tough opponents including 6 that are currently in the top 25. Close losses at San Diego State (by 4), at Louisville (by 9), at Kansas (by 8), at North Carolina (by 6), and at a neutral site vs Kansas State are offset slightly by wins over Xavier, Pittsburgh and Auburn. The Beach will have 1 more shot at a monumental win over Bracketbuster weekend when they travel to Creighton. I believe a win here will give the selection committee enough to think about come Selection Sunday if they don’t grab the auto-bid. If they lose to Creighton however they may look back at those losses as a missed opportunity.
Should Long Beach get into the tournament I have them projected as a very dangerous 12 seed. They are battle tested and will not roll over for a 5 seed in round 1. They'll be a very sexy 12 over 5 pick come March 15 and potentially a Sweet Sixteen team come the following weekend
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